WPAC: FENGSHEN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#21 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:41 pm

Looks like a sheared circulation is present.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#22 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:45 pm

Anyone notice something different :P
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#23 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:03 pm

TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
245 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 167.9E TO 17.9N 152.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 168.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY
272 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC PERIPHERY AND
MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 102312Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
92W IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120300Z.
NNNN

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#24 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:14 pm

The GFS is still showing this becoming a typhoon within the next few days.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#25 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:59 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (92W)

#26 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:34 am

TD
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 11 November 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 11 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°05' (14.1°)
E165°25' (165.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)


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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (26W)

#27 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:03 am

26W TWENTYSIX 191111 1200 14.0N 164.8E WPAC 25 1005
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (26W)

#28 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:32 am

The JTWC expects 26W to peak around 95 kt, but notes that moderate to high shear throughout most of its track will keep it from rapidly intensifying.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (26W)

#29 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:02 am

HWRF wants a Cat 4 major
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (26W)

#30 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:59 pm

The latest GFS run is considerably less aggressive with 26W and barely has it becoming a typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (26W)

#31 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:56 pm

ASCAT-C got a good partial pass. Looks like winds could be as high as 35 kt.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (26W)

#32 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:11 am

TS 1925 (Fengshen)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 12 November 2019
<Analysis at 06 UTC, 12 November>
Scale-
Intensity-
Center positionN15°25' (15.4°)
E160°20' (160.3°)
Direction and speed of movementWNW 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind areaALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity-
Center position of probability circleN16°55' (16.9°)
E157°40' (157.7°)
Direction and speed of movementWNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle40 km (20 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 November>
Intensity-
Center position of probability circleN17°40' (17.7°)
E155°30' (155.5°)
Direction and speed of movementWNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle60 km (30 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity-
Center position of probability circleN18°35' (18.6°)
E149°40' (149.7°)
Direction and speed of movementW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning areaALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 15 November>
Intensity-
Center position of probability circleN21°25' (21.4°)
E145°30' (145.5°)
Direction and speed of movementNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle190 km (100 NM)
Storm warning areaALL 240 km (130 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity-
Center position of probability circleN25°55' (25.9°)
E148°30' (148.5°)
Direction and speed of movementNNE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:24 am

Right on cue with that ASCAT pass.
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:12 pm

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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:37 pm

For a storm whose name translates to “wind god,” Fengshen is quite pathetic and tiny. It’s unlikely to live up to its name nor the intensity of the 2002 storm as long as the moderate to high shear continues.
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:44 pm

Shear is neither high nor moderate and is favorable for Fengshen, there's something else.

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:15 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 601
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION; HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS ARE SHORT AND CONSTRAINED CLOSE TO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 122216Z GPM
89GHZ COLORIZED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ON TOP OF A TIGHT CLUSTER OF
AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND T2.5/35KTS FROM
RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS, OVERALL, IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR
THROUGH TAU 36 WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AXIS. THE
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK 80KTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE
NUMERICAL MODELS AND NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 26W WILL TURN MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE BUILDING A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPEDE THE FORWARD
MOTION. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 30KTS. DUE TO THE
COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN, THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WIDELY, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK./
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:17 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Shear is neither high nor moderate and is favorable for Fengshen, there's something else.

https://i.imgur.com/nOepFq1.gif


Maybe some dry air entrainment? Or moderate shear only present in a certain level?
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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:02 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Shear is neither high nor moderate and is favorable for Fengshen, there's something else.

https://i.imgur.com/nOepFq1.gif

I suspect the subsident environment, especially to the east of Fengshen, is making it difficult for the CIMSS products to make an accurate assessment of upper level wind direction due to lack of upper level clouds to track. I made a band 8/band 3 overlay to see if that can help highlight some of the upper air motion in contrast to low level cloud motion seen on visible imagery. To me it looks like it's trying to establish an upper level anticyclone, but it's being backsheared, not allowing it to stack up properly. Dry air from this subsident environment is also probably playing a role. We've seen recently with Halong where intense sustained organized convection can ward off shear, but stability on the eastern side could be preventing that from happening.

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Re: WPAC: FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:32 pm

Yeah dry air could be the problem or including underestimated shear too

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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