ATL: FIFTEEN - Remnants - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 94, 2019101312, , BEST, 0, 119N, 156W, 20, 1008, LO,

Thread at Talkling Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120655

[Abdullah]

When do we get a separate model thread? When it becomes a named storm? a depression?

[cycloneye]

When do we get a separate model thread? When it becomes a named storm? a depression?

Is now up.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120665&p=2787209#p2787209

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over
portions of western Africa. The wave is expected to move
west-northwestward over the next day or so and emerge off the
coast of Africa later this afternoon. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some additional development to occur
during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Strong upper-level winds should prevent additional
development by midweek. Interests in and around the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Is a big blob.

[cycloneye]

A vigorous tropical wave, accompanied by a well-defined low pressure
system, has emerged over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean
just west of the coast of Guinea-Bissau. Showers and thunderstorms
are beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a
tropical depression during the next few days while the disturbance
moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any
significant development by midweek. Interests in and around the
Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT data indicates that it probably exited the coast just before 12Z.

[CyclonicFury]

Is it really mid-October? This is much more typical of early-mid September.

[CrazyC83]

This would be the farthest east a storm had developed in the deep tropics in October? It's definitely not something you normally see in the late season. It looks to already be a TD looking at the satellite and wind data though?

[1900hurricane]

This would be the farthest east a storm had developed in the deep tropics in October? It's definitely not something you normally see in the late season. It looks to already be a TD looking at the satellite and wind data though?

I ran a search and came up with only two other systems: Ginger '67 and 17L from 1972.

[cycloneye]

A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure,
is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of
the west coast of Africa. Although showers and thunderstorms
associated with the system decreased somewhat earlier this evening,
satellite imagery indicates that they are beginning to increase once
again. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward
to northwestward over or just east of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by
midweek. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Interests in and around the Cabo
Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland,
Canada.

A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa with
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward near
or northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds
should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is
forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

The structure of 94L looks good, but it’s gonna need more convective organization to be upgraded.

[galaxy401]

Almost a TD.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Newfoundland, Canada.

A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean less than 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is moving slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
Satellite imagery and surface wind data indicate that low has become
better defined since yesterday, and shower and thunderstorm activity
is showing increasing signs of organization. If this recent
development trend continues, then a tropical depression or a
tropical storm storm is likely to form later tonight or early
Tuesday while the low moves generally northwestward toward the Cabo
Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further
development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
tonight through Wednesday morning, and interests there should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm surprised the eastern Cabo Verde Islands haven't issued tropical storm watches/warnings yet. This is an unprecedented event for those islands for this late in the season.

[northjaxpro]

This will be Nestor before I go to bed later tonight literally, if it isn't already. I truly feel it is a TS now!

It is perplexing to phathom we are seeing this type of CV storm in mid-October. Just incredble we are seeing this. What a season 2019 has been uh?

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

AL, 15, 2019101418, , BEST, 0, 130N, 199W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, D, 0, , 0, 0,

TD 15 is here.