ATL: NESTOR - Models
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ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone
Whoa, big slow down on 12Z GFS with 16 interacting with the PV Streamer.
Any delay on 16 moving is going to setup for a much stronger TC.
This may come in heavy at landfall.
If I was around the Big Bend area I would err on the side of caution.
Any delay on 16 moving is going to setup for a much stronger TC.
This may come in heavy at landfall.
If I was around the Big Bend area I would err on the side of caution.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
12Z GFS run shows future Nestor's COC making landfall at Apalachicola on 12Z Saturday morning at 998 mb, a bit of a shift east from the 06Z run.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone
GCANE wrote:Whoa, big slow down on 12Z GFS with 16 interacting with the PV Streamer.
Any delay on 16 moving is going to setup for a much stronger TC.
This may come in heavy at landfall.
If I was around the Big Bend area I would err on the side of caution.
https://i.imgur.com/UIVV1og.png
Hmm.. This is concerning. We discussed this GCANE very earlier this morning about the PV Streamrr interaction. It will be extremely interesting seeing how the later model runs respond to this.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
northjaxpro wrote:12Z GFS run shows future Nestor's COC making landfall at Apalachicola on 12Z Saturday morning at 998 mb, a bit of a shift east from the 06Z run.
I get the sense that N. Gulf Low might impact the storm to slide just a tad further east as it rotates under and around the broader 500 mb circulation. This is assuming that the storm (Nestor?) itself has not already fully phased in with and lost identity with the broader mid level system already. If remaining a separate identity longer, then I'd imagine we could see a bit further east motion followed by a fairly sharp North turn just prior to landfall a bit east of Apalachicola and closer to the Alligator Point/St. Marks area, but that's only if this were to remain a largely tropical entity. The biggest question to me is how long will this tropical system be able to remain independent and separate prior to it's being absorbed? If nothing else, this certainly seems like it'll wind up growing into one large weather system. Phasing in with the evolving N. Gulf low suggests a stronger event for the N. Gulf Coast. Remaining separate and not fully phasing in right up until landfall would suggest to me a more sheared and shallow tropical system but with conditions spreading further east.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
12z euro launches this nne in 24hours.
Seems a bit suspect. Will have to wait and see how the obviously well defined and expanding circ around 20n evolves.
Looks to be moving ene currently..
Seems a bit suspect. Will have to wait and see how the obviously well defined and expanding circ around 20n evolves.
Looks to be moving ene currently..
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
Looks like ukmet shifted little more east.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
tolakram wrote:https://i.imgur.com/v24zAPY.png
I am hearing by local Meteorologists that the ECM in this run @ 60mph.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
18Z GFS seems to initialize too far N compared to the 5pm NHC position, and what recon is finding
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
HWRF and HMON both have a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
Off topic but is the "max wind" in the upper right corner of tropical tidbits hurricane models correct? The winds it shows seems rather high for that mslp on most model.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
Why wouldn't that Max wind, right before landfall (here in) Big Bend, not be accurate?
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
NAM is rolling in. It shows tightening of the center farther north. Looks about like my post last night said and maybe it makes a run for 60 or so before landfall
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 01800&fh=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 01800&fh=0
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
00z GFS from 6 to 12 hrs jumps the center 200 miles to the NE.. lol
I think its time to go to sleep lol.
I think its time to go to sleep lol.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
New 06z GFS run has a landfall at 24/30 hours and is the strongest operational run yet with a minimum pressure of 990 mbar.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
06z HWRF shifted a little east, also a little stronger offshore before becoming more subtropical as it makes landfall. It shows one heck of a squall line from the Tampa Bay area on north towards the Nature coast to come onshore with possible tornadic cells. I will not be surprise if that squall line produces TS force winds across the Tampa Bay area with the downdrafts from it.
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Models
Appears to be pretty good agreement with the models.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots
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