WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

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aspen
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#61 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:35 pm

Phanfone’s core seems to have mostly survived landfall, and it looks like it will continue going between the islands.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#62 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:52 pm

cebuboy wrote:Right now, we feel some gusty winds with a bit of rain. I live somewhere north of Cebu. This will hopefully over tomorrow. The track forecast is a bit accurate.

Same, I noticed the rain has really let up early this morning but suddenly around 3:45 it picked up briefly. I can't say I've ever had rainbands from a Christmas typhoon before...
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#63 Postby Highteeld » Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:48 pm

30W PHANFONE 191224 1800 11.7N 123.4E WPAC 90 970
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#64 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Dec 24, 2019 5:17 pm

HWRF init it as cat 4...

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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#65 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Dec 24, 2019 5:19 pm

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TY 1929 (Phanfone)
Issued at 21:40 UTC, 24 December 2019

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 24 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°40' (11.7°)
E123°05' (123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°20' (12.3°)
E120°55' (120.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 25 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00' (13.0°)
E118°55' (118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E116°35' (116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 27 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55' (13.9°)
E114°40' (114.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 28 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20' (14.3°)
E111°30' (111.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 29 December>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E109°35' (109.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1010 hPa
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#66 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Dec 24, 2019 5:20 pm

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WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (PHANFONE)
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 30W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A
PERSISTENT 15 NM WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A COLD, CONVECTIVE
EYEWALL. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH
IS BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KTS,
BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90
KTS) AND THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.5 (102 KTS), AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INTENSITY AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE WATERS WITHIN THE PHILIPPINES
ARCHIPELAGO. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TY 30W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 30W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
96. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY OFFSET LAND
INTERACTION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 18, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 90 KTS. SMALL TRACK VARIATIONS TAKING THE
SYSTEM MORE OR LESS OVER LAND WILL IMPACT THE INTENSITY THROUGH
TAU 24. ONCE TY 30W EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, BETWEEN TAUS
12 AND 24, IT WILL INTENSIFY TO A MAXIMUM OF 100 KTS AT TAU 36.
DUE TO THE COMPLICATED NATURE OF THE LAND INTERACTION, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
COAMPS-GFS AND ECMWF INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND AT THE TOP OF OR ABOVE THE 70% PROBABILITY CURVE;
HOWEVER, THE GFS INTENSITY SOLUTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE
CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TOWARDS ECMWF IN RECOGNITION OF THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOST RECENT MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS
DIVERGENCE AMONG SOME MODELS WITH GALWEM, UKMET, AND THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE TAKING A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE
TURNING DUE WEST. THE JTWC TRACK MAINTAINS CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS TRACKS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE DEEP LAYER STR TO THE
NORTHEAST THAT WILL STEER THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72. BASED ON THE
DIVERGING MODEL GUIDANCE THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK HAS DECREASED TO FAIR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DECREASING SSTS
(25-26 DEGREES CELSIUS), INCREASING VWS AND RELATIVELY COOL, DRY
AIR FROM A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. AS
A RESULT, TY 30W WILL BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. FURTHERMORE,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES A COL BETWEEN THE STEERING
STR AND A LESS PRONOUNCED STR TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN BOTH NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT AND ALONG TRACK
SPEED AFTER TAU 72. ALL MODELS RECURVE THE SYSTEM AROUND THE DEEP-
LAYER STEERING RIDGE THAT BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN LATER TAUS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM, UKMET, AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE THAT
TRACK DUE WEST IN LATER TAUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK NOW CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT TAU 120. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD.//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#67 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:41 pm

It's starting to pick up in Boracay island

 https://twitter.com/naagas_freddie/status/1209619614629449728


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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#68 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:52 pm

TY 1929 (Phanfone)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 25 December 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 25 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°55' (11.9°)
E122°25' (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#69 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:30 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#70 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:44 pm

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#71 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:10 pm

95kts by JTWC

Image
Image
Image
TY 1929 (Phanfone)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 25 December 2019

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 25 December>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°55' (11.9°)
E121°50' (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#72 Postby Astromanía » Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:55 pm

Nasty landfalls! the worst case for an hurricane it's to be above of a small island with this thing above without a way to scape with cyclone doesn't weakining and indeed strenghts or maintain its intensity, hope everyone it's okey there
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#73 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:37 am

Ursula looks like a tiny typhoon. Explains why it is such a gorgous Christmas day here instead of rain as forecast.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#74 Postby Astromanía » Wed Dec 25, 2019 2:50 am

Astromanía wrote:Nasty landfalls! the worst case for an hurricane it's to be above of a small island without a way to scape with the cyclone strenghtening or maintain its intensity, hope everyone it's okey there
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#75 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:40 am

It looks like Phanfone has finally realized it’s been moving over land for the last 24-36+ hours. Convection has significantly diminished, and it may not even be a typhoon anymore.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#76 Postby NotoSans » Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:28 pm

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#77 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:49 pm

Coming back pretty nicely, at least in the short term.

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#78 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:52 am

The Moon's shadow associated with the solar eclipse that occurred this December 26th passing over Typhoon Phanfone (first image by the Himawari-8 satellite, and second image by the Suomi NPP satellite).

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Satellite animation of the Moon's shadow progressing from west to east. (Himawari-8)

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#79 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:51 pm

Does anyone has news from PH about how extensive was the destruccion and if there were people that died? (Hopefully none)
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Severe Tropical Storm

#80 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:41 pm

STS 1929 (Phanfone)
Issued at 03:40 UTC, 27 December 2019

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 27 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°50' (14.8°)
E116°25' (116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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