ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

I didn't see in the thread the mention that recon is tasked for today.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011644
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT MON 01 JUNE 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-006

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 02/1430Z A. 02/2330Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 02/1200Z C. 02/2045Z
D. 20.0N 92.5W D. 19.5N 93.5W
E. 02/1400Z TO 02/1830Z E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 03/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0303A CYCLONE
C. 03/0845Z
D. 19.0N 93.8W
E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

[GCANE]

ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.

[tolakram]

SLIDER IR
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=3804.79443359375&y=6952.822265625

[BYG Jacob]

ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.

https://i.imgur.com/dhysRFv.png

Getting flashback to Michaels set up

[Aric Dunn]

Wrapping up very quickly now. Radar showing a nice solid curved band that has developed.

[Nimbus]

Looking more consolidated this morning, banding rain into Florida.
Track should shift back east a little possibly closer to Mississippi with the runs later today.

[Aric Dunn]

It has moved roughly 100 miles in the las 24hours.. models yesterday had this completing its first loop by today.. not even close..

[Aric Dunn]

ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.

https://i.imgur.com/dhysRFv.png

Most of the models are showing that the upper ridging will be just to its east.. so if this does end up being slower so that the trough gets further down then this will go a little farther east and hit a really good environment while it moves to the NE. a lot of "IFs" of ocurse.

[BYG Jacob]

Hot towers popping up near the center

[Aric Dunn]

The upper high has been steadily shifting north since yesterday midday. shear is dropping

[SoupBone]

ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.

https://i.imgur.com/dhysRFv.png

Most of the models are showing that the upper ridging will be just to its east.. so if this does end up being slower so that the trough gets further down then this will go a little farther east and hit a really good environment while it moves to the NE. a lot of "IFs" of ocurse.

How much further east though? The GFS still has it bumping the high the skirting into LaTex.

[Aric Dunn]

ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.

https://i.imgur.com/dhysRFv.png

Most of the models are showing that the upper ridging will be just to its east.. so if this does end up being slower so that the trough gets further down then this will go a little farther east and hit a really good environment while it moves to the NE. a lot of "IFs" of ocurse.

How much further east though? The GFS still has it bumping the high the skirting into LaTex.

It was just a hypithetical scenario.. hence why I said there are a lot of IFs


but if it meandered long enough and the trough swung down then FLorida panhandle is possible.

[GCANE]

Firing in 3000 CAPE air.
Pressure dropping.
UL vort dimishing.

Looks like its ramping up.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at that naughty little guy starting to wrap convection around the center..

this ladies and jelly bellies is almost certainly a TS>

[Nederlander]

Looking more consolidated this morning, banding rain into Florida.
Track should shift back east a little possibly closer to Mississippi with the runs later today.

What would cause that in your opinion? High plains trough won’t be arriving to pick it up until late Tuesday night, two days after projected landfall.

[Ivanhater]

I wonder if this will be one of those cases where the convection to the northeast keeps pulling on the center

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder if this will be one of those cases where the convection to the northeast keeps pulling on the center

That is very likely what has already been happening and why it has been so slow. it is more than 12 hours slower than the yesterdays model runs that had it diving into mexico.
that scenario is looking less likely now.

[GCANE]

Couple of hot towers just off the CoC.
One to the east of the CoC, rapidly moving north.
Its ramping

[galvestontx]

Looking more consolidated this morning, banding rain into Florida.
Track should shift back east a little possibly closer to Mississippi with the runs later today.

What would cause that in your opinion? High plains trough won’t be arriving to pick it up until late Tuesday night, two days after projected landfall.

he is wishcasting.

[GCANE]

Rapid scan on Rammb Slider, Sector: Mesoscale 1