ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Over the last 30+ years I have seen many of these cyclones turn Southwest into the mountains of Mexico and dissipate.

Of course. And I think that's why there is multiple potential. You have an overall spinning area which has had consolidation in the EPAC, on the Yucatan and the mainland and in the Bay. I haven't looked at anything since the 12z runs, but you would expect that storms will weaken and strengthen on land at different times of the day as is often the case in the summer anyway when you have any kind of monsoonal type trough (though I don't know if this one was true monsoon or not). Since it's not one major consolidated system and multiple centers are rotating around a broader area, if one spins up it could easily crash and burn or could also rotate around again or just become juice for the next system. Gotta go catch up on the 18z's.

[Dean4Storms]

The heaviest rainfall from the GFS 18z run was over the FL Panhandle upwards of 14 inches. The key to this storm and who it effects will be when the westward turn occurs, how far north the system has tracked and how far eastward it is in longitude. Many more model runs to come and much yet to be determined!

[Aric Dunn]

The heaviest rainfall from the GFS 18z run was over the FL Panhandle upwards of 14 inches. The key to this storm and who it effects will be when the westward turn occurs, how far north the system has tracked and how far eastward it is in longitude. Many more model runs to come and much yet to be determined!

Before any of that comes into play...

we have to get past if it goes inland into mexico or not..

[jasons2k]

"hard right turn"?

I think they mean after making a hard left turn at Vermillion Bay going West until around Galveston Bay and turning hard right.

Ah, ok, got it.

Pretty sure he meant a "left" turn as the high builds in...

[northjaxpro]

These early season gyres, especially in June, are often very difficult to forecast at times, even for our dynamical model guidance. We will be watching this system down there potentially for the next 4 days or so before we get a clearer picture on the details of the overall evolution and eventual track of the developing cyclone.

One thing is certain. There is a tremendous deep pool of rich tropical moisture, which will impact areas along the Gulf in the next week. Someone is potentially in for extreme rainfall, dependent on how this system evolves.

[SoupBone]

I think they mean after making a hard left turn at Vermillion Bay going West until around Galveston Bay and turning hard right.

Ah, ok, got it.

Pretty sure he meant a "left" turn as the high builds in...

Yeah I apologize. When I said right turn I meant from a bird's eye view. It's like a car driving west then takes a right (north) turn into East Texas in a previous model run. It rides the corner of the high.

[cycloneye]

Still TD at 00z Best Track:

Location: 19.6°N 91.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[gatorcane]

Follow the shear especially for these early system storms lifting north into the Gulf. Wouldn’t surprise me if this ends up more east in the Gulf before maybe turning more NW. Most of the rain and convection should be on the east side possibly well removed from the center.

[psyclone]

Follow the shear especially for these early system storms lifting north into the Gulf. Wouldn’t surprise me if this ends up more east in the Gulf before maybe turning more NW. Most of the rain and convection should be on the east side possibly well removed from the center.

These early season systems end up right of forecast about 2/3 of the time (If I'm recalling air force mets observations from years ago). If the current qpf estimates are remotely accurate that would imply a typical right loaded early season system with constant rightward center reformations and subsequent rightward bends in the track. Or maybe the current generous QPF estimates for the eastern gulf are dropped in favor of more westerly solutions. Significant rain and flood potential seems likely for someone..

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan video.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[1900hurricane]

I haven't had much time to really dig into much with 03L, but just cross-referencing with the 00Z TCVN and ICON (trusted track and intensity consensuses, respectively), don't think NHC is going to alter their forecast much at 03Z.

AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 0, 196N, 917W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 12, 195N, 925W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 24, 191N, 926W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 36, 188N, 926W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 48, 184N, 929W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 60, 179N, 931W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 72, 176N, 930W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 84, 176N, 929W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 96, 184N, 928W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 108, 192N, 923W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 120, 203N, 920W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, TVCN, 132, 239N, 917W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 0, 0N, 0W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 12, 0N, 0W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 24, 0N, 0W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 36, 0N, 0W, 31, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 48, 0N, 0W, 32, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 60, 0N, 0W, 34, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 72, 0N, 0W, 34, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 84, 0N, 0W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 96, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 108, 0N, 0W, 45, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 120, 0N, 0W, 50, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060200, 03, ICON, 132, 0N, 0W, 52, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Aric Dunn]

WE have rotating hot tower beginning its trip around the center.. probably going to see some good convection popping over the next few hours.

TS likely by morning and who knows by the evening. But conditions appear good for intensification with the possibility of strengthening beyond what most of the models indicate.

[Steve]

their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.

Which channel KATC or KLFY??? No matter what it looks like we will be getting a lot of rain and possible flooding, so going to Rockefeller Wednesday for some crabbing.

WS2K had a couple days advance discussion and therefore was on top of that scenario first. How you doing blin?

[tropicwatch]

I was surprised by one of our local meteorologists tonight when he said this system is not going to hit the panhandle and going to turn west. He is counting on a blocking high to our northeast to turn it west. He might be right but I think he stuck his neck out a little to calm people down in the panhandle after Hurricane Michael. I really think it is a little too early in the game to be making blanket statements.

[Tireman4]

Long way to go....many more model runs to watch...

[Steve]

The heaviest rainfall from the GFS 18z run was over the FL Panhandle upwards of 14 inches. The key to this storm and who it effects will be when the westward turn occurs, how far north the system has tracked and how far eastward it is in longitude. Many more model runs to come and much yet to be determined!

Maybe. Jason mentioned 1998 Frances a while back having flooded him in Houston. Frances was off the coast of Corpus Christi, so not very far north, and flooded the **** out of New Orleans as I also got stuck on a neutral ground for about 6 hours trying to wait out the flooding. To me, it's the size and structure that will matter. It doesn't appear that anything that does form is going to race off to to northeast. And if it doesn't get super strong (e.g. Cat 2 or 3), expect the majority of the rainfall to be in east side feeder moisture as you said. I don't envision one of those super sloppy storms where the center keeps reforming - at least not once it's established. So how does the inflow banding set up? Will it be majority South to North bands because if so, those are the ones that will flood people out. As you know from where you are on the coast, if the bands are just rotating through, you get those brief downpours and gusts then a break. But if they're oriented N-S, you know that anyone from Lafayette and possibly as eastward as Panama City or so could be under prolonged deluges if the system is spinning off the TX Coast. Obviously, it's all hypothetical. I don't expect much resolution until late Wednesday or Thursday. Will impulses/lows keep rotating around the "gyre"? Will one take over and break out of that breeding ground? Definitely much more to be determined like you said.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267631531545116672

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267631531545116672

yeah I mentioned this very thing in the model thread several hours ago..

it is very important..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Storm is still around 5-6 days away from landfall. One thing i can tell you, highly likely wherever the models say it's headed, likely not going there lol.

So many different things could happen, i think anything would be a guess. Depends alot on the trough coming into the NW, actually. I feel like that will be one of the biggest driving factors.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267631531545116672

I love the info, but there's always a .........

What effect would this have on the future track, more eastern, more western? If that trough parks itself over Louisiana, this would send more moisture that way.