SPAC: SARAI - Tropical Cyclone

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Nancy Smar
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SPAC: SARAI - Tropical Cyclone

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Dec 22, 2019 3:18 am

99P INVEST 191222 0600 9.0S 160.0E SHEM 15 0
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:23 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 99P

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:40 am

WWPS21 NFFN 240800
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 240818 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTER [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 08.7S
176.9E AT 240600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD03F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC
WITH INDICATION OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. OVERALL
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND
31 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE AND MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 03F(invest 99P)

#3 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:02 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 08.2 SOUTH
176.0 EAST AT 250000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS/IR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD03F SLOW MOVING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH LATER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED BY
RSMC NADI.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 03F(invest 99P)

#4 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Dec 24, 2019 8:06 pm

WTPS11 NFFN 250000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 250041 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 08.2 SOUTH
176.0 EAST AT 250000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS/IR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
TD03F SLOW MOVING BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH LATER.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 20 AROUND THE CENTER.

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WESTERLY BURST PERSISTS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND
31 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A SOUTHWARDS TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOPN INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 250800UTC.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 03F(invest 99P)

#5 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:51 pm

WTPS21 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.1S 175.9E TO 12.7S 175.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.3S 175.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8S 176.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 176.4E, APPROXIMATELY 870
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242127Z METOP-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 99P
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260030Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 03F(invest 99P)

#6 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Dec 25, 2019 3:31 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 250758 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 08.8 SOUTH
174.9 EAST AT 250600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS/IR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
TD03F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
UP TO 25 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER.

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WESTERLY BURST PERSISTS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND
31 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2/0.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF
2.0. MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A SOUTHWARDS TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 251400UTC.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 03F(invest 04P)

#7 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:34 am

SH, 04, 2019122606, , BEST, 0, 132S, 1762E, 35, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 110, 95, 40, 1004, 240, 70, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shA92020 to sh042020,
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Re: SPAC: Sarai - Tropical Storm

#8 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:16 am

FKPS01 NFFN 261410
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20191226/1200Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: SARAI
ADVISORY NR: 2019/1
OBS PSN: 26/1200Z S1430 E17606
CB: WI 180NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL500
MOV: S 19KT
C: 995HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 26/1800 S1542 E17554
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 27/0000 S1636 E17600
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 27/0600 S1724 E17606
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 27/1200 S1800 E17624
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191226/1900Z
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Re: SPAC: SARAI - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:12 pm

WTPS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 178.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.9S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.8S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.7S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.9S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.3S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.6S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 178.5E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108
NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
BULK OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 281757Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE,
HEDGED BETWEEN A 281740Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS) AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (77 KTS) BY PGTW/KNES. TC 04P IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND DECENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT THE
NER, SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AMONG THE
MODELS, WHICH RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT TRACK VARIATIONS. THERE ARE
NOW TWO DISTINCT TRACKS DISPLAYED BY THE MODELS; ONE RECURVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 48 (GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, NAVGEM, AND
GALWEM), WHILE THE OTHER TRACKS TC 04P DUE EAST THROUGH TAU 72
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST (UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE). THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST NORTH AND SLOWER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS CURRENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SPAC: SARAI - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:14 pm

Image
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Re: SPAC: SARAI - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby Astromanía » Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:08 pm

two deaths confirmed by Sarai in Fiji
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