WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 050041

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF GUAM)

B. 05/0000Z

C. 16.35N

D. 163.19E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[cycloneye]

If this system does what the models are showing,it will bump bigtime the ACE to consolidate as the #1 of all the basins in 2019.

[mrbagyo]

I hate when there's no floater in SSD

[1900hurricane]

I'd pull the trigger.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1180324189439451141

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 050326

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF GUAM)

B. 05/0250Z

C. 16.37N

D. 162.00E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 050259
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 05/0230Z

C. 16.1N

D. 162.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CURVED VIS BANDING MEASURES .3 FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 PT=1.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[1900hurricane]

I hate when there's no floater in SSD

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/20191005_102303.gif

Maybe they just added one?

[Hayabusa]

Still showing sub 900 mb, last night's 12Z the peak was 892 mb at the end of the run.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93W ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 163.1E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2019 0 15.9N 163.1E 1006 26
1200UTC 05.10.2019 12 15.7N 159.9E 1004 27
0000UTC 06.10.2019 24 15.5N 156.4E 999 35
1200UTC 06.10.2019 36 15.6N 153.7E 990 49
0000UTC 07.10.2019 48 16.3N 150.2E 980 59
1200UTC 07.10.2019 60 17.0N 147.2E 965 73
0000UTC 08.10.2019 72 18.3N 144.2E 947 85
1200UTC 08.10.2019 84 19.5N 141.8E 929 91
0000UTC 09.10.2019 96 20.8N 140.4E 907 102
1200UTC 09.10.2019 108 22.2N 140.0E 895 109
0000UTC 10.10.2019 120 23.4N 139.4E 895 106
1200UTC 10.10.2019 132 24.2N 138.6E 893 106
0000UTC 11.10.2019 144 25.3N 137.5E 895 103

[Hayabusa]

20W TWENTY 191005 0600 15.3N 161.1E WPAC 25 1005

[euro6208]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
425 PM ChST Sat Oct 5 2019

GUZ001>005-060600-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-Agrihan-Pagan-Alamagan-
425 PM ChST Sat Oct 5 2019

...DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS EARLY WEEK...

A circulation is located about 1000 miles east of Saipan near
15N161E. It is the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This system is currently moving
west around 10 MPH. For more information on the TCFA by the JTWC, see
bulletins under WMO header WTPN21 PGTW.

A tight cluster of deep convection has persisted near the center of
the circulation for the past 24 to 48 hours, and with little wind
shear aloft, further development is anticipated. Models have begun
to come into better agreement on the continued development of the
circulation and its eventual track. Model guidance maintains a
westward motion to bring the circulation, possibly as a tropical
storm, through the Marianas between Saipan and Agrihan Monday night
or Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from Tinian
northward by Monday, and at Guam and Rota Monday night. Breezy
conditions and heavy showers are expected at times Monday night and
Tuesday. Stronger winds will also cause seas to build early in the
week.

Because this system is still in its formative stage, there is still
uncertainty in how fast it will develop. Residents throughout the
Marianas should stay informed of the latest forecasts and statements
from the National Weather Service and your local emergency management
offices. The latest weather forecasts and advisories are available on
the WFO Guam website at www.weather.gov/gum/

$$

W. Aydlett

[somethingfunny]

Still showing sub 900 mb, last night's 12Z the peak was 892 mb at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/gnp0vu6.png

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93W ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 163.1E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2019 0 15.9N 163.1E 1006 26
1200UTC 05.10.2019 12 15.7N 159.9E 1004 27
0000UTC 06.10.2019 24 15.5N 156.4E 999 35
1200UTC 06.10.2019 36 15.6N 153.7E 990 49
0000UTC 07.10.2019 48 16.3N 150.2E 980 59
1200UTC 07.10.2019 60 17.0N 147.2E 965 73
0000UTC 08.10.2019 72 18.3N 144.2E 947 85
1200UTC 08.10.2019 84 19.5N 141.8E 929 91
0000UTC 09.10.2019 96 20.8N 140.4E 907 102
1200UTC 09.10.2019 108 22.2N 140.0E 895 109
0000UTC 10.10.2019 120 23.4N 139.4E 895 106
1200UTC 10.10.2019 132 24.2N 138.6E 893 106
0000UTC 11.10.2019 144 25.3N 137.5E 895 103

That model run looks like Yutu Part Two. Nothing going on in the Atlantic ... I'll be watching this.

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC 1st warning. A typhoon as it passes through the Marianas and 130kts STY at the end of the forecast period.

WDPN33 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 946
NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A FAST DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS, MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE ALSO PROMINENT NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND ON A FAINT BUT DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURE IN THE
050553Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS
IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD AND CONSISTENT WITH THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT (05-10KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A ROBUST EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
B. STEERED BY THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TD 20W WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 95KTS BY TAU 72.
B. AFTER TAU 72, TD 20W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
MONGOLIA. THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, IN
ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WILL
INITIATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION POTENTIALLY REACHING SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY OF 130KTS BY TAU 120. THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERICAL MODELS
IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH A MINIMAL
SPREAD TO 200NM BY END OF FORECAST. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE FORMATIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM TRACK,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
909 PM CHST SAT OCT 5 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W TO APPROACH THE MARIANAS...

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS CENTERED ABOUT 970 MILES EAST OF
SAIPAN AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE MARIANAS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR ANATAHAN MONDAY NIGHT.

PMZ152>154-052100-
/O.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.4020.191005T1109Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
909 PM CHST SAT OCT 5 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN...AND
SAIPAN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY
EVENING.

* WAVES/SEAS...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY. COMBINED SEAS
COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 15 FEET MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SAIPAN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

Yikes!

[euro6208]

Looks like the most populated islands of the Marianas (Saipan, Tinian, Rota, Guam) will be spared the most destructive winds from this. The other islands are mostly uninhabited.

[euro6208]

Peak

[Highteeld]

[euro6208]

GFS continues to be the southern outlier as it takes it near or over Saipan although it is given credit.

GFS has led the way the past couple of days with a fairly steady
track showing the developing circulation moving through the
Marianas near Anatahan. Other models, initially farther north and
weaker, have come into better agreement in showing a stronger
system passing through the Marianas in much the same area. While
strongest winds are currently expected in the CNMI and northern
islands, small shifts in the track are not out of the realm of
possibility. Model intensities range from a tropical storm to a
typhoon passing through the islands Monday night and into Tuesday
morning.

[Highteeld]

20W TWENTY 191005 1200 15.1N 159.2E WPAC 30 1003