ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[GCANE]

Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.

Here's GFS

[Kingarabian]

Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.

Here's GFS

https://i.imgur.com/6zWf8Eh.png

CMC has progressively gotten better.

GFS continues with the two system solution. Loses it near CA, creates a new vort, and takes a messy system into middle LA.
However one thing has become clear from this GFS run. We're in for a long season with it.

[tolakram]

As others have pointed out the 1 hour plots show the center just coming on shore as it loops around prior to heading north.

Euro 0Z run

[kevin]

As others have pointed out the 1 hour plots show the center just coming on shore as it loops around prior to heading north.

Euro 0Z run
https://i.imgur.com/1AneOHF.gif

This is the furthest the system comes on shore, at +37 hours.

[NDG]

Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.

Here's GFS

https://i.imgur.com/6zWf8Eh.png

CMC has progressively gotten better.

GFS continues with the two system solution. Loses it near CA, creates a new vort, and takes a messy system into middle LA.
However one thing has become clear from this GFS run. We're in for a long season with it.

The crappy GFS little by little is trending towards dropping the two system solution during the past couple of runs.

[aspen]

The 06z HWRF keeps TD3 over land for almost 48 hours before it moves north, resulting in a much weaker and more disorganized system in the Gulf. This is somewhat similar to the GFS run, expect with one continuous system and not two. The Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON either show it just touching the coast or not making landfall in Mexico at all during its stall before being drawn up north.

[stormlover2013]

The 06z HWRF keeps TD3 over land for almost 48 hours before it moves north, resulting in a much weaker and more disorganized system in the Gulf. This is somewhat similar to the GFS run, expect with one continuous system and not two. The Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON either show it just touching the coast or not making landfall in Mexico at all during its stall before being drawn up north.

Prob cat 1 by landfall on that run

[aspen]

The 06z HWRF keeps TD3 over land for almost 48 hours before it moves north, resulting in a much weaker and more disorganized system in the Gulf. This is somewhat similar to the GFS run, expect with one continuous system and not two. The Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON either show it just touching the coast or not making landfall in Mexico at all during its stall before being drawn up north.

Prob cat 1 by landfall on that run

Both the GFS and HWRF have it in the 980 mbar range at landfall, so yeah, looks like a minor hurricane, or a strong TS at the very least. Possibly not out of the question based on how it’s improving so far today.

[NDG]

Even the Euro has been struggling with the system.
Forecasted point for 7 AM CDT this morning during the past 8 runs.

[Dean4Storms]

[quote="GCANE"]Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.

Here's GFS

No, not all global models, the UKMET and its ensembles are headed toward the FL Panhandle which is a head scratcher.

[Aric Dunn]

Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.

Here's GFS

No, not all global models, the UKMET and its ensembles are headed toward the FL Panhandle which is a head scratcher.

UKMEt looks like it initially gets caught up with the shear and has a lopsided system that is tugged NE then conditions improve but it is already to far east and north and gets caught by the first exiting trough.

[SoupBone]

Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.

Here's GFS

No, not all global models, the UKMET and its ensembles are headed toward the FL Panhandle which is a head scratcher.

UKMEt looks like it initially gets caught up with the shear and has a lopsided system that is tugged NE then conditions improve but it is already to far east and north and gets caught by the first exiting trough.

A man of a million questions, but what's the timing of that first trough moving out? It seems that this would also be a key player and something the models would latch onto.

[Aric Dunn]

UKMEt looks like it initially gets caught up with the shear and has a lopsided system that is tugged NE then conditions improve but it is already to far east and north and gets caught by the first exiting trough.

A man of a million questions, but what's the timing of that first trough moving out? It seems that this would also be a key player and something the models would latch onto.

Look at the models for the timing. that is what everything is based off right now.

[SoupBone]

Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.

[stormlover2013]

Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.

Gfs is lost and has been for the past week

[Nederlander]

Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.

Gfs is lost and has been for the past week

Yeah it also keeps burying TD3 all the way down to Guatemala with a second circulation forming on the Yucatán with the gyre effect that really no longer exists... The probs on this solution verifying are dying by the hour.

[SoupBone]

Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.

Gfs is lost and has been for the past week

Yeah it also keeps burying TD3 all the way down to Guatemala with a second circulation forming on the Yucatán with the gyre effect that really no longer exists... The probs on this solution verifying are dying by the hour.

True, but I still think the overall more eastern solutions aren't that far off, with a curve back toward the Texas coast.

[stormlover2013]

Bastardi has cat 2 nearing crystal beach upper tx coast

[mcheer23]

ICON model no longer takes a hard left turn. Makes landfall in Louisiana.

[stormlover2013]

ICON model no longer takes a hard left turn. Makes landfall in Louisiana.

Icon model, that’s prob worse than cmc with upper level pattern