NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

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Nancy Smar
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NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:28 am

97A INVEST 191017 0600 10.0N 70.0E IO 15 0
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:19 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: NIO: invest 97A

#2 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:14 am

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Re: NIO: invest 97A

#3 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:18 am

The GFS and ECMWF models show this disturbance meandering over the eastern/central Arabian Sea during the next several days but only show development starting in 7-10 days time. With the favorable MJO forecast to move through the Indian Ocean this second-half of October, 97A could indeed have a good a chance of development.

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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#4 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:58 pm

Image
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZOCT2019//
RMKS/

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 68.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 812 NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION WITH NO DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 181546Z
METOPA-A 89GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD, DIFFLUENT, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS,
COUPLED WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) DEPICT A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#5 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:36 am

Broad system/circulation.

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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#6 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:51 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN
SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 20.10.2019 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF
20.10.2019.


ARABIAN SEA:
YESTERDAY’S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA PERSISTS.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA & NEIGHBOURHOOD AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF KONKAN-KARNATAKA
COAST & SOUTH ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN MALDIVES.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS | 24-48 HOURS | 48-72 HOURS | 72-96 HOURS | 96-120 HOURS
NIL | NIL | NIL | LOW | HIGH

REMARKS: NIL
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#7 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:10 am

EURO bullish on the last couple of runs.

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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#8 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:23 am

97A INVEST 191021 1200 12.6N 63.6E IO 25 1004

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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#9 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:44 am

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZOCT2019//
RMKS/

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 63.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 537
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 221604Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT REVEALS DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT WITH A FORMATIVE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD IN
STRUCTURE AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT VARYING TIMELINES OF DEVELOPMENT.
NAVGEM LEADS DEVELOPMENT, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 36 WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SLOWER DEVELOPEMENT TIMELINES OF 72
HOURS AND 120 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM
.

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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#10 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Oct 23, 2019 4:23 am

The rate of development has been slow thus far, as anticipated, but this could finally become a tropical storm just off the Indian coast on the next 2-3 days.
Perhaps we'll see a quicker rate of strengthening once the system turns back towards the W, WNW, or NW.

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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#11 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:45 pm

The GFS, Euro, NAVGEM, ICON, and HWRF are all in agreement with 97A forming within the next few days and intensifying as it moves away from India, peaking at Category 3 or 4 intensity. They do, however, disagree in the future track. While the GFS and Euro has it track due west into the Arabian Peninsula, the ICON keeps it closer to the coast; the NAVGEM and HWRF are between those two extremes.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#12 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:00 pm

If 97A develops like most guidance is indicating, then the 2019 NIO season will likely top 2007 for most recorded ACE in a single season. As of right now, the basin has the fourth most since 1972.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#13 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:43 am

Image
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WTIO21 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97A)//
RMKS/

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 70.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. A 231659 ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS THIS TIGHTENING LLCC
WITH A LARGE BAND OF 25 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC WITH POCKETS OF 30
KT WINDS 140 NM FROM THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNDER FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10 KTS). HOWEVER, JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONG VWS REACHING 25-30 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 35
KTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE INITIALLY SLOWLY TRACKS THE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST, HOWEVER ALL MODELS THEN REVERSE THE TRACK BETWEEN
TAUS 24 AND 72 TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH
.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#14 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:46 am

This could be a tropical storm now based on the latest ASCAT pass just before 06Z.

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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:59 pm

I second the suggestion that the appearance and data support it as a tropical storm. Probably 40 knots based on ascat.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#16 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:23 pm

Upgraded to a 35 kt tropical storm on Tropical Tidbits.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#17 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 24, 2019 4:13 pm

97A is forecast to rapidly intensify to a peak of 100 kt. The fact that such a high peak is forecast at just the first advisory makes it seem like a vigorous phase of rapid intensification is possible, and that 97A could become even stronger.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#18 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:54 pm

Could be a Gonu challenger
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#19 Postby Tailspin » Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:38 pm

Maybe just a matter of time before dry dusty air coming of the sub continent starts getting
injested
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#20 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:54 pm

Tailspin wrote:Maybe just a matter of time before dry dusty air coming of the sub continent starts getting
injested
https://i.imgur.com/NrIbgpt.gif
https://imgur.com/NrIbgpt


97A seems to be outside of the flow of dry air for now, and deepening on how quickly it can form a robust inner core, it could be somewhat resistant to it by the time the system moves away from India. It may not even reach the dry air for at least another two days, giving it plenty of time to RI.
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