ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Steve]

Hate to get OT, but real question for admins / can you mute people on here like FB unfollow & Twitter mute ???

Hey Wx. You can. It's pretty easy if you look into it. Tell Greg I said hello next time you talk to him (or I guess if he sees this). The post will come up "This poster is blocked, click here if you want to read their b.s." or something like that. Good to see you man.

[Steve]

^^

What you do is click on the member name and "Add foe" Haha. I used to hit state-casters with that all the time, but many of them ended up becoming quality posters.

[Steve]

WHRF at 51 hours landfalls back into Mexico +/- Estado de Tabasco. We'll have to wait to see if it continues to track that vorticity and what it does with it, but because it's a hurricane model, it may or may not be able to resolve a second coming or new low. Should know in about 20 minutes.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0200&fh=51

Alternatively, HMON through 66 hours does not landfall on the Northern Coast of Mexico, so there is a cat fight among the hurricane models to watch out for too. Who can hit the 2 1/2 days better. Does it landfall or not?

[Steve]

@ 78 hours, HWRF looks to be emerging a low back out into the Bay of Campeche (sort of breaks it up as the hours keep coming in). So we'll know how it performed vs. HMON in the 3 day period. Landfall, and HWRF got it right. No landfall, and HMON is on top. I'm ready to go to bed. I figure I have 6 nights ahead waking up at random times in the night to check models and lose sleep, but I'm going to try to stay up for the end of these runs and NAVGEM.

[Steve]

Oh well, HWRF follows a low center but it is confused. HMON on the other hand has something worth tracking at 120 hours (so Saturday night at 7:00pm CDT). It has a 979 @ 27.2N/93.7W maybe a bit farther west. Doesn't appear to be strengthening at this point, so Cat 2ish and still a day or so from landfall in TX or LA.

Edit - HMON ends at 126 hours and it appears to be moving WNW at that point and is already past the LA/TX Border. This looks like a SETX storm on the HMON.

Recap before bed:

GFS - Pecan Island
CMC - Pecan Island
HMON - SETX? (compared to the HWRF at 114 hours, is about 26.35N, 93.4W)*
HWRF - vorticity confusion but leaves off at about 23.8N 94.2W @ 114 hours*
ICON- Landfall around Galveston 1am Monday morning (looks to be the strongest of all these models)
NAVGEM - Tropical Tidbits currently has this skipped from hour 60 to hour 144. So there's no telling how it got there. But it has a 987mb system around Hattiesburg

* So I think the outcome of the HWRF vs. HMON models at 114 hours is that since the HWRF tracks the circulation back inland into Mexico, it ends up 2.5 degrees further south and .8 degrees further west.

Last note, both HMON and HWRF finished. HWRF at 126 hours is 25.7N / 94.8W @ 999mb vs. HMON which is at 27.65N / 94.35W @ 977mb.

See y'all tomorrow.

[TheProfessor]

Oh well, HWRF follows a low center but it is confused. HMON on the other hand has something worth tracking at 120 hours (so Saturday night at 7:00pm CDT). It has a 979 @ 27.2N/93.7W maybe a bit farther west. Doesn't appear to be strengthening at this point, so Cat 2ish and still a day or so from landfall in TX or LA.

Edit - HMON ends at 126 hours and it appears to be moving WNW at that point and is already past the LA/TX Border. This looks like a SETX storm on the HMON.

Recap before bed:

GFS - Pecan Island
CMC - Pecan Island
HMON - SETX? (compared to the HWRF at 114 hours, is about 26.35N, 93.4W)*
HWRF - vorticity confusion but leaves off at about 23.8N 94.2W @ 114 hours*
ICON- Landfall around Galveston 1am Monday morning (looks to be the strongest of all these models)
NAVGEM - Tropical Tidbits currently has this skipped from hour 60 to hour 144. So there's no telling how it got there. But it has a 987mb system around Hattiesburg

* So I think the outcome of the HWRF vs. HMON models at 114 hours is that since the HWRF tracks the circulation back inland into Mexico, it ends up 2.5 degrees further south and .8 degrees further west.

See y'all tomorrow.

HMON would likely have a landfall just to the south or near Galveston due to the more northward movement at the end of the run.

[TheProfessor]

Only 48 hours out and the Euro is already interesting. Turns the storm back to the east, quite the shift. Edit: And then it moves due west again at hour 72 lol.

[PTrackerLA]

00z Euro 72 hrs, still offshore..

[Steve]

00z Euro 72 hrs, still offshore..

https://i.imgur.com/DZ9VblA.png

We'll see what it does, but the moral of the story is that no one should be expecting any real changes (outside of possible landfalling vorts) until sometime Friday. Models say it's going to be a workweek spent watching this spin in the Bay of Campeche.

[PTrackerLA]

euro 96hrs, avoided going inland and now lifting out and strengthening

[Dylan]

Here we go, less land interaction that means a stronger Cristobal, similar to the risk many EPS members have hinted to. Hurricane becomes more likely if the Mexican terrain doesn’t disrupt the system.

[PTrackerLA]

120 hrs

[PTrackerLA]

Down to 979b at 120hrs

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like TX/LA border around midnight Sunday night @ 979mb. Good night gang, long week ahead.

[Steve]

Down to 979b at 120hrs

I’m still about to go to bed but can’t sleep yet. That’s ICON range in mb’s so Cat 2 Ish. Cut to the wnw between 120 and 144. Super low res 500mb at Tidbits has it heading to SETX at 144 in the 980 range - likely a 1 or 2 but caution is always that western gulf storms can overperform. Based on tonight’s model runs, look out around Sunday night/Monday morning if you live between Brownsville and New Orleans. Compromise is somewhere between Vermillion Bay and Port Lavaca. Now I’m crashing.

[Jr0d]

Usually when a depression forms, we can start narrowing down the projected path...not this time. It does look like Florida is out of the picture(for now) but everywhere else in the GoM is still fair game.

Not sure what model to put any faith in. The GFS cant make up its mind...tough to bet against the Euro though.

The most likely scenerio to me seems like a blend of the EURO and CMC....with the possibility of another low developing next week.

Hopefully with a trackable center we can more model agreement by this time tomorrow.

[TheProfessor]

The Euro actually does make landfall, it' moves just inland into the Mexican coast between Paraiso and Frontera.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1267718438576947201

[kevin]

The 'master' HRES member of the euro has a landfall at the Texas/Louisiana border at 150 hours with a pressure of 979 mbar and 145 km/h 3 hour gusts (90 mph). Btw the control run has a Houston landfall at 150 hours, 976 mbar and 150 km/h gusts. Peak at 126 hours, 970 mbar and 179 km/h gusts. I just quickly looked through the members and a few have a New Orleans landfall. Not many so far, but as far as I can see every member that has such a scenario does show a strong storm.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS, spread remains: