NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

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Nancy Smar
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Re: NIO: Deep Depression(04A)

#21 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:01 pm

04A FOUR 191024 1800 15.8N 71.3E IO 35 1001
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Leben, was ist das?

Tailspin

Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#22 Postby Tailspin » Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:13 pm

aspen wrote:
Tailspin wrote:Maybe just a matter of time before dry dusty air coming of the sub continent starts getting
injested
https://i.imgur.com/NrIbgpt.gif
https://imgur.com/NrIbgpt


97A seems to be outside of the flow of dry air for now, and deepening on how quickly it can form a robust inner core, it could be somewhat resistant to it by the time the system moves away from India. It may not even reach the dry air for at least another two days, giving it plenty of time to RI.



Guess we see how it goes then. :ggreen: in the short term however nice poleward jet exhaust point.
Imagehttps://imgur.com/7BtffGs
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Re: NIO: INVEST 97A

#23 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:50 pm

Tailspin wrote:
aspen wrote:
Tailspin wrote:Maybe just a matter of time before dry dusty air coming of the sub continent starts getting
injested
https://i.imgur.com/NrIbgpt.gif
https://imgur.com/NrIbgpt


97A seems to be outside of the flow of dry air for now, and deepening on how quickly it can form a robust inner core, it could be somewhat resistant to it by the time the system moves away from India. It may not even reach the dry air for at least another two days, giving it plenty of time to RI.



Guess we see how it goes then. :ggreen: in the short term however nice poleward jet exhaust point.
https://i.imgur.com/7BtffGs.gif https://imgur.com/7BtffGs


Outflow and banding has already been looking nice, and if 97A starts rapid intensification, that outflow channel and the low shear around the storm will only help it.
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Re: NIO: Deep Depression(04A)

#24 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:44 pm

Image
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Tailspin

Re: NIO: Deep Depression(04A)

#25 Postby Tailspin » Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:49 pm

:uarrow: Models are hot for this, but yeah can see the dry air on that airmass.
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Re: NIO: Deep Depression (04A)

#26 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:51 pm

Image
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Re: NIO: Deep Depression(04A)

#27 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:53 pm

Best track intensity is raised to 40 kt, but Dvorak estimates have risen all the way to 50 kt with raw Ts up to T#3.7-3.9. I haven’t seen a newly formed storm get itself together this quickly in a while; it already has a ragged partial eyewall on microwave imagery as posted above.
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Tailspin

Re: NIO: Deep Depression(04A)

#28 Postby Tailspin » Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:13 pm

Image
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Re: NIO: Deep Depression(04A)

#29 Postby Tailspin » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:14 am

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#30 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:28 am

Now Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘Kyarr’ (Pronounced as Kyarr) over eastcentral Arabian Sea
The Deep Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved northwards with a speed of 05
Kmph during the past 06 hrs, intensified into a Cyclonic Storm ‘KYARR’ (Pronounced as Kyarr)
and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 25
th October, 2019 near latitude 16.0°N and longitude
71.3°E over eastcentral Arabian Sea, about 240 km west-southwest of Ratnagiri (Maharashtra), 380
km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 1850 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is
very likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 5 days. It is very likely to
intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
during subsequent 12 hours.

Image
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Tailspin

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#31 Postby Tailspin » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:20 am

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 2

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/imag ... n/rsmc.pdf
REMARKS:
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE FURTHER ORGANISATION AND STEADILY INCREASING CONVECTION
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE DURING PAST SIX HOURS HAVING CDO PATTERN. AS PER THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OF 0300 UTC ON 25
TH OCTOBER, 2019, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
IS T2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LIES OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 14.00N TO 19.50N EAST OF LONG
69.50E. THE MINIMUM CTT IS MINUS 93 DEG C.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA. AT 0300 UTC OF 25
TH OCTOBER, A BOUY(23451) LOCATED
AT 14.9°N/69.0°E REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004.6 HPA AND NORTHNORTHEASTERLY WIND WITH SPEED 18 KNOTS, RATNAGIRI (43110) REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 1000.6 HPA AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WITH SPEED 10 KNOTS AND GOA (43192)
REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004.6 HPA AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WITH
SPEED 16 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE MJO LIES IN THE PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
PHASE DURING NEXT 4 DAYS. CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERIES INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS 200 X10-5SEC-1
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. POSITIVE
VORTICITY IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20 X10 -5
S
-1
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT
20 X10-5S
-1
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15
KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 17° N. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER MOST PARTS OF EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IS 29-30°C AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS 80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE REGION THEREBY FAVORING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
AS THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO AND TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AND IS BEING
STEERED BY MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY
NORTHWARDS FOR SOME MORE TIME AND RE-CURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FROM AROUND 1800
UTC OF 25TH OCTOBER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NCMRWF UNIFIED MODELS (NCUM), NCMRWF ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION SYSTEM (NEPS), IMD GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS), NCEP GFS, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECATING SYSTEM (GEFS) AGREE WITH THE ABOVE INFERENCE.




ADT
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#32 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:46 am

Now at least a 50kts system based on the most recent ASCAT pass.

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#33 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:18 am

04A KYARR 191025 0600 15.9N 71.7E IO 45 994

:hmm:
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#34 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:28 am

Image
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#35 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:53 am

The current forecasts from the JTWC and IMD which show a track towards Oman are supported by the GFS and ECMWF.
A lot of models are still recurving the storm towards Gujarat in India or towards Pakistan, however, including the HWRF which was showing a westward track in its previous runs.

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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#36 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:36 am

Kyarr is less than a day old and is already up to 55 kt. Some of the latest model runs are having it stay closer to the Indian coast or recurve back towards it, potentially keeping the system out of the mass of dry air and over the warmest waters in the Arabian Sea. However, shear could be higher closer to land, and if it does recurve into India, it would be a much more dangerous storm than if it went through the whole AS and weakened before making landfall.
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Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#37 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:20 pm

Kyarr is producing some extremely vigorous convection (cloud tops around -85 C), but has been little more than a pulsating blob all day. However, it seems like an eye is trying to form, and ADT estimates have continued to rise to 75 kt.

The system is only 30 hours old, but has rapidly intensified from 35 kt to 60 kt. This phase is likely to continue through tomorrow as long as dry air doesn’t get entrained within the center.
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I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

Tailspin

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#38 Postby Tailspin » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:04 pm

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Tailspin

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#39 Postby Tailspin » Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:56 pm

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Tailspin

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#40 Postby Tailspin » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:11 pm

#1900hurricane a poor micro pass, or weak lower structure? value your learned opinions.
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