ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

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ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:58 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico.
The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the
associated convection is getting better organized. However, a
strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across
southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present
over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and
GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the
front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low. On the
other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become
the primary low pressure system. Either way, it is likely that a
low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical
cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect
portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h. Based
on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone
Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge
watches/warnings are being issued.

The system should track generally northeastward in the southern
portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model
guidance is in reasonably good agreement through 96 h. The forecast
track lies a little to the south of the model consensus, as the
UKMET has a somewhat more southerly track. The forecast track
brings the system across the southeastern United States between
48-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the
mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level
divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong
vertical shear. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for gradual
strengthening along the lines of that in the global models. It is
unlikely, though, that the system will develop into a classical
tropical cyclone. The system is expected to be fully extratropical
by 48 h, with gradual weakening expected after that time.

Regardless of the exact evolution of this weather system, portions
of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong
winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday.
Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground
level is possible along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to
Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in
these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely along portions of the
north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center, and begin well in advance of the
arrival of the center.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 22.4N 95.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0000Z 23.7N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 18/1200Z 25.8N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 30.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1200Z 35.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 37.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:46 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING
NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 95.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.6 North, longitude 95.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected
this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and
Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high ...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:47 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS...
...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 95.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida coast has been extended
eastward to the Aucilla River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been changed to a Storm Surge Warning
from Indian Pass, Florida to Clearwater Beach, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Aucilla River Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Aucilla River to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.9 North, longitude 95.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
is expected tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward
speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday
night and then move over portions of the southeastern United States
on Saturday.

Recent satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds
are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is
expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later
tonight or on Friday, with slow strengthening then expected through
Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico described
in the previous advisory continues to evolve. Recent
scatterometer data shows that the tropical disturbance in the
southwestern Gulf has a circulation elongated north-northeast to
south-southwest, with winds of 30-35 kt occurring in the
southwestern quadrant. However, the system currently has neither
sufficient convection or a well-enough defined center to be
designated a tropical or subtropical cyclone. The disturbance
remains in close proximity to a mid- to upper-level low moving
across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico and a frontal system
over the northern and northwestern Gulf. One change from the
previous global model guidance is the the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off of their forecasts of a separate baroclinic low to the north of
the disturbance. Instead, the global models are in reasonable
agreement that the disturbance, along with whatever vorticity
centers form along the front, will be part of a large low pressure
area that will affect portions of the northern Gulf coast and the
southeastern United States.

The initial motion of the disturbance is now 020/8. There is little
change in the forecast track philosophy, the track guidance, or the
NHC forecast track. The system should soon turn northeastward in
the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track
model guidance agrees on a continued northeastward motion through at
least 72 h. The forecast track, which is in best agreement with the
HCCA corrected consensus model, brings the system across the
southeastern United States between 36-72 h, and then has it moving
into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence
caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear.
Based on this, the intensity forecast again calls for gradual
strengthening until landfall in agreement with the global model
forecasts. While it remains unlikely that the system will develop
into a classical tropical cyclone, the ECMWF and GFS models suggest
enough organized convection will develop before landfall to make the
system a tropical or subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the
cyclone is forecast to become fully extratropical and gradually
weaken.

Regardless of the exact evolution, portions of the northern coast of
the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy
rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are
expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern
United States Saturday and Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida
Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the
southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to
the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 18/1800Z 26.9N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 31.4N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 35.6N 76.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z 37.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 94.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Aucilla River Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Aucilla River to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.3 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and
Friday night and then move over portions of the southeastern United
States on Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical
or subtropical storm later tonight or on Friday, with slow
strengthening then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 93.7W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Aucilla River to Yankeetown has
been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 24.1 North, longitude 93.7 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast
Friday and Friday night and then move over portions of the
southeastern United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical
or subtropical storm on Friday, with slow strengthening then
expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over much of
the central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The system is not yet
a tropical or subtropical cyclone as it still lacks sufficient
convective organization and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
that flew into the disturbance late this afternoon found a broad
circulation, but no evidence of a well-defined center. The global
models indicate that the circulation will become better defined by
early Friday, and that the low will deepen within an area of strong
upper-level divergence to the east of an upper-level trough over
southeastern Texas. As a result, strengthening is forecast while
the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 to 36
hours. While the system is unlikely to develop into a classical
tropical cyclone, it is expected to obtain enough organized
convection to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone on Friday or
Friday night before is reaches the northern Gulf coast. After
landfall, the cyclone is expected to become extratropical and
gradually weaken while it moves northeastward near the southeast
U.S. coast. By day 5, the low is forecast to be absorbed by a front
over the western Atlantic.

The disturbance is moving northeastward at about 10 kt. The system
should accelerate northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough
on Friday, and the northeastward motion should then continue during
the next few days. The low is forecast to slow down and turn
east-northeastward after 72 hours when the mid-level flow becomes
more zonal. The new NHC track forecast uses a blend of the lastest
global model fields and is very similar to the previous advisory.

Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds,
locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar
impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida
Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm
warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity
of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east
of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the
southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to
the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 24.1N 93.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1200Z 26.0N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 19/0000Z 28.2N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 30.2N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 37.0N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories

#6 Postby arlwx » Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:35 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
100 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 93.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.1 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system has been been moving
eastward during the past couple of hours, but is expected to resume
a track to the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) later today. A
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected for the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will approach
the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight, and then move over
portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then
anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance
again in several hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 5:07 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 24 to 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast
later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the
southeastern United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then
anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance
again in a few hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the possible center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Although the convection associated with the disturbance has
increased during the past few hours, there is no evidence that a
well-defined center has formed yet. One can observe several swirls
of low clouds rotating within a larger gyre. Most of the global
models forecast that the system will become better organized
later today, and given the current trend, NHC forecasts that a
tropical or most likely a subtropical cyclone will form later this
morning. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the disturbance in
a few hours.

The disturbance is located to the east of an upper trough which
is digging along the western Gulf of Mexico, and the upper-level
diffluence caused by the trough should induce some strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so before the system moves inland.
However, the simulated convection by the GFS and the ECMWF models
resembles a comma-shape pattern which is characteristic of a
subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to
become extratropical and gradually weaken while it moves
northeastward near the southeast U.S. coast. By day 5, the low is
forecast to be absorbed by a front over the western Atlantic.

Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly
uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northeast or 045 degrees
at 12 kt. The system should accelerate later today and continue
toward the northeast embedded within the flow ahead of the trough.
Track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.

Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds,
locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar
impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning today along the Florida
Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by later today along
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm
warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity
of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east
of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
Gulf Coast and southeastern United States coast from today through
Saturday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the
risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where
heavier rainfall is possible.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 24.3N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1800Z 26.8N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 19/0600Z 29.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0600Z 33.5N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0600Z 37.0N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z 37.5N 69.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:45 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 91.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.1 North, longitude 91.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and
tonight, and then move inland over portions of the southeastern
United States on Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm today, and slow strengthening is anticipated until
the system moves inland. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is on its way to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the possible center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:00 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 91.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.1 North, longitude 91.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and
tonight, and then move inland over portions of the southeastern
United States on Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm today, and slow strengthening is anticipated until
the system moves inland. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is on its way to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the possible center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

The satellite presentation of the system features an area of very
deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C within the eastern
part of a rather broad and elongated surface circulation seen in
visible satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
flight-level winds as high as 72 kt and SFMR winds of 45-50 kt
southeast of the ill-defined center, and based on these data the
initial intensity is set to 50 kt. The NOAA aircraft also measured a
pressure of around 1001 mb. While the cyclone has deepened, the
circulation is still quite elongated and not well defined, so the
system is maintained as a Potential Tropical Cyclone for now.

The global models continue to indicate that the circulation will
consolidate and the system will strengthen some during the next 12
hours or so, as the low-level circulation will be overtaken by an
upper-level trough currently situated over southwest Louisiana. The
system is still expected to become a tropical or subtropical storm
later today, with the exact phase dependent on the timing of the
circulation improving and the interaction with the upper trough.
Once the system moves inland, it should become extratropical by 36
hours and slowly weaken once it moves offshore of the Carolinas by
72-96 hours before dissipating by day 5. The new NHC intensity
forecast is adjusted upward from the previous one through 24 hours
based on the initial intensity and allows for the possibility of at
least some additional strengthening later today.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 055/19 given the lack of
a well-defined center. The track model guidance remains in good
agreement on the system moving quickly northeastward toward the
northeastern Gulf Coast during the next 24 hours as it interacts
with the upper trough. After moving inland, a northeastward motion
is forecast to continue until after 48 hours, when an east-
northeastward motion is expected, which will take the circulation
offshore over the Atlantic by 72 hours. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to, but a bit to the south of the previous one and is
close to the various track consensus aids.

Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the
northeastern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong
winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge later today and
Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the
Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and
Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning later today along the
Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely later today and tonight
along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and
intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and
eastern Gulf Coast and the southeast United States coast through
Saturday night.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 25.9N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0000Z 27.8N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 19/1200Z 29.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/1200Z 34.4N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1200Z 37.0N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z 37.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:35 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 89.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:34 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...NESTOR MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...STORM SURGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 88.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Grand Isle,
Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River, and from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to west of Navarre, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 88.5 West. Nestor is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the east-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight
and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States
Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is
expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the
western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible tonight. Nestor is forecast to weaken
after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical
characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area this evening, and continue through early
Saturday.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight through Saturday
morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Tropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Nestor's structure has evolved quite a bit today. Since the release
of the previous advisory, the center has become better defined based
on data from aircraft, satellite, and surface observations, and on
that basis, the system was classified as a tropical cyclone around
1800 UTC. Since that time, the center has become more separated from
the area of deep convection to the east, consistent with 30-40 kt of
deep-layer westerly shear analyzed by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS.
The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on aircraft data and
earlier ASCAT data.

The mid/upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over
southeastern Louisiana is beginning to impinge on Nestor, and the
cloud pattern has become more lopsided. It would not be surprising
to see Nestor take on a more subtropical appearance overnight, as
the GFS and ECMWF show the upper trough becoming superimposed on the
low-level circulation, with the pressure continuing to deepen and
some increase in the peak winds noted in both those models. This is
reflected in the 12-h intensity forecast of 55 kt. After that time,
the upper-level pattern becomes less favorable and Nestor should
weaken while it moves inland over the southeastern United States
and becomes post-tropical. Gale-force winds are shown over the
western Atlantic waters, but are not expected over land areas from
24 h onward. The global models show Nestor's circulation dissipating
by 96 hours, and that is reflected in the NHC forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 050/19, but remains somewhat
uncertain given the recent formation of a better defined center.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Nestor
expected to move quickly northeastward ahead of the approaching
upper trough and moving inland over the Florida Panhandle early
Saturday. The circulation center will move across the southeastern
United States before moving back offshore after 48 hours with a
slower east-northeastward to eastward motion shown late in the
period before dissipation. The new NHC track forecast lies a little
to the right of the previous and is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope. It should be noted that dangerous storm surge
and tropical storm force winds will occur along a large portion of
the Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning this evening along the
Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely later today and tonight
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm
warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity
of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east
of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
Gulf Coast and Southeast United States coast from late tonight
through Sunday.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 27.0N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 28.9N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 31.1N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/0600Z 33.4N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/1800Z 35.4N 75.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1800Z 36.6N 68.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST...
...STORM SURGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 87.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 87.6 West. Nestor is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on
Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the
southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it
becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore
of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches
the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and
it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become
post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL.based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft ..2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later tonight, and continue through
early Saturday.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through Saturday morning
across the northern and central Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...STORM SURGE AND WIND EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. Nestor is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on
Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the
southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it
becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore
of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches
the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and
it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become
post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently reported a minimum central
pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area within the next few hours, and continue
through Saturday afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through Saturday morning
across the northern and central Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters are investigating Nestor
this evening, and they have found that the minimum pressure
has dropped to 996 mb, 3 mb lower than this afternoon, but they have
not found higher winds yet. Based on preliminary data from both
aircraft, the initial wind speed remains 50 kt. The Air Force also
reported that there is a lot of lightning occurring in the
thunderstorms on Nestor's east side. Nestor remains a lopsided
tropical storm, with very intense deep convection extending well to
the east of the center with only small areas of convection near and
to the west of the center. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
strong westerly wind shear associated with a nearby shortwave
trough. Doppler radar imagery indicates that rain bands are now
spreading inland over much of the eastern portions of the Gulf
coast, and surface observations show the winds increasing near the
coast, but they are still not quite at tropical storm strength.

Water vapor satellite images show that the shortwave trough is
almost co-located with Nestor, which is likely part of the reason
why the minimum pressure has fallen. Even though it is not
explicitly reflected in the forecast, Nestor could strengthen a
little before the storm makes landfall. However, significant
intensification seems unlikely as the shortwave trough is expected
to bypass the cyclone soon, leaving the storm in a less favorable
environment of upper-level confluence and drier air. After landfall,
weakening is forecast and the models suggest that Nestor should lose
its tropical characteristics on Saturday when it tracks across the
southeast U.S. The weaker extratropical cyclone is expected to
dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days.

The tropical storm is moving quickly northeastward at about 20 kt.
The models are in good agreement that this general motion should
continue for the next couple of days, taking the center of the storm
inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning and across
portions of Georgia and the Carolinas later Saturday and Sunday.
The weakening system is expected to slow down and turn eastward over
the western Atlantic early next week before it merges with a cold
front. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the
previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus
models.

Given the structure of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and
tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large portion of the
Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center
through Saturday.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from
Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these
winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
Gulf Coast and Southeast United States coast into early Sunday
morning.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 28.5N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 30.2N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 32.7N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/1200Z 34.9N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0000Z 36.5N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z 37.5N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#14 Postby arlwx » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:48 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA...
...NESTOR GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical
Storm Nestor was estimated near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.0
West. Nestor is expected to move toward the northeast near 17 mph
(28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
today. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday.
On the forecast track, Nestor will move inland over the Florida
Panhandle later this morning, and will then move across portions of
the southeastern United States later today and Sunday while it
becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore
of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the
coast, but is forecast to weaken after it moves inland. The cyclone
is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become
post-tropical later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach or are
already reaching the coast within the warning area, and will
continue through this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic
coast of the southeastern United States later today.

RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern
United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through midday in northern
and central Florida Peninsula, and later today and tonight over
coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster AvilaTropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Nestor is rapidly losing the few tropical characteristics that it
once had. The cloud pattern consists of a large circulation of low
clouds with a comma-shape convective band well to the east of the
circulation. This band is already over a large portion of the
Florida peninsula. The center of the system or the area of minimum
pressure could be anywhere within this gyre, and the precise
location is uncertain. Surrounding data and ASCAT measurements
suggest that the winds have decreased to 45 kt.

All indications are that no significant strengthening is anticipated
before the broad circulation moves inland later today, and guidance
suggests that Nestor will lose its tropical characteristics while
moving across the southeastern United States. The weaker
extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate or merge with a cold
front in about 4 days or sooner.

Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. It appears that cyclone has slowed down but it
should resume a motion toward northeast or 045 degrees at about 15
kt. Most of the track models are in good agreement that this general
motion should continue, and the broad circulation will move inland
over the Florida Panhandle later today and across portions of
Georgia and the Carolinas later tonight and Sunday.

Given the non-tropical appearance of Nestor, dangerous storm
surge and tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large
portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's
center today.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from
Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these
winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern
United States into Sunday morning.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 29.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 30.7N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 33.5N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/1800Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0600Z 37.0N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z 37.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:45 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STORM SURGE AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...NESTOR STEADILY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 86.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather
radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Tropical Storm Nestor has redeveloped farther west near latitude
29.5 North, longitude 86.8 West. Nestor is moving toward the
northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). Some erratic motion toward the
northeast or east-northeast is expected through this morning. A turn
toward the east-northeast is forecast to occur Sunday. On the
forecast track, Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle
late this morning or early afternoon, and will then move across
portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday
as a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of
the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late
Sunday also as a post-tropical cyclone.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No
change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the coast,
but weakening is forecast to begin after the cyclone moves inland.
Nestor is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become
post-tropical by early afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east of the center. The Tyndall AFB Tower located
south of Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind
of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation
of 115 ft (35 m).

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida,
recently measured a water level of 3.2 ft above Mean Higher High
Water.

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations
is estimated to be 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach or are
already reaching the coast within the warning area, and will
continue through this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic
coast of the southeastern United States later today.

RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern
United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through midday in
the northern and central Florida Peninsula, and later today and
tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:53 am

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...NESTOR LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES A
POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STORM SURGE STILL AFFECTING THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Indian
Pass, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather
radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.3 North,
longitude 86.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the
east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue this morning and early afternoon, followed by a motion
toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast
track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move inland over the
Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions
of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The
cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina
into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the
Florida coast, followed by slight weakening after the cyclone moves
inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A
private weather station at Bald Point on Apalachee Bay, Florida,
recently measured a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to
56 mph (91 km/h). Buoys just offshore the coast of west-central
Florida have been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 50
mph (80 km/h) in some of the heavier squalls during the past couple
of hours.

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida,
recently measured a water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High
Water.

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations
is estimated to be 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic
coast of the southeastern United States later today.

RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions
of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through midday in central
and northern Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal
areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Nestor has made the transition to a post-tropical extratropical
cyclone. There has been no significant convection near the
low-level center for more than six hours, and satellite and surface
observations indicate that the cyclone's center has merged with a
nearby frontal system that lies along the coast of the Florida
panhandle. The overall cloud pattern more closely resembles that
of an occluded low pressure system now, including a pre-frontal
squall line or convergence zone a few hundred nmi east of the low.
Sustained tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to near 50 kt have
been reported by some of the buoys and coastal marine stations over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the past few hours. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is based on Doppler velocity values
of 50-55 kt between 4000-6000 ft ASL located over Apalachee Bay,
which approximately equals surface winds of 40-44 kt.

The now well-defined low-level center made a brief jog toward the
northwest early this morning as an upper-level low passed over the
larger cyclonic gyre. However, the motion since that time has
been slowly eastward, and the initial motion estimate is now
east-northeastward or 075/08 kt. Despite the earlier erratic motion,
the latest NHC track model guidance remains in very good agreement
on post-tropical Nestor moving northeastward and accelerating over
the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the east once
the cyclone reaches the North Carolina Outer Banks. By 48 hours, the
parent upper-level low is expected to weaken and open up into a
shortwave trough, and leave Nestor behind as a weakening
extratropical cyclone that dissipates by 96 h east of the U.S. east
coast. The new official forecast track was only nudged a little to
the west of the previous advisory due to the more westward initial
position, and lies close to an average of the deterministic 0000 UTC
and 0600Z GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET model runs.

No strengthening is anticipated before Nestor moves inland later
this afternoon. Some slight weakening will occur after the center
moves inland, but gale-force winds are expected develop over the
Atlantic waters of northeastern Florida to the Carolinas this
afternoon and tonight, and across the mid-Atlantic U.S. coastal
waters on Sunday. The extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate
or merge with a cold front in about 4 days or sooner.

Given the non-tropical structure of Nestor, dangerous storm surge
and tropical-storm-force and gale-force winds will occur along a
large portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of
Nestor's center today.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 4 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from
Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds will continue across portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these
winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern
United States into Sunday morning.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 29.3N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0000Z 31.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1200Z 34.1N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0000Z 36.0N 75.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1200Z 36.6N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1200Z 36.4N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 19, 2019 1:04 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...NESTOR MAKES LANDFALL ON ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST OF THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Ochlockonee River, Florida, and south of the Suwanee River, Florida.

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Suwanee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather
radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.7 North,
longitude 85.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is accelerating
toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a motion toward the
northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track,
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move farther inland over the
Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions
of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The
cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina
into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slight weakening is expected now that Nestor
has moved inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center, mainly to the east of the center over Apalachee
Bay and also off the Georgia coast. Offshore buoys and coastal
marine observing stations along the coast of west-central Florida,
including the mouth of Tampa Bay, have recently been reporting
tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations
is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside today and
tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon. The warning will likely be discontinued
later this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are expected to begin along portions of the
Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and
tonight.

RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions
of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon
over east-central Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over
coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: NESTOR - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:56 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 84.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast
of Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather
radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 30.4 North,
longitude 84.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the
northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions
of the southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is
expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the
western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
day or so, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday night and
Monday when Post-Tropical Nestor moves over the western Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km),
east of the center over Atlantic waters just offshore the Georgia
coast. The NOAA buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently reported a
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h)

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations
is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce
additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches this weekend
across portions of the southeastern United States.

WIND: Gale-force winds will develop along portions of the Atlantic
coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight.

TORNADOES: A tornado remains possible across parts of the Florida
Peninsula and coastal Georgia this afternoon and early evening, with
a few tornadoes possible tonight through Sunday morning across the
coastal Carolinas.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside through
tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on
St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that
center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between
Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new
center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded
frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved
inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on
a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters
elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia.

The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt.
Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or
so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the
North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is
expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a
weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should
then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore
of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar
to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the
tightly packed model guidance envelope.

Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday, mainly due to the
robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far
western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The
official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200
UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Key Messages:

1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters
and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and
spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday.

2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern
United States into Sunday.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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