WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Post-Tropical

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Nancy Smar
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#21 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:06 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
WWJP27 RJTD 180000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 140E WEST SLOWLY.

Could it become a tropical storm during the next two or three days?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#22 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:00 pm

I think it could become Fung-wong, even though GFS backed off, it still shows a TS like Euro. Whether or not it would intensify into something more than a TS is the more interesting :?:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#23 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:07 pm

Yeah, I think it'll develop given the support it has, but don't think it'll get very strong as of now. It may help push the November ACE past 2013 for the highest since 2003 though.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#24 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:53 am

med
ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152ZNOV2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZNOV2019//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY
297 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH AN 180009Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF FORMATIVE
BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. 93W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSETTING MARGINAL (15
TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 93W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LIMITED INTENSIFICATION,
POTENTIALLY JUST REACHING BASIN WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#25 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:14 am

The global models have pushed landfall time to 00z-12z Thursday, giving 93W a little more time to get its act together.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#26 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:56 am

There's this little ball of convection which I think might be covering the LLCC, if that is what it is then I think it is starting to get more vertically stacked?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#27 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:24 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#28 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:22 am

Pretty evident that there's still some easterly or northeasterly shear based on this loop.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#29 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:22 pm

Might be on the doorstep of classification.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#30 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:15 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 135.6E TO 16.6N 128.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
135.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 136.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY
830 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED
BY POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. AN 181820Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL BANDING FURTHER SUPPORTING A
BROAD LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192200Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#31 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:29 pm

Now that it seems like 93W is going to follow almost an identical path to Kalmaegi, but with only 48-60 hours to intensify, I wonder if we could see a surprise typhoon out of this like the latter. I don’t expect anything like Fengshen or Bualoi, but a Cat 1 or 2 seems to be on the table if the system can get itself together quick enough.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#32 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:12 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (93W)

#33 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:17 pm

Image

TD
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 19 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 19 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°30' (11.5°)
E132°30' (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 19 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E130°00' (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 20 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35' (15.6°)
E127°55' (127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (93W)

#34 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:12 am

2019-11-19 12:00 UTC
- nameless -
Position: 14.32N 129.62E
CI: 2.0 / DT: 2.0
MET: 1.5 / PT: 2.0
FT: 2.0

It will become a named tropical storm very soon.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (93W)

#35 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:58 am

93W INVEST 191119 1200 14.6N 130.0E WPAC 25 1004
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (93W)

#36 Postby NewbieAboutcyclones » Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:34 am

If it is in Atlantic, it is already a TS. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (28W)

#37 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:07 am

28W TWENTYEIGH 191119 1200 14.6N 130.0E WPAC 25 1005
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (28W)

#38 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:30 am

Now TD 28W. The JTWC forecasts a peak of 55 kt before passing very near the tip of Luzon in 48 hours.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (28W)

#39 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:35 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (28W)

#40 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:43 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W
(TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 523 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE
EYE SEEN IN A 190911Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.0-2.0 (25-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SST, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
GRADUALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 48. TD 27W WILL
BRUSH THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON AT TAU 72 AS STRONG (30-35
KNOTS) SHEAR IMPEDES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A GUIDANCE
SPREAD OF 200NM AT TAU 48.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE NORTHWEST OF LUZON. INCREASING VWS
(40-50 KNOTS) WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED AT TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH
THE DIRECTION OF TRACK; HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK IS CURRENTLY
HEDGED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GROUPING (JGSM, ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE). THE NORTHERN GROUPING OF GLOBAL MEMBERS (NAVGEM AND
AFUM) EXPECTS A TRACK CLOSER TO TAIWAN. THIS UNCERTAINTY LENDS
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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