EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Remnants

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Sciencerocks
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Tropical Depression

#21 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:44 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180833
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Organized deep convection had been sparse for a few hours, but some
cold cloud tops have recently developed near the estimated center
location. Infrared imagery shows a much larger area of deep
convection farther to the north and northeast, but this feature
lacks curvature and doesn't seem to be directly associated with the
depression's circulation. A partial ASCAT-A pass around 0315Z showed
only 15-20 kt winds to the east of the center, but the initial
intensity is being held, perhaps generously, at 25 kt since the
entire circulation was not sampled. The NHC forecast shows the
system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, and while the global
models show the circulation dissipating by 72 h, it wouldn't be
surprising if this happened much sooner.

The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery, but
based on the earlier scatterometer data and the latest satellite
fixes, the initial motion estimate is 305/06. The system should be
steered generally westward from now until dissipation by a weak
low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies near the
north edge of the guidance envelope close to HCCA and the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 12.2N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 12.3N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 12.4N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0600Z 12.5N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E- Remnants

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:54 pm

Remnants Of Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019
200 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2019

A recent ASCAT-A scatterometer overpass indicates that the
depression no longer has a well-defined center and has degenerated
into a surface trough. In addition, the maximum winds near the
the trough are only about 20 kt, with a few possibly rain
contaminated 25-kt vectors found in convection well to the northeast
of the system. The trough is expected to move west at about 6 kt
for the next several days, steered by the low-level trade winds.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 12.4N 106.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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