NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#81 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:53 am

IMD has upgraded Kyarr into a super cyclonic storm — the first in the Arabian Sea since Gonu(2007). Also, it is only the second super cyclonic storm on record in the Arabian Sea.
Sub: Super Cyclonic Storm ‘Kyarr’ (Pronounced as Kyarr) over Eastcentral Arabian Sea
The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘KYARR’ over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved westnorthwestwards with a speed of 13 Kmph during past 06 hrs, intensified into a Super Cyclonic Storm and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 27th October, 2019 near latitude 17.1°N and
longitude 67.8°E over Eastcentral Arabian Sea, about 580 km west-southwest of Mumbai
(Maharashtra), 1450 km east of Salalah (Oman) and 1010 km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman). It is
very likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 5 days. It is very likely to
intensify further till early hours of 28th and weaken gradually thereafter.

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#82 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:03 am

JTWC 130kts for 06Z.
04A KYARR 191027 0600 17.3N 67.4E IO 130 932
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#83 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:10 am

Good call by IMD.
JTWC on the other hands is ultraconservative again - as usual.

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#84 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:22 am

IMD appears to be doing really well with recent storms/cyclones.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#85 Postby TorSkk » Sun Oct 27, 2019 4:05 am

Wow second cat 5 of the season
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#86 Postby WAcyclone » Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:09 am

Some pictures of Kyarr taken today by the Sentinel-3 satellite (300-metre-resolution)

Image

Image

Close-up of the eye:

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#87 Postby Highteeld » Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:44 am

What's the conversion from 3 minute sustained winds to 1 minute sustained winds?
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#88 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:52 am

Kyarr’s eye temperature is around +19 C, and the eye is extremely symmetrical, but the CDO isn’t cool enough for the JTWC to upgrade it to a Cat 5; Dvorak estimates are around 130-135 kt.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#89 Postby Highteeld » Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:57 am

Pressure down to 915 mb, 130 knot 3-minute sustained winds

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE PERSITANCE OF EYE PATTERN WITH PRESENT EYE TEMPERATURE +12.7
DEG.C AND EYE DIAMETER IS ABOUT 40 KM. AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0900 UTC OF 27
TH
OCTOBER, 2019, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T6.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 15.0
0N TO 19.5
0N AND LONG 65.00E TO 69.00E. THE MINIMUM CTT
IS MINUS 93 DEG C.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 HPA. AT 0900 UTC OF 27
TH OCTOBER, A BUOY (23456)
LOCATED NEAR LAT. 18.5°N / LONG. 67.4°E REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 996.7 HPA,
240
0 WIND WITH SPEED 27 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHT 7.5 METER AND SST 28.0°C. THE SEA CONDITION
IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#90 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:22 am

Microwave imagery shows an outer eyewall starting to form around the still powerful inner eyewall. While an EWRC will weaken Kyarr, there’s a chance it could recover, as the official forecast keeps it above 130 kt for the next 48 hours, which suggests the environment will remain favorable for some time.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#91 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:36 am

Highteeld wrote:Pressure down to 915 mb, 130 knot 3-minute sustained winds

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE PERSITANCE OF EYE PATTERN WITH PRESENT EYE TEMPERATURE +12.7
DEG.C AND EYE DIAMETER IS ABOUT 40 KM. AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0900 UTC OF 27
TH
OCTOBER, 2019, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T6.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 15.0
0N TO 19.5
0N AND LONG 65.00E TO 69.00E. THE MINIMUM CTT
IS MINUS 93 DEG C.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 HPA. AT 0900 UTC OF 27
TH OCTOBER, A BUOY (23456)
LOCATED NEAR LAT. 18.5°N / LONG. 67.4°E REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 996.7 HPA,
240
0 WIND WITH SPEED 27 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHT 7.5 METER AND SST 28.0°C. THE SEA CONDITION
IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

That officially makes Kyarr the most intense cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea in terms of central pressure then, unless post-analysis says otherwise. Gonu in 2007 was 920mb. They're currently tied when it comes to 3-min sustained winds.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#92 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:37 am

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#93 Postby Highteeld » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:56 am

JTWC:

04A KYARR 191027 1200 17.5N 66.8E IO 135 923
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#94 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:35 am

Highteeld wrote:JTWC:

04A KYARR 191027 1200 17.5N 66.8E IO 135 923


I think we can agree that’s 5-10 kt underestimated. Kyarr is easily a Cat 5 — just look at its eye temperatures!
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#95 Postby TorSkk » Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:26 am

aspen wrote:
Highteeld wrote:JTWC:

04A KYARR 191027 1200 17.5N 66.8E IO 135 923


I think we can agree that’s 5-10 kt underestimated. Kyarr is easily a Cat 5 — just look at its eye temperatures!


Yeah, and probably has been a cat 5 for the last 10 hours
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#96 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:30 am

TorSkk wrote:
aspen wrote:
Highteeld wrote:JTWC:

04A KYARR 191027 1200 17.5N 66.8E IO 135 923


I think we can agree that’s 5-10 kt underestimated. Kyarr is easily a Cat 5 — just look at its eye temperatures!


Yeah, and probably has been a cat 5 for the last 10 hours


If Kyarr can keep itself together until the next advisory or best track update, it could be upgraded to a Cat 5.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#97 Postby Buck » Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:47 am

Wow, what an intense, beautiful storm. To be honest, I only noticed that it was out there because I was watching the recent "Medicane" and zoomed too far out on Tel Aviv satellite loop and saw this storm.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#98 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 27, 2019 4:44 pm

Kyarr joins Typhoon Bualoi as yet another Cat 5 underestimated as a Cat 4 by the JTWC. It should’ve been upgraded last night when it reached T#7.0.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#99 Postby Astromanía » Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:03 pm

What a beautiful storm! deserves to be a cat 5
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#100 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:15 pm

The EWRC seems to be going along fairly well. The inner eyewall is quickly eroding as the outer one is becoming better established.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html
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