WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:17 pm

91W INVEST 191105 1800 9.8N 148.5E WPAC 45 0
Last edited by Hayabusa on Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:20 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:18 pm

Uncertain future. Seems to be a monsoon depression type right now.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:11 pm

Revised

91W INVEST 191105 1800 9.8N 148.5E WPAC 15 0
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:13 pm

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:27 pm

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#6 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:38 pm

This one looks very broad, I would agree with Hayabusa - looks like a monsoon depression, let's see if it can tighten its circulation
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:41 am

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 am

Euro and GFS tightens it once it becomes quasi stationary near the east coast of Luzon, still long range it may or it may not happen earlier, we'll see.


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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:11 am

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:31 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 071800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 145E WNW SLOWLY.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:58 pm

Euro 12z makes it a typhoon while meandering near the east coast of Luzon, I have doubts about this 12z run although GFS and UKMET somehow shows it.

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#12 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:23 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Euro 12z makes it a typhoon while meandering near the east coast of Luzon, I have doubts about this 12z run although GFS and UKMET somehow shows it.

https://i.imgur.com/EAAncjE.png


Maybe we could see a Neoguri 2.0? The meandering track near Luzon and conservative model intensity estimates are quite similar as of now.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:34 pm

aspen wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Euro 12z makes it a typhoon while meandering near the east coast of Luzon, I have doubts about this 12z run although GFS and UKMET somehow shows it.

https://i.imgur.com/EAAncjE.png


Maybe we could see a Neoguri 2.0? The meandering track near Luzon and conservative model intensity estimates are quite similar as of now.


It's always possible on the underestimated intensity, the question is where would this go after? Current forecast plows through Luzon but given how TCs track this year it could recurve again even if it's November.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#14 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:36 pm

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:09 pm

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:33 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 081800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 12N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#17 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:45 pm

Euro 12Z still develops unlike GFS
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:52 pm

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#19 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:56 pm

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#20 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:20 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 102130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102130Z-110600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101951ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 818 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 102104Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91W WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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