WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

93W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14N.170E.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a redesignated 92W.

[Tailspin]

About time a very soild major maybe on the cards.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Over the last few days a few models have been suggesting the
possibility of the development of a tropical cyclone next week. Models
varied wildly on the position of the system from model run to model
run. The last few model iterations though are starting to come into
rough agreement and portray a tropical cyclone passing over the
northern Marianas sometime next week. It is still to early to say
what strength and the timing of this system as it still only exists
in the model world. If models continue to indicate the development of
the circulation and it enters the real world the forecast may need to
be updated for next week.

[euro6208]

93W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 03, 2019:

Location: 14.0°N 169.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[euro6208]

GFS continues to make this into a superstorm while EURO goes back to square 1.

[euro6208]

NWS sides with EURO.

The next forecast issue for the Marianas the next few days will be
the future development and movement of Invest 93W. While both the
GFS and ECMWF move 93W westward with some development, the GFS is
far more aggressive with development than the ECMWF, taking 93W
across Antahan in the Marianas early Tuesday morning as a typhoon. In
view of the current weak and disorganized state of 93W, this seems
unrealistic, especially in view of the known bias of the GFS to
develop systems too rapidly. The ECMWF, on the other hand is slow
with development, taking 93W farther north as a 15-kt circulation
Tuesday night. For now, have leaned toward the ECMWF, taking 93W
north of the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday as a tropical
depression. As a result, have refreshed the winds from the 02/12Z
ECMWF out to beyond the 7-day forecast period, which in the near
term yields about the same forecast as before with gentle north to
northeast winds. Have introduced isolated showers and thunderstorms
from Monday through Thursday as 93W moves by north of the region.
There is, of course, a high level of uncertainty with this forecast,
with the models in such poor agreement and 93W still just a weak
disturbance.

[Highteeld]

Brought back to life on the 12z euro.

[Hayabusa]

At least guaranteed unsettled weather on the Marianas, whether it would affect the whole or most of the archipelago remains to be seen

[euro6208]

18Z GFS peaks at 922mb.

[Hayabusa]

Wow what the UKMET, strongest UKMET run I've ever seen, 887 mb?!

[1900hurricane]

It has pretty good vorticity already. Even with the subsidence around, that's a good sign for it later on. Also worth noting in the southwestern portion of these loops: low level westerlies.

[Hayabusa]

Finally

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZOCT2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751ZOCT2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.0N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1242 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED REGION OF
FLARING CONVECTION. A 040532Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL
IMAGE REVEALS THE CONVECTION IS STILL STRUGGLING TO COALESCE. INVEST
93W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

EURO...

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1180057405037654016

[Highteeld]

EURO...

https://i.imgur.com/kmyogpz.png

High res Euro down to 913.5, UKmet down to 901 mb!

NavGem so strong I can't really make out the sfc pressure...

[Highteeld]

EURO...

https://i.imgur.com/kmyogpz.png

High res Euro down to 913.5, UKmet down to 901 mb!

NavGem so strong I can't really make out the sfc pressure...

https://i.imgur.com/68QEhGZ.png

Rocket fuel out there-- no surprise considering there's been no activity to upwell

[mrbagyo]

JMA - conservative as usual


meanwhile PAGASA-WRF is also bullish with 93W

[Highteeld]

EURO...

https://i.imgur.com/kmyogpz.png

High res Euro down to 913.5, UKmet down to 901 mb!

NavGem so strong I can't really make out the sfc pressure...

https://i.imgur.com/68QEhGZ.png

Rocket fuel out there-- no surprise considering there's been no activity to upwell

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1.png