ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#161 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:56 pm

Should see special advisory shortly!
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#162 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:57 pm

Does not have much time left but its a TS. for sure..
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#163 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:59 pm

Ironic, just when they measure a 5C warm core at 1500 ft, cloud tops warm and rain rate drops.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#164 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:01 pm

Think they will have to move the forecast track a little eastward. The center was found east and outside the cone.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#165 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:01 pm

Wow, talk about a very short life span as a TS in all likelihood. Probably for only 4-6 hours tops if that even, before the frontal merger actually occurs.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#166 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:04 pm

It will be an interesting discussion at the next advisory in a couple of hours but by that time it may be post tropical lol.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#167 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:07 pm

This is a classic case in which the Recon arrived just in the nick of time to confirm it was a warm core TS. It just may be happening right now the frontal merger.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#168 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:08 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Wow, talk about a very short life span as a TS in all likelihood. Probably for only 4-6 hours tops if that even, before the frontal merger actually occurs.



well offically anyway.. it was likely a TS last evening,..
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#169 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Wow, talk about a very short life span as a TS in all likelihood. Probably for only 4-6 hours tops if that even, before the frontal merger actually occurs.



well offically anyway.. it was likely a TS last evening,..


Yeah, Aric I agree with you. It may actually had been a TS at least by sunrise earlier today.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#170 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:11 pm

Probably see the winds upped but become post-tropical on the 5pm advisory. I don't see them actually naming it.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#171 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:11 pm

Recon shows that the cooler air is just in the SW quadrant for now, NE quadrant, its core & SE quadrant remain warm.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#172 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:15 pm

This front is very shallow and weak. The winds on the north side of the circulation are resisting the progression of the front. I’m not sure if it will ever transition fully to non-tropical before making landfall. All academic as impacts will be the same, but very interesting.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#173 Postby MGC » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:15 pm

Monitoring the situation in the GOM here at Sloppy Joe's Bar in Key West. Windy here in the keys today. TD 17 is likely a TS right now until the cold air arrives soon. Bartender another drink please...,.MGC
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#174 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:15 pm

Hammy wrote:Probably see the winds upped but become post-tropical on the 5pm advisory. I don't see them actually naming it.


That would be an unnamed TS in post-analysis.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#175 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:16 pm

Listed as tropical storm on the BT, looks like I spoke minutes too soon.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#176 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:16 pm

We may be seeing a threat of severe weather and tornadoes a bit farther east than initially thought as Olga or whatever left of her will impact areas around the NE GOM and Florida Panhandle potentially later tonight and overnight. I would not be surprised to see Tornado Watch by SPC to be extended or expanded a bit farther east also.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#177 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:19 pm

They named 18L Pablo

So, this is Olga.

Image
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#178 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:20 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Olga is born


Haven't seen anything from the NHC yet.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#179 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:20 pm

The LLC has been moving on an almost NE heading all day, not North like the NHC said in its last advisory.
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Tropical Depression

#180 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:24 pm

They may do as they did with Nestor to begin with. Call it a Potential tropical cyclone with 50 mph winds, or something to that effect
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