ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:36 pm

Location: 20.0°N 95.1°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


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Post away for Bay of Campeche area.

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120652
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:37 pm

Invest 96L finally designated!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:46 pm

Tracking that developing circ..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:49 pm

Models look consistent on northern gulf coast
We are watching closely
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:52 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Models look consistent on northern gulf coast
We are watching closely


Looking forward to some well needed rain ( as long as winds aren't strong enough to disrupt power or down trees).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:01 pm

Already looks to be trying to develop a circulation based on a recent ASCAT pass. BoC working its magic it seems. Could see a TD as soon as tonight if it continues this pace.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:07 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:12 pm

Image

Gradually organizing rather nicely currently in the BOC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:13 pm

good rains for someone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:19 pm

Is definitely organizing quicker than I thought, pressure are falling in this area. Interaction with the shortwave trough and with the stalled frontal boundary along the gulf coast will give it a subtropical to extra tropical look to it as it nears the gulf coast on Saturday, there could definitely be some severe wx with it over the panhandle & peninsula.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:20 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:36 pm

1km visible definitely showing a circ quickly developing on the very south side of all the convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:43 pm

Lightning developing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:44 pm

Moving NW at this time
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:45 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Lightning developing



Yeah it sure is popping down there. That is indicative of a strengthening cyclone in most instances.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:50 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Moving NW at this time


The circ down at 20n looks due north the last few hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:57 pm

I really thought this would not develop but it really is
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby SoupBone » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:00 pm

Ivanhater wrote:I really thought this would not develop but it really is



I love every state on the Gulf Coast, but I sure am happy to be in Texas during this part of the season. It's crazy that this thing will traverse the entire GoM as it heads toward Florida. I really hope it's only rainfall for you.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:01 pm

I'm thinking a mid-grade heavily sheared tropical storm is likely, similar to the sloppy storms we often see in June. I don't think it's likely this gets anywhere near Michael in strength. But a 50-60 kt storm would not be too surprising.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:02 pm

Wow, just had a quick look at CAPE in the GOM.
6500!
Highest I have ever seen it.
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