EPAC: NARDA - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 94, 2019092612, , BEST, 0, 133N, 969W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS034, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 94, 2019092618, , BEST, 0, 133N, 973W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS034, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 94, 2019092700, , BEST, 0, 133N, 976W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS034, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 94, 2019092706, , BEST, 0, 133N, 979W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS034, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 94, 2019092712, , BEST, 0, 133N, 982W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, SPAWNINVEST, ep792019 to ep942019,

[Nancy Smar]

In addition, the 1006 mb low
pressure near 15N94W is forecast to likely to become a tropical
depression or storm over the weekend or early next week while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward near 13 kt near or
along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash
flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of
Central America and southern and SW Mexico during the next
several days. This developing low pressure system has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
and a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next
5 days.

.18 HOUR FORECAST FIRST LOW PRES DISSIPATED. SECOND LOW
PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 13.5N98W 1005 MB. FROM
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W SW
TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM
04N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
9 FT IN MIXED SW SWELL. FROM 15.5N TO 22.5N BETWEEN 105W AND
112.5W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N99W 1003 MB. FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 106W SW TO W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 15N
BETWEEN 89W AND 100W AND FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W
SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
17N102W 1000 MB. WITHIN 75 NM NE...300 NM SE...270 NM SW...AND
60 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 110W SW WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN
87W AND 105W AND FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT - VALID TIME:27/1530Z
Intensity: 18 TO 23 KNOTS. Motion: THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.

WTPN21 PHNC 271600
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 240 NM RADIUS OF 13.3N 98.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 98.2W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281530Z.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS/ECMWF have lashed on to the idea of a Lorena redux for a while.

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near
the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with an
elongated surface trough. A low pressure system is forecast to
develop along this trough during the next day or two, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this
weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph near the southern and southwestern
coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with
the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near
the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Astromanía]

This is dangerous, the question is how much this will strengthen before land interaction, it could be a cat 1 but a cat 2 is possible as well if it moves further away from coast

[somethingfunny]

Has a Potential Tropical Cyclone designation ever been used in the EPAC? Could this one fit the criteria being so close to land?

[cycloneye]

A rather large area of disturbed weather extends from Central
America westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. A broad area
of low pressure is trying to form south-southeast of Acapulco in
association with this disturbance, but there is no evidence of a
well defined center at this time. Environmental conditions are very
favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form
within this area of disturbed weather during the next day or so,
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph
near the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along this portion
of the coast should monitor the progress of the disturbance, since
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required at any time on
Saturday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the
possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[wxman57]

Has a Potential Tropical Cyclone designation ever been used in the EPAC? Could this one fit the criteria being so close to land?

I don't believe that the NHC issues PTC advisories outside the Atlantic Basin. No reason why they couldn't. Looks like it moves inland as a TS near Zihuatanejo by noon Sunday. Don't know why development chances go up after 48 hrs, as it may be inland by 36 hrs.

[Iune]

Has a Potential Tropical Cyclone designation ever been used in the EPAC? Could this one fit the criteria being so close to land?

Lidia in 2018 was designated as a potential tropical cyclone, but I don’t believe any others have been since.

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 16, 2019092812, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1000W, 30, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, TRANSITIONED, epC42019 to ep162019,

[AnnularCane]

Has a Potential Tropical Cyclone designation ever been used in the EPAC? Could this one fit the criteria being so close to land?

Yes. Yes it has. Interesting this was designated as a PTC since the question of that was just brought up.

[Astromanía]

Very close to land, I don´t think this will be something anymore

[Nancy Smar]

234
WTPZ41 KNHC 290242
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Late afternoon visible satellite imagery and ship observations
show that the disturbance's circulation has become better defined.
In addition, there has been an increase in convective banding around
the western portion of the system. As a result, the system is
being classified as a tropical storm. The initial wind speed is
maintained at 35 kt, which is in agreement with earlier
scatterometer data, and the latest TAFB Dvorak classification.

Narda is located within an area of moderate northeasterly
shear and is likely to interact with the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico on Sunday. As a result, only slight strengthening
is indicated within the next 24 hours, followed by some weakening
as the system moves near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.
The latter portion of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain.
If the system tracks to the right of the official forecast it would
likely weaken and dissipate over southern Mexico, but if it remains
farther west or just offshore, it could be stronger than indicated
below.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. A strong
deep-layer ridge over the southeastern United States should
continue to steer the disturbance northwestward during the next
couple of days. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both take
the system inland within the next 24 hours, however the ensemble
means favor a track near, but just offshore of the coast. The NHC
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but the confidence
after 36-48 hours is quite low due to the potential land
interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...NARDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 103.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Pacific coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of western and northwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of Narda. Watches or warnings may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 103.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will move over or near portions of the western and
southwestern coasts of Mexico tonight, then emerge over the
Pacific early Monday. It is then forecast to move near or just
offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected while the
center is over land. Slow strengthening is forecast once the center
moves back over the Pacific.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday
night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from
Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

Narda has become less organized during the past several hours. The
primary center has been over the mountains of southwestern Mexico
between Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo, and the associated
convection has been decreasing. A 17Z ASCAT-C overpass suggests
two other vorticity centers are located offshore, one near a
cluster of convection to the southwest of Manzanillo and the other
to the southwest of Lazaro Cardenas. The scatterometer data showed
35 kt winds southeast of the primary center, and given the decrease
in organization since that time it is estimated that Narda has
dropped below tropical storm strength.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 315/17 kt, which is
faster than in the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days,
Narda will be steered generally northwestward close to the coast
of mainland Mexico along the southwestern periphery of a large high
pressure area. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough
approaching the northern Baja California peninsula from the west
should cause the system to turn north-northwestward and move over
northwestern mainland Mexico. The track guidance has shifted to the
right since the last advisory. However, due to the uncertainty in
what will happen to the center, including the possibility it could
re-form offshore, the new forecast track will be to the left of the
model consensus. The new track will be faster than the previous
track based on a combination of the initial motion and faster
guidance.

The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast
will follow the previous forecast in calling for Narda to weaken
while over Mexico, and then re-intensify a little when the
system emerges over water. However, there remain two alternative
scenarios. The first of these is that the circulation dissipates
completely as it passes over the mountains of western Mexico. The
second is that the center re-forms offshore, either from the
vorticity center currently southwest of Manzanillo or, as suggested
by some of the global models, from a new center north of Cabo
Corrientes. If such a re-formation occurs, this could lead to
significant changes in both the intensity and the track forecasts.

The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should
result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to
15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is expected to
continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 19.1N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1800Z 23.0N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 01/0600Z 24.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 25.7N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[zeehag]

according to sat loops we are under some little fingers of this narda storm.. so far is easy. i am hoping it doesnot do anything evil on us.
i hadto stop prepping because my patricia survivor cat, bubba, bit me and acted same as before patricia arrived. that makes me think.... he doesnot do that. the other one is a wildling and is fine.

[zeehag]

ok so storm is here..slowed to 15 kt forward motion and is shrinking in size on sat loops views. wind freshening. raining. hoping it leaves before getting any grande ideas.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Topolobampo to Guaymas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near the coast of
northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today. Weakening should begin
by Tuesday as Narda interacts with the mountains of western Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently
reported at San Blas, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the
Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals
10 to 15 inches.

Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated
storm totals 10 to 15 inches.

Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches.

Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Recent microwave data and surface observations from Mexico indicate
that the center of Narda is located just offshore of the west coast
of mainland Mexico, north of Islas Marias. The cyclone continues
to produce a large area of deep convection near and to the west of
its center. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB
and SAB support tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity
has been raised to 35 kt, making Narda a tropical storm once again.
An automated observing site near San Blas, Mexico recently reported
a wind gust to 38 kt, and a pressure of 1002.8 mb was observed at
Islas Marias earlier this morning. Some additional strengthening is
possible today while Narda moves over the warm waters of the Gulf
of California, however, interaction with land is likely to occur by
Tuesday, and gradual weakening should begin by that time. If the
center moves to the right of the NHC track forecast, landfall and
weakening would occur much sooner.

Narda is moving northwestward at 13 kt. The tropical storm should
continue to move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of
a large mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United
States. Although the various global model ensemble means take Narda
farther westward over the Gulf of California during the next couple
of days, the operational ECMWF and UKMET models show the cyclone
moving inland over mainland Mexico within the next day or so. This
is the solution that the NHC track forecast leans toward, and it is
possible that Narda will move onshore farther south than implied by
the exact forecast track.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall,
due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and
northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's
circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in
a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 22.5N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 24.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 25.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/0000Z 27.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1200Z 28.4N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 107.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 107.4 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico
through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this
evening, but Narda should begin to weaken later tonight and
Tuesday as it intersects with land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning through Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

A couple of microwave passes that arrived shortly after the release
of the previous advisory showed that Narda had become better
organized this morning. The imagery revealed well-defined banding
and a mid-level eye feature that was located just offshore the coast
of mainland Mexico. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt, respectively. Recent ASCAT data
supported an intensity on the lower end of this range, therefore the
advisory wind speed has been set at 45 kt. A 10-minute average wind
of 32 kt with a gust to 43 kt was reported at Mazatlan late this
morning as the center of Narda passed nearby. Since the center is so
close to the coast, little additional strengthening is expected. By
late tonight or early Tuesday, Narda is likely to move just inland
along the coast and weakening should begin by that time. The system
is forecast to become a remnant low within a couple of days and
dissipate over northwestern Mexico shortly thereafter. Weakening
and dissipation could occur much sooner if Narda moves to the right
of the current NHC forecast track.

Narda continues to move quickly northwestward or 325/14 kt, around
the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone. There
has been no change to the track forecast reasoning as Narda should
continue heading northwestward along the northwestern coast of
mainland Mexico. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement
this cycle, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the 1200
UTC ECMWF model, and is essentially an update of the previous
forecast.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall,
due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and
northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's
circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in
a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 24.0N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 25.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/0600Z 28.2N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1800Z 29.4N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Astromanía]

Wow this is making to much damage to western and southwestern coast of Mexico. It has provoque the missing of many people due to the strong rain and wind. Narda is a Mexican tendency on twitter right now.
Edit: One death reported so far in Oaxaca.