WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

150 knots would be the floor target for this storm

[euro6208]

A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Alamagan in the northern CNMI.
Typhoon conditions, including destructive winds of 74 mph or more,
are possible within 48 hours, around Monday evening.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan
in the CNMI, and for Pagan and Agrihan in the northern CNMI. Tropical
storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 mph or more, remain
possible within 48 hours, around Monday afternoon.

[Highteeld]

Pretty big tower going off in the northern "blob" with a few -90*C pixels measured

[euro6208]

Closer and stronger to the main islands. Anatahan right in the path.



WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835
NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH FORMATIVE
BANDS, MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURE
IN THE
0500802Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS
IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR SATELLITE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10KT) NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
AT 30C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 48,
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 105KTS BY TAU 72.
B. AFTER TAU 72, TD 20W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
KOREAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, IN
ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WILL
INITIATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION POTENTIALLY REACHING SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY OF 130KTS BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 300NM BY END OF FORECAST. HOWEVER, IN VIEW
OF THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL STORM TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Highteeld]

Liking the new JTWC website look:

[Highteeld]

Liking the new JTWC website look:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

TPPN10 PGTW 051211

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (E OF GUAM)

B. 05/1140Z

C. 14.54N

D. 159.01E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS A 1.5 AND PT A 2.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RICHARDSON

[1900hurricane]

[euro6208]

Liking the new JTWC website look:

Loving the new warning graphic with intensity included in every point.

[Highteeld]

Tons of latent heat being released over the same area as the CDO continues to establish itself. TS classification just around the corner

[Highteeld]

936 mb is the deepest I have ever seen the ICON go --

[Highteeld]

MET holding back NESDIS from classifying 20W as a T 2.5 -- JTWC too

TXPQ28 KNES 051505
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NONAME)

B. 05/1430Z

C. 14.9N

D. 158.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 4.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS BECAUSE CHANGE IN FT OF 1.0 OVER 6HRS REQUIRE
24HRS SINCE INITIAL T1.0 AND THE SYSTEM FT TO BE AT LEAST 2.0 6HRS
AGO. NEITHER OF THESE TWO CONDITIONS ARE MET IN THIS CASE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[Highteeld]

MET holding back NESDIS from classifying 20W as a T 2.5 -- JTWC too

TXPQ28 KNES 051505
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NONAME)

B. 05/1430Z

C. 14.9N

D. 158.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 4.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS BECAUSE CHANGE IN FT OF 1.0 OVER 6HRS REQUIRE
24HRS SINCE INITIAL T1.0 AND THE SYSTEM FT TO BE AT LEAST 2.0 6HRS
AGO. NEITHER OF THESE TWO CONDITIONS ARE MET IN THIS CASE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[1900hurricane]

I think 30 kt was good for 12Z, but it should be fully deserving of 35 kt at 18Z.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180519348324179969



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180520315052535808

[Highteeld]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180519348324179969
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180520315052535808

What's really impressive is how consistent the GFS has been with taking Hagabis down into the low to mid 920's. Ever since the FV-3 core has been implemented, the GFS has had a conservative bias, sometimes as much as 30-40 mb with strong, verifying storms (like Dorian et al.). This could go sub 900.

[mrbagyo]

The usually conservative JMA model is now on the bandwagon


PAGAsA-WRF

[Hayabusa]

Just WOW.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 159.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2019 0 15.5N 159.4E 1004 25
0000UTC 06.10.2019 12 14.9N 156.1E 1000 32
1200UTC 06.10.2019 24 15.2N 153.0E 993 48
0000UTC 07.10.2019 36 16.0N 149.5E 984 51
1200UTC 07.10.2019 48 16.6N 146.5E 970 68
0000UTC 08.10.2019 60 17.8N 143.2E 952 79
1200UTC 08.10.2019 72 18.6N 140.6E 933 87
0000UTC 09.10.2019 84 19.7N 139.0E 911 100
1200UTC 09.10.2019 96 20.9N 138.2E 897 109
0000UTC 10.10.2019 108 22.2N 137.1E 888 103
1200UTC 10.10.2019 120 23.1N 135.7E 889 103
0000UTC 11.10.2019 132 24.1N 133.9E 883 107
1200UTC 11.10.2019 144 25.3N 131.9E 887 107

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/Zx5EJdk.png
Just WOW.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 159.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2019 0 15.5N 159.4E 1004 25
0000UTC 06.10.2019 12 14.9N 156.1E 1000 32
1200UTC 06.10.2019 24 15.2N 153.0E 993 48
0000UTC 07.10.2019 36 16.0N 149.5E 984 51
1200UTC 07.10.2019 48 16.6N 146.5E 970 68
0000UTC 08.10.2019 60 17.8N 143.2E 952 79
1200UTC 08.10.2019 72 18.6N 140.6E 933 87
0000UTC 09.10.2019 84 19.7N 139.0E 911 100
1200UTC 09.10.2019 96 20.9N 138.2E 897 109
0000UTC 10.10.2019 108 22.2N 137.1E 888 103
1200UTC 10.10.2019 120 23.1N 135.7E 889 103
0000UTC 11.10.2019 132 24.1N 133.9E 883 107
1200UTC 11.10.2019 144 25.3N 131.9E 887 107

Holy balls!

[Highteeld]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180519348324179969
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180520315052535808

What's really impressive is how consistent the GFS has been with taking Hagabis down into the low to mid 920's. Ever since the FV-3 core has been implemented, the GFS has had a conservative bias, sometimes as much as 30-40 mb with strong, verifying storms (like Dorian et al.). This could go sub 900.

Given this logic, the UKmet's 883 mb run might not be too far out to lunch. However, we still have a ways to go -- but wow is this ever getting interesting!

[Highteeld]

Modeled ERC occurs at hour 66 at 903.8 mb.