ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 12, 2019 3:37 pm

Is now a Tropical Storm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

...MELISSA MAKES A TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 65.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 65.6 West. Melissa is
moving toward the east-northeast at near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Monday. On the forecast track, Melissa will
continue to move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England
coasts.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so, and Melissa
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast
through the rest of the weekend around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

Convection has continued to persist near the center of Melissa
throughout the day, and only in the past few hours have the affects
of increasing westerly shear begun to erode the convection from the
western side of the cyclone. A pair of scatterometer passes late
this morning showed that the wind field associated with the storm
had contracted, with the strongest winds occurring within 50 n mi of
the center. They also revealed that the radius of maximum winds had
decreased to 20 n mi. Based on these data along with a tropical
structure apparent in satellite and microwave data, it is likely
that Melissa completed a transition to a tropical cyclone at some
point this morning. A recent Dvorak classification from TAFB, an
objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT, and an earlier scatterometer
pass all support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

The westerly shear beginning to affect Melissa is expected to
gradually increase over the next few days. Through tonight, the
cyclone will move over waters of 23-24 C. In addition, the upper
trough over the storm that has aided in maintaining its convection
will weaken and lift northeast of the cyclone over the next day or
so. The combination of these factors should cause Melissa to weaken,
and the cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by
Sunday. The global model intensity forecasts appear to be
capturing the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to the
northeast of Melissa and not directly associated with the cyclone
itself. Thus, the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one,
and continues to be lower than the global model guidance.

Melissa is moving east-northeastward, or 070/10 kt. The increasing
westerly flow will cause the cyclone to gradually accelerate through
Monday. This motion will continue, with a slight turn to the east in
a few days, just before the cyclone is absorbed by a frontal zone.
The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and in the
middle of the various consensus aids.

Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by
non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices.

Key Messages:

1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the
east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected
along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts
around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend. For more
information, see products issued by local National Weather Service
forecast offices at weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 38.4N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 39.8N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z 40.7N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z 41.6N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1800Z 42.4N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#42 Postby Do_For_Love » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:18 pm

Looks like Melissa is probably on her way out with that shear hurting her convection. Gotta say though, this storm over performed low expectations. I wonder if we will see more storms develop in the later season in the Mid Atlantic region in the future. Something I will have to keep an eye on, lol.
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#43 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:15 pm

I'm thinking Melissa might have preferred being subtropical. :wink:
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#44 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:44 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#45 Postby plasticup » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:47 pm

38.4N


Silly storm, that's no place to make a tropical transition!
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:45 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

...MELISSA MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 64.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 64.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward
speed through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so, and Melissa
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday or
Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast
through the rest of the weekend around times of high tide.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that westerly shear is increasing over
Melissa, and the low-level center is now partly exposed at the
western edge of the central convective mass. However, this has not
yet resulted in a significant decrease in the various subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates. The initial intensity
thus remains 45 kt. There have been significant changes to the
initial 12-ft seas radii for this advisory based on input from the
Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is now 080/12. Melissa should be steered
generally eastward to east-northeastward in the southern portion of
the mid-latitude westerlies until the system is absorbed by a
frontal zone after 72 h. There is little change to either the
forecast guidance or the forecast track since the previous advisory,
and the new forecast is in good agreement with the consensus
models.

Westerly shear should continue to increase over Melissa during the
next three days. In addition, after passing over a patch or eddy
of warm water associated with the Gulf Stream on Sunday, the storm
should encounter much colder water. This combination should cause
Melissa to weaken, and it is expected to become a remnant low after
24 h. While the forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous
forecast, the new intensity forecast is tweaked slightly to keep
Melissa a tropical storm through 24 h based on the expected passage
over the warm water eddy.

Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by
non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices.

Key Messages:

1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the
U.S. east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still
expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern
coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend.
For more information, see products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices at weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 38.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 39.2N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 40.2N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 41.1N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z 42.0N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z 42.2N 35.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#47 Postby Steve820 » Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:25 am

This is such a strange, small system. Shear is expected to rip the poor thing apart in the next couple days. Continues the sexist female curse - no female names have surpassed the 65 mph/995 mbar peak of both Gabrielle and Melissa while males have been winning it this year (except for maybe Fernand)
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Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.

I wish for you to :Bcool:

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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#48 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:03 am

Steve820 wrote:This is such a strange, small system. Shear is expected to rip the poor thing apart in the next couple days. Continues the sexist female curse - no female names have surpassed the 65 mph/995 mbar peak of both Gabrielle and Melissa while males have been winning it this year (except for maybe Fernand)


Interestingly they've all been of either non-tropical origin, or peaked in the subtropics--Karen was the only female name to both form and strengthen in the MDR.
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#49 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:18 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 58.8W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

After an earlier flare-up of convection, thunderstorm activity has
decreased significantly in both coverage and intensity during the
past 4 hours. Convection is now limited to a small area in the
northeastern quadrant, and the inner-core region is becoming
dominated by stable cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on 1400Z ASCAT wind data
showing 35-36 kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle and
subsequent erosion of the convective pattern.

Melissa continues to gradually accelerate east-northeastward and the
initial motion estimate is now 075/16 kt. An additional increase in
forward speed, in conjunction with a turn toward the east, is
expected by tonight and then continue through the remainder of the
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and lies near an average of the tightly
packed consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

The unfavorable combination of westerly vertical wind shear of more
than 30 kt and SSTs less than 24 deg C is expected to continue the
current weakening trend, with Melissa becoming a remnant low by
Monday morning. The cyclone is forecast to merge or interact with
a larger extratropical low by Wednesday and dissipate. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 39.9N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 40.5N 55.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/1800Z 41.4N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/0600Z 41.9N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z 41.7N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#51 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 56.7W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

Deep convection associated with Melissa has continued to decrease
in coverage this evening, and the system has become an exposed
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been
held at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak
current intensity (CI) number and recent ASCAT data that
revealed some 30-kt winds well southeast of the center. Strong
westerly vertical wind shear and cool SSTs along the path of
storm is expected to cause weakening, and Melissa should degenerate
into a remnant low later tonight or early Monday. The global
models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed
by a frontal boundary in 2 to 3 days.

Melissa is moving east-northeastward or 075/16 kt. There has been
no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Melissa should
accelerate east-northeastward to eastward during the next day or
two as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow.
The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 40.2N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 40.8N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0000Z 41.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 41.7N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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