WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

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aspen
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#61 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:47 am

Looking close to Cat 2 intensity: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... rnerds.png

I can’t believe Neoguri is trying to rapidly intensify in only a marginally favorable environment. I guess it wants to put on a show as we wait for Bualoi to become a typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#62 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:39 am

The eye continues to clear (>-40 C) within a healthy-looking -75 C CDO. Neoguri could be approaching or at Cat 2 intensity and, if the eye clears enough, may become a Cat 3 before shear finally takes its toll.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#63 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:06 pm

Incredible storm. High end Cat 2.

21W NEOGURI 191019 1800 22.5N 127.5E WPAC 95 964
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#64 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:07 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 191857

A. TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI)

B. 19/1750Z

C. 22.52N

D. 127.53E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT OF
5.5. MET YIELDS 4.5, PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#65 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:08 pm

That eye though.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#66 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:49 pm

Best track up to 95 kt/964 mbar....I am in shock that Neoguri has been able to get this strong while on the verge of being ripped apart. This seems to be starting, based on the cooling of the eye and the elongation of its convective structure.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#67 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:33 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 014//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH AN 8NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON AVERAGING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
5.0 FROM RJTD AND 5.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE (25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. SST
VALUES OF 27-28C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36, TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU
72. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE AT THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS TO 90 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 30-35 KNOTS AND WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 36 TO
45-50 KNOTS, WHICH WILL WEAKEN TY 21W. AFTER TAU 36, TY 21W WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS (45-70 KNOTS) AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. BY TAU
72, TY 21W WILL BE REDUCES TO 40KTS. DUE TO THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT, LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND EXTRA-TROPICAL
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION
OF THE CENTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL HONSHU. THE MODEL AIDS
HAVE STARTED TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS
PUTTING THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM CLOSER TO HONSHU. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A STRONG JET TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER JAPAN
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HONSHU, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A STRONG
BAROCLINIC, COLD-CORE LOW AFTER TAU 48.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 21W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT TRACKS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THIS 40-KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 96, ALBEIT WITH
A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD, AS IT TRACKS EAST OF HONSHU. DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#68 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:33 pm

Finally weakening.


Image
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#69 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:51 pm

All the fun stuff happens when I'm unavailable. : P
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#70 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:01 pm

That was so weird.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#71 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:10 pm

Yesterday CIMSS upper level wind
Image

The strong poleward outflow cancelled out the marginal environment hounding it.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#72 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:04 pm

Couldnt wrap my head around the fact that this one was 5knots away to being a Cat3, and the forecasts 2 days ago showed that it would only be a fizzling tropical depression.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#73 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:01 pm

Seems to be weakening as fast as it strengthened.
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#74 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:47 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Typhoon

#75 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:52 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 017//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 21W IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA, THEREFORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) HAS COMMENCED. THE
20/12Z NAZE SOUNDING (47909) INDICATES A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY JET
WITH 65 KNOTS AT 300-200MB, WHICH IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG (40-50
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AS
REVEALED IN RADAR IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A WEAK EYE
DESPITE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE RADAR IMAGERY AND CORRESPONDING RJTD RADAR FIXES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A 20/0949Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 66 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH A 20/0848Z SMAP ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS (1-MINUTE AVERAGE). AS
REVEALED IN ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY, TY 21W CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND HAS REMAINED WELL TO THE EAST OF KADENA AB, WHICH
IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF ONLY 5-15 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY (> 65 KNOTS) BY TAU 36 AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE JET AND RAPIDLY COMPLETES ETT.
CONSEQUENTLY, RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONLY THROUGH TAU 36 THEN DIVERGES WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK AS
THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE CENTER BROADENS.
AFTER THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL, COLD-CORE LOW,
THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST IS EXTENDED TO 72 HOURS AS A COURTESY TO
ASSETS IN JAPAN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED ERRATIC WITH
SEVERAL MODELS HAVING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TRACKING THE SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF HONSHU. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF
MODEL FIELDS, WHICH MAINTAIN A DISTINCT BUT BROAD CENTER THROUGH TAU
72. NAVGEM AND GFS BOTH LOSE THE CENTER RESULTING IN A SHARP
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK CHANGE AFTER TAU 36. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AFTER TAU 36.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:15 am

The GFS init wind speed is probably wrong but :double:
Image
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:47 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 210900

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 1920 NEOGURI (1920)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 210900UTC 32N 135E

MOVE NNE 15KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 050KT

30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST =
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

#78 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:22 pm

I'm surprised JTWC has not yet issued their final warning on this system despite already being extratropical.

Image
Image
WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 023//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 180NM TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
EXPOSED, RAGGED LLC IN MSI IMAGERY. A 212203Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASINGLY
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO DEFORM UNDER A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (60 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COAST OF JAPAN REPORT 30-40 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 70 NM FROM THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A 212147Z SATCON OF 43 KTS AND THE
OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS EXTRATROPICAL BASED ON A
212100Z AMSU CORE TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTION SHOWING A LOW LEVEL WARM
FRONTAL ANOMALY AND A COLD CORE ALOFT, AS WELL AS THE ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD, DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE DRY SLOT IN THE CIMSS
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
UNFAVORABLE AT 24-26 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND CONVECTION SHEARED
POLEWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, ALL CHARACTERISTIC OF
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEMS. TS 21W IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE STRONG
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF TOKYO AND THEN EAST OF HONSHU MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE
WINDS. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE EXACT POSITION IN
THE NEAR TERM, AS THE SYSTEM DEFORMS UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
JET. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED AHEAD OF THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE GALWEM SOLUTION AND CARRYING FORWARD THE
CURRENT OBSERVED TRACK SPEED, AS CONSENSUS IS BEING DRAGGED SLOWER
BY GFS, WHICH PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

#79 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:17 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 080 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 140.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 36.1N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 38.6N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 34.1N 141.4E. 22OCT19. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W
(NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
230 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE JET,
PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY STRONG (70 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BASED ON A 212100Z AMSU CORE TEMPERATURE CROSS
SECTION SHOWING A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ANOMALY AND A COLD CORE
ALOFT, AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, AND COOL (24-25 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS EXTRATROPICAL. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 220103Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS SHOWING A REGION OF 45 KTS TO THE NORTH OF A BROAD, POORLY
DEFINED LLC. TS 21W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TS 21W WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BUT THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220600Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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