NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

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Tailspin

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#41 Postby Tailspin » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:40 pm

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.0

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2019 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 16:42:45 N Lon : 70:46:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.0mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.7

Center Temp : -77.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 98nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MSG1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.7 degrees




Image
lots of low cloud still inside the centre, Maybe a precurser too a future eyewall.
Last edited by Tailspin on Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#42 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:49 pm

37 GHz color imagery on SSMIS leaves something to be desired. If you look at this AMSR2 pass from 3 hours previous and compare closely, most of the same features line up with the F-18 pass you have above. Looks pretty good to me. Using 89 GHz-D imagery, it looks like the dry air is still staying outside the circulation for now.

Image

Image
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#43 Postby Tailspin » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:52 pm

Thankyou.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#44 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 26, 2019 1:30 am

Image

Looking good
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#45 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 26, 2019 3:22 am

04A KYARR 191026 0600 16.7N 69.9E IO 80 976

Image

Forecast to become an "extremely severe cyclonic storm" by IMD within the next 24hrs.
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Kyarr’ (Pronounced as Kyarr) over eastcentral Arabian Sea
The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘KYARR’ over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved westnorthwestwards with a speed of 12 Kmph during the past 06 hrs, and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of
26th October, 2019 near latitude 16.6°N and longitude 70.5°E over eastcentral Arabian Sea, about
300 km west-southwest of Ratnagiri (Maharashtra), 370 km south-southwest of Mumbai
(Maharashtra) and 1740 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is very likely to move westnorthwestwards towards Oman coast during next 5 days. It is very likely to intensify further into an
extremely severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours.

Image
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#46 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:38 am

Nearly cat 3

04A KYARR 191026 1200 16.7N 69.4E IO 95 961


Image
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#47 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 8:21 am

Highteeld wrote:Nearly cat 3

04A KYARR 191026 1200 16.7N 69.4E IO 95 961


https://i.imgur.com/34mxYQC.png


At this rate, Kyarr will be a Category 4 by later today. I could see it getting to the equivalent of a Super Typhoon (130 kt or higher) before dry air or an EWRC takes its toll.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#48 Postby salmon123 » Sat Oct 26, 2019 9:58 am

whatever the predicted route by global models .. what possibility as it makes a landfall near India Pakistan border ?
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#49 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:31 am

Just great, Kyarr is out of the range of 30 minute updated satellite imagery on ssd.noaa.gov, and will now be updated at six-hour intervals. Sometimes I have tracking storms in the Indian Ocean because there’s such limited and low-res imagery in that basin.

At least we have Dvorak imagery updated every half an hour here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04A.html
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#50 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:52 am

aspen wrote:Just great, Kyarr is out of the range of 30 minute updated satellite imagery on ssd.noaa.gov, and will now be updated at six-hour intervals. Sometimes I have tracking storms in the Indian Ocean because there’s such limited and low-res imagery in that basin.

At least we have Dvorak imagery updated every half an hour here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04A.html



Meteosat and Himawari-8 are not the only option in the Indian Ocean. There's INSAT (by India) and this satellite
1400z
Image
1430z
Image whose output looks pretty hi-resolution to me.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#51 Postby TorSkk » Sat Oct 26, 2019 11:13 am

aspen wrote:Just great, Kyarr is out of the range of 30 minute updated satellite imagery on ssd.noaa.gov, and will now be updated at six-hour intervals. Sometimes I have tracking storms in the Indian Ocean because there’s such limited and low-res imagery in that basin.

At least we have Dvorak imagery updated every half an hour here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04A.html



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=IO042019
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#52 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 11:36 am

mrbagyo wrote:
aspen wrote:Just great, Kyarr is out of the range of 30 minute updated satellite imagery on ssd.noaa.gov, and will now be updated at six-hour intervals. Sometimes I have tracking storms in the Indian Ocean because there’s such limited and low-res imagery in that basin.

At least we have Dvorak imagery updated every half an hour here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04A.html



Meteosat and Himawari-8 are not the only option in the Indian Ocean. There's INSAT (by India) and this satellite
1400z
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/LRM_EXPORT_3621688807202_20191026_231314727.jpg
1430z
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/LRM_EXPORT_4923402641340_20191026_233456565.jpg whose output looks pretty hi-resolution to me.


TorSkk wrote:
aspen wrote:Just great, Kyarr is out of the range of 30 minute updated satellite imagery on ssd.noaa.gov, and will now be updated at six-hour intervals. Sometimes I have tracking storms in the Indian Ocean because there’s such limited and low-res imagery in that basin.

At least we have Dvorak imagery updated every half an hour here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04A.html



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=IO042019


I never knew about either of those before. I mainly focus on the Pacific and Atlantic basins.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#53 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 26, 2019 11:39 am

Image
Image
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#54 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:41 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A 12:00UTC 26October2019
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from JTWC) :
Latitude : 16:43:31 N
Longitude : 69:14:08 E
Intensity (MSLP) : 963.2 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 890.8 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 72.4 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 4.6 m/s ( 9.0 kts)
Direction : 138.6 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF VF F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.5 -6.0 - -3.0 -9.0 - -4.5 -12.0 - -6.0
N -1.5 - +1.5 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.5 - +4.5 -6.0 - +6.0
U +1.5 - +3.0 +3.0 - +6.0 +4.5 - +9.0 +6.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#55 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:42 pm

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#56 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 1:21 pm

All Dvorak/ADT estimates are at T#6.0 (115 kt), so Kyarr is likely to be upgraded to 110-115 kt for the next advisory.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#57 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 2:18 pm

Best track up to 115 kt/944 mbar. That’s a +20 kt wind speed increase in just six hours.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#58 Postby Tailspin » Sat Oct 26, 2019 5:02 pm

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#59 Postby TorSkk » Sat Oct 26, 2019 5:05 pm

Now an extremely severe cyclonic storm per IMD
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#60 Postby Tailspin » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:14 pm

Imagehttps://imgur.com/cmNncJ0
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