NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#101 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:27 pm

:uarrow: May give it another shot at Cat 5 if it completes it quickly.
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Re: NIO: SCS

#102 Postby Tailspin » Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:52 pm

mrbagyo wrote:Could be a Gonu challenger


That was a vgood call @ the time.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/04A-list.txt
2019OCT27 011500 7.0 921.4 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.54 -77.46 EYE 22 IR 76.6 17.12 -68.09 ARCHER MSG1 36.4
2019OCT27 014500 7.0 921.5 140.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 16.28 -76.55 EYE 23 IR 76.6 17.09 -68.06 ARCHER MSG1 36.3
2019OCT27 021500 7.0 922.5 140.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.87 -76.33 EYE 25 IR 76.6 17.17 -67.95 ARCHER MSG1 36.3
2019OCT27 024500 7.0 922.5 140.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.40 -75.48 EYE 25 IR 76.6 17.19 -67.90 ARCHER MSG1 36.2
2019OCT27 031500 7.0 922.5 140.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 17.34 -75.25 EYE 23 IR 76.6 17.23 -67.87 ARCHER MSG1 36.2
2019OCT27 034500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.8 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 17.74 -74.87 EYE 26 IR 76.6 17.28 -67.76 ARCHER MSG1 36.2
2019OCT27 041500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.8 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 17.34 -73.88 EYE 24 IR 76.6 17.29 -67.71 ARCHER MSG1 36.1
2019OCT27 044500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 16.01 -73.18 EYE 25 IR 76.6 17.31 -67.63 ARCHER MSG1 36.1
2019OCT27 051500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 15.74 -72.65 EYE 25 IR 76.6 17.33 -67.52 ARCHER MSG1 36.0
2019OCT27 054500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 15.34 -72.01 EYE 24 IR 76.6 17.32 -67.47 ARCHER MSG1 35.9
2019OCT27 061500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 16.81 -71.93 EYE 26 IR 76.6 17.31 -67.39 ARCHER MSG1 35.8
2019OCT27 064500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 16.68 -72.62 EYE 27 IR 76.6 17.33 -67.33 ARCHER MSG1 35.8
2019OCT27 071500 7.0 923.7 140.0 6.5 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.53 -72.97 EYE 27 IR 76.6 17.34 -67.28 ARCHER MSG1 35.8
2019OCT27 074500 7.0 923.7 140.0 6.5 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.40 -72.51 EYE 26 IR 76.6 17.36 -67.19 ARCHER MSG1 35.7


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https://imgur.com/wfmAPCp
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#103 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:00 pm

Another ERC?

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#104 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:27 pm



Maybe, or it’s the one that’s still going on, or maybe this was more of an “eyewall meld” like with Irma.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#105 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:56 am

It looks like the first EWRC completed and the second outer eyewall seen last night failed to take hold. It’s possible we could see additional strengthening today, but there seems to be a bit of a gap in the newly established eyewall, which could leave Kyarr vulnerable to dry air.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#106 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:53 am

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#107 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:43 am

Microwave imagery shows a broken main eyewall and a partial secondary trying to form. On infrared, Kyarr’s eye is gone and the CDO is horrendous. I think it may be down to Cat 2 status by now.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#108 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:58 am

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#109 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:40 am

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#110 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:05 am

Looks quite pathetic now. Maybe 40-45 kts. Falling apart.

Let me edit that intensity estimate. A recent microwave shows the center well-separated from dissipating convection. Maybe 30-35 kts. JTWC is saying 90 kts, while IMD says 73 kts (135 kph). Both are way too high.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Super Cyclonic Storm

#111 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks quite pathetic now. Maybe 40-45 kts. Falling apart.

Let me edit that intensity estimate. A recent microwave shows the center well-separated from dissipating convection. Maybe 30-35 kts. JTWC is saying 90 kts, while IMD says 73 kts (135 kph). Both are way too high.


I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyarr falls apart completely by tonight. SSTs don’t seem to be sufficient enough to keep the storm going beyond this. 90 kt is such a ridiculous overestimate compared to its underestimated peak of 135 kt.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#112 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:14 pm

At the time of this ScatSat, IMD had Kyarr at 70 kts and JTWC at 65 kts. Uh, nope! More like 35 kts max. Maha is stronger. What are they looking at?

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#113 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:32 am

The remnants of Kyarr are still producing deep convection as it passes near/over Yemen's Socotra island. The system could be bringing, or could've brought heavy rainfall to the island. Heavy rainfall may also affect the northern parts of Somalia during the next couple of days or so as the remnants continue to track southwestward.

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#114 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:41 am

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