EPAC: RAYMOND - Post-Tropical

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Sciencerocks
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:23 pm

779
WTPZ45 KNHC 161432
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Raymond is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center located on
the western edge of the convection as indicated by microwave data.
Although the cloud pattern has become less organized since
yesterday, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an
initial intensity of 45 kt. It appears that Raymond has already
peaked in intensity, and given that the shear over the cyclone will
increase significantly, the NHC forecast calls for weakening.
Raymond is forecast to be a tropical depression or even a remnant
near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion of the
Baja California in about 36 hours. In about 2 or 3 days, Raymond or
its remnants are expected to be absorbed by a developing mid-to
upper level trough just west of the peninsula.

Raymond appears to be moving toward the north or 355 degrees at
8 kt. Soon, the cyclone will be embedded within the southerly flow
ahead of the developing trough or low mentioned above. This flow
pattern should steer Raymond on a general northward track until it
becomes a shallow cyclone. After that time, it should move move
toward the north-northwest with the low-level flow. The later
portion of the track forecast is highly uncertain given that the
cyclone will be very weak or probably dissipating.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.8N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 20.0N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 22.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:39 pm

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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:08 pm

494
WTPZ45 KNHC 162036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

The could pattern has deteriorated this afternoon, and the
circulation is still there, but becoming elongated. In fact, the
convection no longer shows a cyclonic curvature and it has the
appearance of a linear cloud band. Dvorak estimates also reflect
some weakening, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been
set at 40 kt.

The shear is forecast to markedly increase soon as a mid-level
trough or low develops just west of the Baja california peninsula.
This belligerent shear pattern calls for weakening, and Raymond
is forecast to become a tropical depression or even degenerate into
a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours. The system then
should become absorbed by the developing mid-to upper level trough.
The weakening is depicted by global models which clearly show the
vertical fracture of the cyclone with the mid-level center moving
northeastward over mainland Mexico and the weakening low-level
center moving north-northwestward just west of the Peninsula.

Raymond has been moving little or drifting northward during the past
several hours. However, most of the track guidance indicate that
Raymond should move northward with an increase in forward speed
embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough
west of the Baja California peninsula. The later portion of the
track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be
very weak or probably dissipating.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.5N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:54 pm

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Astromanía
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Astromanía » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:21 pm

I'm not worried about this anymore
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:23 pm

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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:54 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170234
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Raymond's cloud pattern has continued to lose organization since
the last advisory, with the remaining convection now occurring in a
ragged band to the east of the center. The initial intensity has
been reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/5. A developing
mid-latitude deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja
California peninsula is becoming the main steering influence for
Raymond, and this feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn
northward and accelerate during the next 12-24 h. After that,
Raymond or its remnants should turn north-northwestward to
northwestward as it becomes absorbed into the mid-latitude system.

Southwesterly vertical shear is increasing over the tropical
cyclone, and it should increase further during the next couple of
days. Thus, continued weakening is forecast, and Raymond is now
expected to become a depression in 18-24 h, a remnant low by 36 h,
and dissipate completely after 48 h. If organized convection does
not return to the cyclone, all of these events could occur earlier
than currently forecast.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 18.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 23.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 26.1N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:46 am

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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:48 am

319
WTPZ45 KNHC 170838
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Raymond Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

Although Raymond continues to produce clusters of deep convection
to the east and northeast of its center, the convection is not well
organized and there is no evidence of banding features. A recent
ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the circulation has become elongated
from north to south and that the maximum winds have decreased to
around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
lowered to 30 kt. Southwesterly vertical wind shear has already
increased over the cyclone and the shear is expected to become
quite strong within the next 24 hours. As a result, weakening is
anticipated and Raymond is likely to become a remnant low later
today or tonight. The circulation is forecast to dissipate in 36
to 48 hours when it moves near Baja California.

Raymond is now moving northward around 8 kt. A deep-layer
trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula
should steer Raymond northward to north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed today. After that time, Raymond or its remnants are
forecast to turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it is
absorbed into the aforementioned trough.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula over the next day or two. These rains could
cause life-threatening flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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