ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Overall, looks like it's slowly developing. Still, any broad circulation appears to me to be stretched NNW to SSE. Yeah Aric, I was thinking that it was already drifting generally northward too. No doubt that conditions in general way down in the SW BOC seem pretty favorable but that begins to change as the system gains latitude. You can see that dry air over the NW Gulf punch southward, not to mention the increased Westerlies with the increase in latitude. My guess is that it'll start out looking fully tropical and then begin to get stretched out before reorganizing a day or two later much closer to the N. Gulf coastline

[psyclone]

I'm thinking a mid-grade heavily sheared tropical storm is likely, similar to the sloppy storms we often see in June. I don't think it's likely this gets anywhere near Michael in strength. But a 50-60 kt storm would not be too surprising.

I agree. Hurricane seasons often begin and end with the same type of storm in the same region (NE GOM). sheared, right loaded, with a semi tropical look. Would not be a shock if the system had a squall line configuration tailing to the south with some svr wx risk. With very dry antecedent conditions in the likely path, for most the system will likely be a net benefit. What a change from a year ago when the southeast US was swamp of a wet mess..

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1184568568131870726

[DestinHurricane]

This will be similar to subtropical storm Alberto last year

[TheStormExpert]

This will be similar to subtropical storm Alberto last year

Likely nothing worth getting too excited about. Fortunately we won't be seeing another monster like Michael from last October this year!

[chaser1]

Overall shape right now has gotten a bit weird. I don't think there's any sensible MLC or LLC quite yet. Seems that it's best near-term shot at reasonable development would be co-located with that new small area of bursting farthest to the south. Otherwise, this is still looking quite linear at the moment.

[abajan]

Here's Mark Sudduth's take on 96L.

[Dean4Storms]

Is Recon still heading down there today?

[cycloneye]

Is Recon still heading down there today?

Not today.They will go on Thursday afternoon.

[tropicwatch]

This will be similar to subtropical storm Alberto last year

Likely nothing worth getting too excited about. Fortunately we won't be seeing another monster like Michael from last October this year!

Unfortunately if we get any sustained tropical storm force winds in the Panhandle. A lot of people will get more water damage due to them still having tarps on there roofs.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/stat ... 0367334400

[Aric Dunn]

https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/status/1184589670367334400

For once you dont really need ascat ..

But yeah likely closed

Which would make it a td.

[Aric Dunn]

At this rate.. by the time recon gets there tomorrow it will already be a ts

[wxman57]

FYI, I have it moving at a forward speed of around 25-28 mph at landfall near Pensacola on Saturday. It won't be hanging around like Harvey or Imelda to produce really heavy rain. Maybe 1-3 inches right of the track with some spots possibly seeing 4-6 inches.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks good. Probably a depression based on this satellite loop and the ascat above.

[psyclone]

Our formative system is looking rather healthy. I'd imagine those odds at 8 pm will be going up

[Nimbus]

See what the models think about shear, could have a pretty strong surge coming east like that if it were a very deep system.

[northjaxpro]

Check out that lightning showing near the Low Level Circulation. This system is pulling together rather nicely early this evening. Lightning in.most instances like this signals a well developed and even an intensifying cyclone. I have no doubt this is a solid TD right now and possibly could be even a TS. Once again, I wish Recon was in there right now, just when the system is really coming together.

[Steve]

I haven’t been paying attention other than seeing models for the last few weeks wanting to eventually bring a system up NNE in the Gulf. So you figured it would happen. It’s more now the nature of what it is. Almost zero investigation tells me to look out for a decent looking, mid-grade October, Gulf system moving pretty fast NNE-NE. Some of the models are fairly tight with the circulation, but others depict a broader center up toward the Coast. We look to get fringe elements here, so some breezes and maybe some fast moving clouds. Any rain looks concentrated east, which is what you’d expect with this setup. I’m not sure what the ceiling is, maybe 60-65 offshore and 40ish inland? Loop current should give it a boost for a bit. Landfall should be somewhere between Escambia and Bay Counties, but it might get close enough to the AL coast for some strong conditions there. Trajectory should be based on how fast the front is coming down and at what angle. Looks like more of a downed tree, power outage type storm with some tidal issues farther east. Hopefully it just blows through. What isn’t clear to me is if this is it for the Western Basin. I kind of think not in that a couple of cold highs will build down after Nestor pulls up.

[gatorcane]

If that blowup in the Southern BoC is indeed where the center is, looks like it is already a good bit east of the Euro and GFS forecasts. In this case stronger means more east which may put peninsula Florida in play.