SPAC: RITA - Post-Tropical

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Nancy Smar
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SPAC: RITA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:51 am

90P INVEST 191121 1200 10.0S 170.0E SHEM 15 0
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:32 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: invest 90P

#2 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:22 pm

The Euro is surprisingly aggressive with this one and bombs it out to 960-965 mbar. However, like 94W, there is quite a good agreement between the global models on this one, with the GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM bringing it to Cat 1-2 intensity by early next week. It should be noted that SSTs and OHC between the equator and 10-15 S are high enough to support a maximum potential intensity of <900 mbar and >150 kt, if other environmental factors are favorable.
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Re: SPAC: invest 90P

#3 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:11 am

90P INVEST 191122 0600 7.1S 163.3E SHEM 20 1005
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Re: SPAC: invest 90P

#4 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:18 am

There continues to be strong agreement among the global models on 90P’s development, which is expected to occur within the next 24-48 hours. Both the GFS and Euro bomb it out to 960-965 mbar, and the CMC is not far behind.

The currently available name for the system, and the first in the 2019-2020 list, is Rita. I’m surprised it did not get a global retirement after 2005.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#5 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:27 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 222157 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F CENTRE[1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 8.1S
165.6E AT 222100UTC. POSITION POOR. TD01F SLOW MOVING.
CONVECTIONS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OVER THE
SUPPOSED LLCC BUT ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. TD01F LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENT. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVE SOUTHWARDS.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
************************************************************************************
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#6 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:02 pm

WTPS21 PGTW 230330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S 166.0E TO 9.8S 169.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 166.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S
163.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 166.3E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT BY A 22229Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT PROVIDES FOR MODERATE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEVELOPMENT INTO WARNING STATUS IS LIKELY BY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240330Z.//
NNNN

TXPS41 PHFO 230008 CCA
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2340 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019
A. INVEST 90P
B. 22/2340Z
C. 7.6S
D. 165.8E
E. HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.5/1.5/INITIAL FIX
G. VIS/IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 0.25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5. PT AGREES. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.
$$
KINO

TPPS10 PGTW 230305
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (E OF SOLOMON ISLANDS)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 8.59S
D. 166.96E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#7 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:14 pm

Image
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#8 Postby Astromanía » Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:34 pm

Models are more bearish everytime with this, why there is still not a significant system in southern hemisphere already this season?
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#9 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:02 pm

Now TC 1P, but because the center formed further south than expected, it probably won’t strengthen much.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#10 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:30 pm

Astromanía wrote:Models are more bearish everytime with this, why there is still not a significant system in southern hemisphere already this season?

It's still early in the season for the Southern Hemisphere. Give it more time. Most of the intense systems occur from February to April.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 01F(01P)

#11 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:19 pm

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Re: SPAC: RITA - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:31 am

WTPS01 NFFN 240600

GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI NOV 240820 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4

SOUTH 168.4 WEST AT 240600 UTC.

POSITION POOR.

REPEAT POSITION 10.4S 168.4W AT 240600 UTC.

CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 02 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO

50 KNOTS BY 251800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 11.4S 168.9E AT 241800 UTC

AND NEAR 12.5S 169.4E AT 250600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND

REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE

NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC

AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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Re: SPAC: RITA - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:20 am

Upgraded to 55 kt and expected to peak at 65 kt later today.
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Re: SPAC: RITA - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:01 pm

Convection has warmed due to the arrival of daytime, but an eye is starting to form, and there’s a chance of this becoming much stronger at diurnal max.
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Re: SPAC: RITA - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:21 pm

01P RITA 191125 0000 11.8S 169.7E SHEM 65 983
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Re: SPAC: invest 90P

#16 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:06 pm

aspen wrote:There continues to be strong agreement among the global models on 90P’s development, which is expected to occur within the next 24-48 hours. Both the GFS and Euro bomb it out to 960-965 mbar, and the CMC is not far behind.

The currently available name for the system, and the first in the 2019-2020 list, is Rita. I’m surprised it did not get a global retirement after 2005.


That is what I am wondering too.
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