WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

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aspen
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#461 Postby aspen » Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:00 pm

What do you think Kammuri’s intensity will be at 06z? I’m guessing 100-110 kt based on the current rate of eye development.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#462 Postby Highteeld » Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:01 pm

110 is about what i was thinking too
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#463 Postby Highteeld » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:06 pm

Are my eyes playing games on me or is the eye much smaller now than it was 3 hours ago?
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#464 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:07 pm

Probably still has a shot at cat 5, it's getting more symmetrical
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#465 Postby Highteeld » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:13 pm

Positive eye temp
2019DEC02 023000 4.7 972.7 82.2 4.4 4.7 6.4 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF 0.74 -74.99 EYE 10 IR 24.1 13.13 -126.09 ARCHER HIM-8 22.9
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#466 Postby Highteeld » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:15 pm

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator) - 0024Z

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#467 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:39 pm

I think Raw T can still reach >7.5 in the next few hours once the eye clears and the CDO fully wraps the eye. Environment can support full CDG cover - TP is about -87.5°C between 80 to 90 mb based on latest Legazpi sounding
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#468 Postby Highteeld » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:47 pm

Eye sure looks to be shrinking (about 3.5 hours apart)
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#469 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:04 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#470 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:20 pm

what good radar for area were typhoon at?
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#471 Postby Highteeld » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:25 pm

area of -90* convection showing up very well on radar

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#472 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:26 pm

floridasun78 wrote:what good radar for area were typhoon at?



https://v2-cloud.meteopilipinas.gov.ph/#
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#473 Postby Highteeld » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:31 pm

First Warm Medium Grey eye pixel has punched through

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#474 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:18 am

2019DEC02 044000 5.5 957.2 102.0 5.5 6.3 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 2.96 -75.86 EYE 11 IR 24.1 12.98 -125.85 ARCHER HIM-8 23.0
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#475 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:05 am

Parts of Northern Samar are already getting hit hard since morning. Unfortunately, it looks like the worst conditions won't happen until evening or tonight when the eye passes just to their north.

Some videos from Northern Samar:
https://www.facebook.com/PhilippineSTAR ... 081665205/
https://www.facebook.com/PhilippineSTAR ... 548007653/
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#476 Postby cebuboy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:12 am

I've checked the track of this Typhoon , the eye will directly pass over Legazpi City at its full strength. (which is a big city by Philippine standards with many people)
I'm a bit worried because this is a coastal city in front of Albay Gulf.
This bears similarity to Tacloban City during Haiyan landfall.

Storm surge is always high when it hits coastal gulf areas because of the coastal shape (incoming surge is trapped at its concentrated directly to the coast)
I also check that its high tide in the evening when it will make a landfall.
I do hope that people in the coastal area of this city will be entirely evacuated.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#477 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:18 am

Now a CI 6.0, minimal cat 4

2019DEC02 054000 6.0 946.0 115.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -33.07 -75.98 EYE -99 IR 24.1 13.00 -125.62 ARCHER HIM-8 23.2
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#478 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:39 am

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#479 Postby Highteeld » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:43 am

Pretty good transformation in the last day
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#480 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:58 am

Mid cat 3
29W KAMMURI 191202 0600 13.0N 125.6E WPAC 105 951
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