ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

Looks like it is trying to get bundled. Hmmmm. This could get interesting.



Getting ventilated aloft



Lower level convergence is increasing



Shear looks pretty minimal



Low Level Vorticity has increased a bunch since yesterday (Today's at 11 AM EDT - Energy is Bundling)



Compare to yesterday's Low Level Vorticity as of 11 AM EDT

[mpic]

I am almost too ready for a hurricane this year. Shed full of porch furniture, freezer empty and only hurricane food in the house. Come on October.

[plasticup]

I am almost too ready for a hurricane this year. Shed full of porch furniture, freezer empty and only hurricane food in the house. Come on October.

Would be a big surprise if this one reached Texas!

[mpic]

I am almost too ready for a hurricane this year. Shed full of porch furniture, freezer empty and only hurricane food in the house. Come on October.

Would be a big surprise if this one reached Texas!

In 2020 nothing is a surprise! Lol

[us89]

NHC keeps development odds at 20/30 for the 8 pm update.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about midway between the Windward
Islands and west Africa is producing a small area of showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this
week as it drifts generally westward over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[MetroMike]

Everyone is so confused with these the paradoxical systems and models this season .
This one is no exception.

[Cpv17]

I am almost too ready for a hurricane this year. Shed full of porch furniture, freezer empty and only hurricane food in the house. Come on October.

Would be a big surprise if this one reached Texas!

In 2020 nothing is a surprise! Lol

Ehhh I kinda feel like hurricane season in Texas is over especially if that front comes next week.

[tropicwatch]

Yesterday the spaghetti models were initiating on the system by the Cabo Verde Islands that has a 70% chance of development. Today it is the area west of the Cabo Verde Islands that now has a 40% chance of development. What the hell happened?

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical
Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible early next week as
the larger tropical wave located off of the coast of Africa passes
to the north of the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

dont expect 91L to survive.

the two waves off africa have already begun to merge and is mich larger than 91L

and 91L has really begun to stretch out and is beginning to get absorbed.

we will probably only get 1 system out of this whole mess.

[cycloneye]

The 12z Best Track came our very late but here it is.

91L INVEST 200903 1200 12.3N 36.5W ATL 25 1008

[sma10]

dont expect 91L to survive.

the two waves off africa have already begun to merge and is mich larger than 91L

and 91L has really begun to stretch out and is beginning to get absorbed.

we will probably only get 1 system out of this whole mess.

I guess NHC believes the Africa wave will leapfrog 91L to the north and scoot around it, with the possibility that both systems develop. Between these 2 and the 3rd wave, the central atlantic is looking awfully crowded next week

[Aric Dunn]

dont expect 91L to survive.

the two waves off africa have already begun to merge and is mich larger than 91L

and 91L has really begun to stretch out and is beginning to get absorbed.

we will probably only get 1 system out of this whole mess.

I guess NHC believes the Africa wave will leapfrog 91L to the north and scoot around it, with the possibility that both systems develop. Between these 2 and the 3rd wave, the central atlantic is looking awfully crowded next week

They are just doing a blend from the models. it will change as the modesl change.

[Hurricaneman]

This feature is looking decent on satellite,I’m thinking it stays connected to the ITCZ until 50w and not follow the 20/60 prob wave out to sea. Based on that the Lesser Antilles need to watch this

[mpic]

Would be a big surprise if this one reached Texas!

In 2020 nothing is a surprise! Lol

Ehhh I kinda feel like hurricane season in Texas is over especially if that front comes next week.

Having been through September hurricanes and over 70 yrs. old, I'll opt for playing it safe. Dragging things out only to put them back up isn't looking inviting.

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro is the most probable evolution of this triple wave mess.

91L should get eaten. and the two other waves are already merging pretty quickly.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro is the most probable evolution of this triple wave mess.

91L should get eaten. and the two other waves are already merging pretty quickly.

Well if 91L gets eaten by the 20/70% area then why is there still no invest tag?

[TallyTracker]

I think this is the best way to look at the NHC percentages for the two systems: 70% the eastern wave develops. 40% chance the middle wave develops. 10% both waves develop.

In my opinion, the eastern wave will be come dominate and absorb 91L regardless of whether it manages to develop first.

[Aric Dunn]

I think this is the best way to look at the NHC percentages for the two systems: 70% the eastern wave develops. 40% chance the middle wave develops. 10% both waves develop.

In my opinion, the eastern wave will be come dominate and absorb 91L regardless of whether it manages to develop first.

the two waves near the cape verde islands will likely be completely merged sometime tomorrow.