BoB: AMPHAN - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

According to the latest modelling by IMD, storm surge heights of ≥ 5.5m (18ft) are expected in much of the coasts of the West Bengal. Note that this is based on IMD's forecast track, which is a bit more west than JTWC's.



For reference on how high that is

[CrazyC83]

According to the latest modelling by IMD, storm surge heights of ≥ 5.5m (18ft) are expected in much of the coasts of the West Bengal. Note that this is based on IMD's forecast track, which is a bit more west than JTWC's.

https://i.imgur.com/vAJxclh.png

For reference on how high that is

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/57/Tsunami_size_scale_26Dec2004.png/320px-Tsunami_size_scale_26Dec2004.png

That would be truly a catastrophic event if it took that track. A direct hit on Kolkata would also affect tens of millions of people.

[doomhaMwx]

[FireRat]

Fudge, I was afraid this would happen.

The only hope now would be that Amphan peaks quickly and loses steam before coming ashore on the 20th. Either an EWRC or some shear to come to the rescue, and with a little luck that the worst of the storm somehow misses the heavily populated parts. Unfortunately, things look very bad right now.

[CryHavoc]

https://i.imgur.com/T5l6h0K.gif

Would be at least a high end cat 4 if this were in the Atlantic, if not well into cat 5 status IMO.

[Nancy Smar]

01B AMPHAN 200518 0600 13.6N 86.4E IO 140 911

[Kingarabian]

01B AMPHAN 200518 0600 13.6N 86.4E IO 140 911

Cat.5

[Hayabusa]

It's now Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan

"The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm 'AMPHAN' (pronounced as UM-PUN) intensified into Super Cyclonic Storm at 1130 IST of today, the 18th May, 2020 (sic)," the India Meteorological Department or IMD tweeted this afternoon.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/cyclone ... s_Trending

[Hayabusa]

 https://twitter.com/Indiametdept/status/1262279365007536129

[doomhaMwx]

We had SCS Kyarr in the Arabian Sea last year, but this is the first SCS in the Bay of Bengal since the 1999 Odisha Cyclone. There were probably cyclones in between that also deserved to be upgraded to SCS though.

[TorSkk]

I wonder if this relatively high temperature of the eye is due to its size. I don't think Hagabis's eye reached WMG either even on the Himawari floater.

[al78]

There is some hope in that JTWC have it weakening down to a category 1 at landfall, which should significantly lessen the impacts.

[doomhaMwx]

Other than TC Gonu(2007), JTWC has never went more than 140kts for any NIO TC before.

[Kingarabian]

There is some hope in that JTWC have it weakening down to a category 1 at landfall, which should significantly lessen the impacts.

What's their basis though? All the main global models show cat.3 if not higher @ landfall.

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like an ERC soon.

[Crostorm]

[aspen]

It looks like Amphan will begin an EWRC, but will it finish before landfall? It could either finish soon and lead to another burst of intensification, or the combination of the EWRC and some shear could permanently cripple the core, weakening the whole storm significantly before landfall.

[TallyTracker]

It looks like Amphan will begin an EWRC, but will it finish before landfall? It could either finish soon and lead to another burst of intensification, or the combination of the EWRC and some shear could permanently cripple the core, weakening the whole storm significantly before landfall.

A reduction in intensity would be good, but unfortunately the water has already been set in motion. Even if Amphan weakened significantly prior to landfall, the surge is likely going to be devastating. Katrina comes to mind as a storm significantly weakening prior to landfall yet the surge was not greatly diminished. I hope that they can evacuate everyone out of the surge zones to prevent massive loss of life.

[aspen]

It looks like the EWRC is getting ready to begin, based on how the CDO looks on IR imagery. However, the eye continues to warm, so maybe the JTWC will bump it up to 145-150 kt for the 12z best track update.

[Nancy Smar]

01B AMPHAN 200518 1200 14.0N 86.3E IO 145 901