WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

10W MAYSAK 200830 1200 19.5N 128.9E WPAC 85 964

[euro6208]

Wow much better organized and following dvorak rules. If this was in another basin it would likely be stronger where recon always lead dvorak. Looks don't matter.

Sad.

[aspen]

85 kt seems very reasonable as of now. Once we can definitively point out an eye forming on IR imagery, Maysak will probably be worthy of 95-105 kt.

[aspen]

[NotoSans]

The environment looks favourable indeed but Maysak just fails to build a complete eyewall for rapid intensification. Don’t know what went wrong there.

[1900hurricane]

Think it was a little bit of dry air left over from the subsident region of the big TUTT cell. Not huge, but enough to disrupt the large developing core.

Anyway, here's my 12Z thoughts today regarding Maysak. I just started doing these agency style forecasts and I like them, but I wouldn't exactly call myself good at them yet. It's good practice though, and it's really helped me realize why agencies like NHC like consistency and don't go with larger track changes from forecast to forecast. My 12Z forecast yesterday was too far north, but then I overcorrected with my last 00Z forecast, which was too far south! I also bit way too hard with rapid intensification initially. Definitely a good low stakes learning experience.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1300096629391978498



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1300096631866626048



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1300105654477168641

[aspen]

I had a feeling there was some dry air gnawing at the eyewall, just like the EPac systems this year.

[Highteeld]

First signs of an eye coming through on IR. Probably good for 95 knots at 18z if this keeps up

[doomhaMwx]

Look at those several failed attempts to build a complete eyewall and a tight inner core in the last ~30hrs. The developing feature just collapses, but Maysak is determined and it makes an attempt again. Recent MW images look more promising though.

[Hayabusa]

2020AUG30 160000 3.8 977.8 61.0 3.8 4.3 5.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -36.82 -73.74 EYE 5 IR 12.1 20.66 -128.78 ARCHER HIM-8 27.7

[aspen]

For some reason, Maysak has constantly struggled wrapping deep convection around the east side of the center and forming a closed eye. All of the deepest convection is still on the west side.

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

Microwave presentation from 17z looks great, but in the hours since then, Maysak’s IR structure has not improved. What’s taking it so long?

[aspen]

19:33z microwave pass shows a small gap in the southern quadrant, but other than that, the eyewall has become stronger. I still don’t get why IR presentation is lagging behind.

[Meteophile]

 https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1300194060750204929

[aspen]

Is there still some dry air or shear left? I don’t get how a system with such a good environment and such great ventilation is struggling so much with the basic task of building and clearing an eye — and most of the eyewall is currently there.

Maysak is quickly running out of time. That eye needs to start clearing NOW if it ever wants to exceed 120 kt.

[doomhaMwx]

IR sat loops show it's definitely trying to clear an eye. Maybe quite a large one. I bet it will fully appear this daytime.

[Highteeld]

Getting its act together finally

[1900hurricane]

Not perfect, but not bad either. Maybe I'll finally get a 12 hr intensity forecast to verify finally.