EPAC: SIX-E - Remnants

[TheStormExpert]

This may not even get named in my opinion. If you want to see long-tracking hurricanes the Atlantic is your only hope at this point it seems.

[Yellow Evan]

This may not even get named in my opinion. If you want to see long-tracking hurricanes the Atlantic is your only hope at this point it seems.

The Atlantic will go absolutely insane but not for another month most likely.

[Kingarabian]

Now a tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SIX EP062020 07/14/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 37 37 37 34 34 35 36 37 38 40 41 44
V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 37 37 37 34 34 35 36 37 38 40 41 44
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 37 35 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 12 8 6 7 7 6 10 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 1 0 3 -1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 20 10 345 324 303 296 269 252 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.5 28.9 28.3 27.3 27.1 26.7 25.1 25.0 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 149 138 136 133 117 116 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 71 70 71 66 66 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -17 -15 -16 -18 -18 -10 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 11 6 12 19 39 36 14 19 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 1 7 9 5 9 15 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 771 858 967 1052 1136 1377 1684 1976 2205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 113.7 115.3 116.9 118.2 119.5 122.7 126.5 130.1 134.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 12 14 17 18 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 15 17 11 6 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 113.7

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 4.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 22.0% 14.9% 13.7% 0.0% 17.5% 17.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.3% 8.5% 5.6% 4.7% 0.0% 6.0% 5.7% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[aspen]

The little guy did it. It actually became a named storm despite basically every model giving up on it some time ago.

[Yellow Evan]

13/2330 UTC 16.7N 113.2W T2.5/2.5 06E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

I was going to say this has a decent 36 hour window to deepen (biggest hindrance factor is how fast it is moving) but its satellite presentation is declining already though it could be diurnal.

[cycloneye]

Stays as TD.

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Deep convection associated with the depression has decreased
substantially since the last advisory, particularly during the last
3 hours. At 00Z, microwave, visible, and IR imagery showed the
depression had a small but well-defined center with a small area of
deep convection west of its center. Most satellite-based intensity
estimates at that time were 35 kt, which would typically support
naming the system as a tropical storm. Since that time, however, it
appears that nearly all of the deep convection has dissipated and it
is likely that the intensity estimates would be lower if they were
valid now. The initial intensity is therefore conservatively held at
30 kt for this advisory, but it is certainly possible that the
system is producing tropical-storm-force winds.

The NHC forecast is largely unchanged. The cyclone is forecast to
move generally westward for the next day or two, steered by a
mid-level ridge to the north and low-level easterly flow. Some
slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but
significant strengthening is not expected. An increase of
southwesterly shear and cool SSTs should cause the cyclone to become
a remnant low and then dissipate within about 3 days. The track and
intensity guidance is all in good agreement and confidence in the
NHC forecast is fairly high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 17.0N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[StruThiO]

unless im really dumb it looks to me like this thing just got sheared apart?

[Yellow Evan]

unless im really dumb it looks to me like this thing just got sheared apart?

'

The already sheared convection decreased markedly but the center isn't full exposed then nor now.

[DioBrando]

unless im really dumb it looks to me like this thing just got sheared apart?

sheared?
that's an understatement imo

[Kingarabian]

I swear I saw it on Tropicaltidbits.com as tropical storm six.

[StruThiO]

I swear I saw it on Tropicaltidbits.com as tropical storm six.

Yeah, they must have reconsidered.

[AnnularCane]

unless im really dumb it looks to me like this thing just got sheared apart?

sheared?
that's an understatement imo

Long time no see.

I'm rooting for this little guy to get named at least, what with the struggle he went through just to become a TD. Although just being named still doesn't seem like enough.

[DioBrando]

unless im really dumb it looks to me like this thing just got sheared apart?

sheared?
that's an understatement imo

Long time no see.

I'm rooting for this little guy to get named at least, what with the struggle he went through just to become a TD. Although just being named still doesn't seem like enough.

Thank you! I had some personal things I had to deal with.
Hmm... I agree with you too! Come on, just give Six a name!!

[storminabox]

This may not even get named in my opinion. If you want to see long-tracking hurricanes the Atlantic is your only hope at this point it seems.

I feel bad for the EPAC this year. Hopefully sometime soon we get another active EPAC year, because those are the best. Lots of fishes and just great storms to admire. 2018 was great!

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SIX EP062020 07/14/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 29 30 31 31 32 34 34 37 39 42
V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 29 30 31 31 32 34 34 37 39 42
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 5 6 8 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 0 2 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 12 356 334 322 312 276 265 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.4 28.9 27.9 27.1 27.0 26.1 26.1 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 145 137 137 127 126 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 69 67 69 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -14 -18 -22 -14 -4 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -2 -2 8 37 42 24 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 4 6 4 5 14 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 792 880 983 1087 1206 1567 1855 2068 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 16.4 15.8 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.8 117.2 118.9 120.6 124.4 127.5 130.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 17 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 13 16 9 5 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 9. 12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 114.4

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 5.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 4.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.88 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.8% 17.3% 12.1% 0.0% 15.8% 15.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.1% 6.2% 5.9% 4.1% 0.0% 5.3% 5.3% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Satellite images show that the center of the tropical depression is
exposed well to the east-northeast of its decaying mid-level
circulation and any scant remaining convection. A pair of recent
scatterometer passes indicate that the current wind speed is not
more than 25 kt, so that value is used for this advisory. While
the system still has a day or so of marginally conducive
environmental conditions, the current displacement of the low- and
mid-level centers suggests that the depression is unlikely to
strengthen. Thus, little change in intensity is forecast through
today, and some weakening is likely on Wednesday and Thursday as the
cyclone encounters cooler water and higher shear. The timing of
remnant low status has been moved to Wednesday since the small,
poorly organized depression is expected to fall apart quickly in a
more hostile environment.

The cyclone continues moving westward and is forecast to move a
little faster in that general direction by late today due to the
effects of a strong ridge. The most significant change to the
forecast is that almost all of the guidance is north of the previous
model cycle, so the NHC track prediction is shifted in that
direction. None of the models show a closed low after 48 hours, so
dissipation is shown after that time, which makes sense given the
expected fragility of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.5N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.2N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 17.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[aspen]

This may not even get named in my opinion. If you want to see long-tracking hurricanes the Atlantic is your only hope at this point it seems.

I feel bad for the EPAC this year. Hopefully sometime soon we get another active EPAC year, because those are the best. Lots of fishes and just great storms to admire. 2018 was great!

2018 spoiled all of us. Coming off of a year with TEN Cat 4+ hurricanes and 317 ACE, 2019 was incredibly underwhelming despite being decently active, and 2020 is obviously not going to satisfy our hopes for another memorably active season. The WPac probably won’t either at this rate. It’ll be the Atlantic picking up all the slack of the other NH basins.

[al78]

This may not even get named in my opinion. If you want to see long-tracking hurricanes the Atlantic is your only hope at this point it seems.

I feel bad for the EPAC this year. Hopefully sometime soon we get another active EPAC year, because those are the best. Lots of fishes and just great storms to admire. 2018 was great!

2018 spoiled all of us. Coming off of a year with TEN Cat 4+ hurricanes and 317 ACE, 2019 was incredibly underwhelming despite being decently active, and 2020 is obviously not going to satisfy our hopes for another memorably active season. The WPac probably won’t either at this rate. It’ll be the Atlantic picking up all the slack of the other NH basins.

2010 revisited.