ATL: ETA - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#121 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:35 pm

Fort Lauderdale...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#122 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:36 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Hmmm...

That is a large circulation in the Florida Straights...

https://i.imgur.com/9oB0OIg.gif

Any farther north near Central America and this will be a bigger problem than this model predicts
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#123 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:37 pm

cp79 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Hmmm...

That is a large circulation in the Florida Straights...

https://i.imgur.com/9oB0OIg.gif


Lol happy hour GFS. Not happening. Good laughs, though.


I don't know if I would go that far. Is it likely... at 228 hours probably not. Is it possible...yeah, actually it is with the players that are on the board.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#124 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:38 pm

cp79 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Hmmm...

That is a large circulation in the Florida Straights...

https://i.imgur.com/9oB0OIg.gif


Lol happy hour GFS. Not happening. Good laughs, though.


Northward movement starts inside of 180 hours, not totally unreasonable IMO.

But still, just one run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#125 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:40 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Hmmm...

That is a large circulation in the Florida Straights...

https://i.imgur.com/9oB0OIg.gif

Any farther north near Central America and this will be a bigger problem than this model predicts


Agreed... we definitely need to watch future runs to see if they start keeping it offshore of Central America. I think the impact to Central America in terms of rainfall is going to be significant no matter what. Landfall or not is not going to make much of a difference in that regard.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#126 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:42 pm

18z GFS is making sure South Florida doesn't get left out of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season!!! 8-)

YOU SPIN ME RIGHT ROUND BABY RIGHT ROUND... :band: +

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Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#127 Postby cp79 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:43 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
cp79 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Hmmm...

That is a large circulation in the Florida Straights...

https://i.imgur.com/9oB0OIg.gif


Lol happy hour GFS. Not happening. Good laughs, though.


I don't know if I would go that far. Is it likely... at 228 hours probably not. Is it possible...yeah, actually it is with the players that are on the board.


Too far out and the 18z GFS ALWAYS does wild things. I love their 18z mostly for laughs because they love to do crazy loops and wild navigations through the Gulf and Caribbean. I could see a scenario where it kicks back to the ENE. I think I said that elsewhere. But then to bend back west this time of year and go back into the Gulf? No lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#128 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:45 pm

18z GFS didn’t disappoint... 96L goes Cat 1/2 hurricane into SFL in @210 hours...
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#129 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:52 pm

cp79 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
cp79 wrote:
Lol happy hour GFS. Not happening. Good laughs, though.


I don't know if I would go that far. Is it likely... at 228 hours probably not. Is it possible...yeah, actually it is with the players that are on the board.


Too far out and the 18z GFS ALWAYS does wild things. I love their 18z mostly for laughs because they love to do crazy loops and wild navigations through the Gulf and Caribbean. I could see a scenario where it kicks back to the ENE. I think I said that elsewhere. But then to bend back west this time of year and go back into the Gulf? No lol


How about we look at the trend in the short term instead of past 180+ hours?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#130 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:53 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:18z GFS is making sure South Florida doesn't get left out of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season!!! 8-)

YOU SPIN ME RIGHT ROUND BABY RIGHT ROUND... :band: +


Appreciate the Dead or Alive 80s lyrics SFL! Yeah obviously way out to be taken seriously but there are signs in both the operational and ensemble models now that 96l won't bury itself into CA. Hurricane season not quite yet done for us Floridians.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#131 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:53 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
cp79 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
I don't know if I would go that far. Is it likely... at 228 hours probably not. Is it possible...yeah, actually it is with the players that are on the board.


Too far out and the 18z GFS ALWAYS does wild things. I love their 18z mostly for laughs because they love to do crazy loops and wild navigations through the Gulf and Caribbean. I could see a scenario where it kicks back to the ENE. I think I said that elsewhere. But then to bend back west this time of year and go back into the Gulf? No lol


How about we look at the trend in the short term instead of past 180+ hours?


Agreed... The trend to watch for in the short term is whether or not it makes landfall in Central America. That's the big thing to watch for over the next few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#132 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:00 pm

18z happy hour GFS living up to its name again tonight! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#133 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:02 pm

Say whattttttttt!

Lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#134 Postby tomatkins » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:04 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
cp79 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Hmmm...

That is a large circulation in the Florida Straights...

https://i.imgur.com/9oB0OIg.gif


Lol happy hour GFS. Not happening. Good laughs, though.


I don't know if I would go that far. Is it likely... at 228 hours probably not. Is it possible...yeah, actually it is with the players that are on the board.


Any particular path 9 days out is unlikely, particularly for a storm that hasnt even formed yet.

However, November can get some real funky tracks with troughs swinging through regularly with big highs behind them. See 1994's Hurricane Gordon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gordon_(1994)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#135 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:09 pm

18z HWRF has genesis occurring as early as 00z Sunday. Environment appears ripe for rapid intensification.
Last edited by supercane4867 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#136 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:09 pm

:Bcool:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#137 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:10 pm

Two words for the 18Z GFS “NOT HAPPENING” lol. :roll:

The “Giving Florida Storms” model is at it again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#138 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:21 pm

18z HWRF is running. It shows a moderate TS just south of Jamaica in ~42-48 hours, with a small max wind field/core.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#139 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:24 pm

Storm 2k: "S Florida is past due for a storm, it's bound to happen soon!"
*Model shows S. Fl getting hit*
Storm 2k: "Nope! Not gonna happen!
Lol :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#140 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:30 pm

18z GEFS
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