ATL: OMAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1218
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#21 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:16 pm

Recon coming in now.
0 likes   
Top
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#22 Postby xironman » Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:21 pm

Searching for an east wind...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 724
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#23 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:21 pm

Overall not looking all that impressive on Satellite. LLC is there but lacking any significant convection currently. Still needs more time to percolate I think. Maybe later tonight.
0 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
Top
User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1975
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:
Contact CyclonicFury

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#24 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:31 pm

I'm feeling confident recon will close off a circulation, but convection has waned a bit this afternoon. "Organized deep convection" is ambiguous and subjective, so I'm not entirely sure NHC will classify just yet even if they close off a circulation.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Top
wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1218
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#25 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:55 pm

Looks like they found a fairly defined circulation near 32.5N, 76.5W. Not any strong wind around. They will have to look to the East.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#26 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:03 pm

AL, 15, 2020083118, , BEST, 0, 322N, 769W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, TRANSITIONED, alD02020 to al152020,
5 likes   
Top
wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1218
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#27 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:08 pm

Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 15, 2020083118, , BEST, 0, 322N, 769W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, TRANSITIONED, alD02020 to al152020,

Dang! TD 15 in August...
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8057
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#28 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:11 pm

wx98 wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 15, 2020083118, , BEST, 0, 322N, 769W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, TRANSITIONED, alD02020 to al152020,

Dang! TD 15 in August...

But it’ll be just a little too late to become Nana in August. At the earliest, it’ll be upgraded to a TS at 00z September 1st.
3 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
ouragans
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 466
Age: 52
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
Contact:
Contact ouragans

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#29 Postby ouragans » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:16 pm

aspen wrote:
wx98 wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 15, 2020083118, , BEST, 0, 322N, 769W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, TRANSITIONED, alD02020 to al152020,

Dang! TD 15 in August...

But it’ll be just a little too late to become Nana in August. At the earliest, it’ll be upgraded to a TS at 00z September 1st.

Wait until the Hunter finishes its 2nd pass. It might find TS winds
2 likes   
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
Top
User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1475
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#30 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:20 pm

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status ... 5254133760

TD #15 coming as of 5 PM EDT
1 likes   
Top
BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1665
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#31 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:21 pm

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1300528105254133760


0 likes   
Top
User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:
Contact EquusStorm

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#32 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:23 pm

And we eke out the genesis of another August storm by literally just three hours UTC.
2 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Top
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4597
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#33 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:27 pm


Wow... This has got to be like the first td15 in August ever right?
It's crazy how this time last year we were tracking Dorian, the 5th storm of the season and here we are a year later tracking the 15th
4 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7287
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#34 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:28 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#35 Postby xironman » Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:58 pm

Sheared, but convection building back over the center, looking for the connection to the cold front though...

Image
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8057
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#36 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:39 pm

Since TD15 has up to two days over the Gulf Stream before shear really kicks in, I’m not ruling out the possibility of a sudden burst of intensification and organization like with Dolly in June. I still believe she got to 50-60 kt before quickly weakening.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#37 Postby plasticup » Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:35 pm

Still looking good well into the night. Excellent convective ball.
1 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7287
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#38 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:45 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
Do_For_Love
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 34
Joined: Sat May 09, 2015 7:47 am
Location: Delaware

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#39 Postby Do_For_Love » Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:51 pm

Seems like this area off of Atlantic coast near the Carolinas has been a real hotbed of activity this year...Arthur, Bertha, Fay all formed around there, and it's where Isaias strengthened.
0 likes   
Irene '11, Sandy '12, Fay '20, Isaias '20, Ida '21
Top
HurricaneFrances04
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 595
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#40 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:12 pm

Not too impressive tonight. Center looks like it might be completely exposed.
1 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests