ATL: LAURA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 87.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 87.6 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico today. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the
Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and
move inland near those area on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations:

Western Cuba...Additional totals of 1 inch or less.

United States...From Wednesday night into Saturday, Laura is
expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf
Coast from western Louisiana into east Texas, and northward into
portions of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio
Valley, and Tennessee Valley. This rainfall will cause widespread
flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and
minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread
northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and
the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and
reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and Southwest
Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those
areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern
Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and
northward into much of Arkansas. Over the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and
Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with
isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night over Louisiana, southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread
northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and
the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and
reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Satellite imagery shows some changes in the convective pattern of
Laura since the last advisory. The ragged central dense overcast
seen earlier has been replaced by a curved convective band that
wraps almost all the way around a cloud-filled banding-type eve. One
possible reason for this change is that the imagery also suggests a
tongue of dry air is trying to entrain into the cyclone just west of
the central convection. Aircraft data received after the last
advisory did not show any fall in the central pressure, but did have
high enough flight-level and SFMR winds to justify nudging the
initial intensity up to 70 kt.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/15 kt. There is
no change in the forecast philosophy since the last advisory. The
hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge
over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break
in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and
the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic
pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward this evening, followed
by a turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by
Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane
making landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper
Texas coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new
forecast track has a slight eastward nudge during the first 12-24 h,
but the landfall position is almost unchanged from that of the
previous forecast. It should the be noted that the current forecast
track lies to the east of the ECMWF and UKMET models, so it is still
possible that the forecast track could nudge westward in later
advisories. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into the
westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and the
mid-Atlantic States before reaching the Atlantic in about 120 h.

All indications are that the hurricane should steadily to rapidly
intensify during the next 24 h, with the only negative factor being
the possibility of more dry air entrainment. The intensity forecast
will go with the scenario that the dry air will not significantly
hinder strengthening. The global models are in good agreement that
Laura will encounter increasing southwesterly shear in the last 6-12
h before landfall, so the intensity forecast shows slower
strengthening during that time. With all that said, the landfall
intensity of 100 kt is unchanged from the previous advisory. After
landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h point, followed by
re-intensification through baroclinic energy as the cyclone becomes
extratropical.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h
is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and
dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San
Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including
areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This
surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.
Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion
this evening, as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning
area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana,
and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur
somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread
damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with
small streams overflowing their banks will increase due to heavy
rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas,
across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also result in minor to
isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will
spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 24.7N 88.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...ON COAST
48H 27/1800Z 32.2N 93.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0600Z 34.7N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 38.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 89.0W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.0
North, longitude 89.0 West. Laura is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should
continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move across the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should
approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday
night and move inland near those areas late Wednesday night or
Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the
next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at
landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern
Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and
northward into much of Arkansas. Over the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and
Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with
isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night over Louisiana, southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico overnight and on
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 89.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 89.5 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion should continue overnight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast on Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas
and southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday evening and move inland
near those areas Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at
landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph
(86 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-14 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected
to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from
central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and
southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This
rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along
small streams.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and
southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should
continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western
Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico overnight and on
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Laura's cloud pattern is becoming better organized on satellite
images, with a banding feature over the eastern portion of the
circulation and an expanding central dense overcast with cloud tops
of -80C or colder. The upper-level outflow is becoming better
established over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have increased to
near 80 kt, and the central pressure is falling. The hurricane is
expected to remain over SSTs near 30 deg C until it nears the coast,
with only moderate vertical shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification
Index shows a significant probability for a 25-30 kt increase in
strength during the next 24 hours, and this is reflected in the
official forecast. This is also between the simple and corrected
intensity model consensus predictions. Laura will weaken rapidly
after landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds well
inland over extreme western Louisiana and eastern Texas.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show a continued west-northwestward
track with an initial motion estimate near 300/15 kt. The track
forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should gradually
turn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as it
moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high and into a
weakness into the subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period
the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move with
increasing forward speed while embedded within the westerlies. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
also very close to the simple and corrected consensus track model
predictions.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h
is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and
dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San
Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including
areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.
Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion,
as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning
area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana,
and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur
somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread
damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin Wednesday night into Thursday across
far eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to
minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 25.2N 89.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 26.5N 91.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 28.7N 93.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/1200Z 36.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 90.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.72 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Freeport to San Luis
Pass Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 90.7 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general
motion should continue today, and a north-northwestward motion is
forecast tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the
Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on this evening and move
inland near those areas tonight or Thursday morning.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane today, and is expected to be a major
hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura
makes landfall.

Laura is becoming a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from
central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and
southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This
rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along
small streams.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Satellite images indicate that Laura has become a formidable
hurricane since yesterday evening. Deep convection has intensified
and become more symmetric, with an eye now trying to clear out. An
earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found flight-level winds
of 104 kt, along with peak SFMR values of 86 kt, which supported the
90-kt intensity on the intermediate advisory. Since that time,
however, the cloud pattern has only continued to improve, so the
initial wind speed is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Notably, the
aircraft also recorded that the extent of the hurricane-force winds
have increased substantially northeast of the center. A pair of
Hurricane Hunter planes should be in the area within a couple of
hours.

The hurricane has intensified a remarkable 40 kt during the past 24
hours, and there are no signs it will stop soon, with shear
remaining low-to-moderate over the deep warm waters of the central
Gulf of Mexico. Guidance is noticeably higher than before, so the
new peak intensity will be raised to 115 kt, and some models are
even a little higher. Increasing shear is expected to slightly
weaken the hurricane close to landfall, so the new forecast keeps
the previous 105-kt intensity near the coast. Laura will
weaken rapidly after landfall, but it will likely bring
hurricane-force winds well inland over western Louisiana and
eastern Texas. In the extended range, there is some chance that
Laura re-intensifies as a tropical cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic
coast, instead of becoming part of a frontal system, but for now
the forecast will stay extratropical at 96 hours and beyond.

Recent satellite shows that Laura has turned northwestward, now
estimated at 13 kt. There are no substantial changes to the track
forecast to report. The hurricane should gradually turn toward the
northwest and north over the next day or two as it moves around the
western periphery of a mid-level high. The models are in very good
agreement on the center of Laura moving into extreme southwestern
Louisiana or southeastern Texas in about 24 hours, so no changes
were made to the previous NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period
the weakened cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move
with increasing forward speed while embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The official track forecast is shifted southward at
longer range, not too far from the latest consensus track model
predictions.

It should be mentioned Laura is now a large hurricane, and wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
Do not use the cone graphic for any representation of these hazards,
it is just for the center uncertainty.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves is
expected to produce potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas
inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surge
could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline
in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. Actions to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion as water levels
will begin to rise later today.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in the warning area
from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and
the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur
somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread
damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far
eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead
to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy
rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential
will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 26.1N 90.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 27.4N 92.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 27/1800Z 32.4N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/1800Z 36.4N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0600Z 37.3N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0600Z 38.0N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 91.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.4 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion
should continue today, followed by a north-northwestward motion
tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the Upper
Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland
near those areas tonight or Thursday morning.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a dangerous category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and is forecast to continue
strengthening into a category 4 hurricane later today. Rapid
weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Laura is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Buoy 42395, located
just east of Laura's eye, recently reported a sustained wind of 74
mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h) and a wave
height of 37 feet (11 meters).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center later today. All
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from
central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and
southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This
rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along
small streams.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the north-northwestward and north is expected later today and
tonight. On the forecast track, Laura will approach the Upper
Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland
within that area tonight. The center of Laura is forecast to move
over northwestern Louisiana tomorrow, across Arkansas Thursday
night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph
(205 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening
in expected and Laura is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane
this afternoon. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center later today. All
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This storm
surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall makes landfall tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning
area late today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban
flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and
minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura will produce rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
mid-Mississippi and portions of the Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee
Valleys. This rainfall may lead to localized flash and urban
flooding and rapid rises on small streams.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the entire U.S. Gulf
coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern
Mexico These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Laura has become a very powerful hurricane this morning. The
satellite presentation has continued to improve with the eye
becoming better defined, and cloud tops colder than -70C in the
surrounding ring of deep convection. Both NOAA and Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft have provided valuable data this morning.
The NOAA P-3 aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 125 kt at
8000 ft, and a peak SFMR wind of 104 kt, while the Air Force crew
has observed peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 121 kt and peak SFMR
winds of 104 kt. The lastest minimum pressure estimated from
aircraft data is 956 mb, indicating a pressure drop of 27 mb over
the past 12 hours. Based on the aircraft data, the initial wind
speed was increased to 100 kt on the 1200 UTC intermediate advisory,
and is now set at 110 kt based on the latest flight-level and SFMR
winds.

Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over
warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical
wind shear remains low. Laura's intensity could level-off by this
evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle
and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall.
Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to be
an extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast. After landfall, rapid weakening will
occur, but Laura will bring a swath of damaging winds well inland
over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. The UKMET and ECMWF models
suggest that there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a
tropical cyclone off the mid-Atlantic coast, but given the
uncertainties at that time range the forecast continues to show it
as a post-tropical cyclone at days 4 and 5.

Laura is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A gradual turn toward
the north-northwest and north are expected within the next 12-18
hours as the hurricane moves around the western portion of a mid-
level ridge that extends from the western Atlantic into the
southeastern United States. This motion will bring the center of
Laura onshore in southwestern Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas
tonight. By Thursday night, Laura is forecast to turn northeastward,
and then east-northeastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical track models are in good
agreement, and little adjustment to the previous NHC forecast track
was required.

Laura is a large hurricane and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline. Only a few hours remain to protect life and property and
all actions should be rushed to completion.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan
City, Louisiana, with catastrophic wind damage expected where
Lauras eyewall makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds and widespread
damaging wind gusts will spread well inland across portions of
eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far
eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead
to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy
rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential
will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 27.0N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.5N 93.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 35.8N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 37.6N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z 48.0N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LAURA HAS BECOME AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight.
On the forecast track, Laura will approach the Upper Texas and
southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland within
that area tonight. The center of Laura is forecast to move over
northwestern Louisiana tomorrow, across Arkansas Thursday night, and
over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220
km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible this afternoon, and Laura is
forecast to remain a category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes over land.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Tropical-storm-force winds have reached the coast
of Louisiana and an observing site at Eugene Island recently
measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph
(104 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 952 mb (28.11 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This storm
surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall makes landfall tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are moving onshore of the coast of Louisiana within the
tropical storm warning area and are expected to reach the coast in
the hurricane warning area later this afternoon or evening.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban
flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and
minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura will produce rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
mid-Mississippi and portions of the Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee
Valleys. This rainfall may lead to localized flash and urban
flooding and rapid rises on small streams.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the entire U.S. Gulf
coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern
Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 200 PM CDT. These
can be found under WMO header WTNT63 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCUAT3.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...

Water levels are beginning to rise along the coast of Louisiana. A
National Ocean Service water level station at Eugene Island,
Louisiana, recently reported about 3.2 feet of inundation above
ground level.

The Eugene Island NOS station also recently measured sustained winds
of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brennan

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
300 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...300 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST THIS EVENING...
...WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA...

Water levels are beginning to rise along the coast of Texas. A
National Ocean Service water level station at Sabine Pass, Texas,
recently reported about 2.3 feet of inundation above ground level.

The Eugene Island, Louisiana, NOS station recently measured
sustained winds of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 92.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brennan

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...WIND AND WATER LEVELS INCREASING AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE LAURA TAKES AIM AT THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and Lake Borgne.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 92.8 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected tonight, and a northward
motion should continue on Thursday. A northeastward to east-
northeastward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, Laura will approach the Upper Texas and southwest
Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland within that area
tonight. The center of Laura is forecast to move over northwestern
Louisiana tomorrow, across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the
mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230
km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible this evening before Laura
reaches the northwest Gulf coast overnight. Rapid weakening is
expected after Laura moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within
the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread
northwestward within the warning areas this evening.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce the following rainfall totals:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.

Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.

Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected late this afternoon
through tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and
southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes will continue
into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued between Public
advisories. These can be found under WMO header WTNT63 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCUAT3.


$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Laura has continued to rapidly strengthen today with recent
visible satellite imagery revealing a very distinct 25 nautical-
mile-wide eye embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast. The
upper-level outflow has also become well established in all
quadrants. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that
is still investigating the hurricane has reported peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 136 kt and SFMR winds of 121 kt in the
northeast eyewall. These data support an initial intensity of
125 kt, which is an increase of 55 kt over the past 24 hours. The
minimum pressure has fallen to around 947 mb. The well-defined eye
is now within range of the NWS Lake Charles WSR-88D radar, and
hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates began at 1900 UTC (2 PM CDT) and
will continue through landfall and beyond overnight.

Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the
northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear
around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall
replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this
evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. Although rapid
weakening is expected on Thursday as Laura moves inland, the
hurricane is expected to bring a swath of damaging winds well inland
over western Louisiana and extreme eastern Texas. The cyclone or
its remnants are forecast to move off Mid-Atlantic coast over the
weekend and there remains some possibility that Laura will
re-intensify as a tropical cyclone offshore of the United States
east before it merges with a frontal boundary later in the forecast
period.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Laura is moving
northwestward at about 13 kt. Laura is nearing the western extent
of a mid-level ridge that is located over the southeastern United
States. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward this evening
and northward on Thursday between the ridge and a weak trough over
the south-central United States. By Friday the cyclone should turn
northeastward and then east-northeastward as it becomes embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance continues to
be in good agreement through 72, but there are some forward speed
differences thereafter. The new NHC track is very close to the
previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Laura is a large hurricane and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and
widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions
of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far
eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to
minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 27.9N 92.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/0600Z 37.3N 85.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 38.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 43.2N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z 51.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Low tide occurred along the northwestern Gulf coast within the past
hour, and water levels are expected to rise quickly through the
evening and overnight due to storm surge and the tide.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
600 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...600 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND STEADY HEAVY RAINS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...

Sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) were recently reported at
Caillou Lake, Louisiana, and at Cypremort Point on Vermilion Bay,
Louisiana.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 92.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 262342
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...WINDS INCREASING AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA TAKES AIM
AT THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 92.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 92.9 West. Laura is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, and a northward motion should continue
on Thursday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is
expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura
will approach the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this
evening and move inland within that area tonight. The center of
Laura is forecast to move over northwestern Louisiana tomorrow,
across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley
on Friday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Laura is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible tonight before Laura reaches
the northwest Gulf coast overnight. Rapid weakening is expected
after Laura moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently
reported at Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on Vermilion Bay.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within
the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread
northwestward within the warning areas this evening.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: From this evening through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce the following rainfall totals:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.

Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.

Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected this evening through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes will continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...800 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...POSSIBLE TORNADOES OCCURRING IN LAURA'S OUTER BANDS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
900 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...900 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at
Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on Vermilion Bay.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 93.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 93.2 West. Laura is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected by early Thursday, and a northward
motion should continue through the day. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On
the forecast track, Laura will make landfall along the southwest
Louisiana coast within the next few hours and move inland within
that area early Thursday. The center of Laura is forecast to move
over northwestern Louisiana on Thursday, across Arkansas Thursday
night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is likely before landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 49
mph (80 km/h) were recently reported by a National Ocean Service
station at Texas Point, Texas, at Sabine Pass. A wind gust to 58
mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at Cameron, Louisiana.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter observations is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday morning, with catastrophic wind damage
expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Tropical storm
conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within
the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread northward
within the warning areas overnight.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.

Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.

Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected tonight over Louisiana,
far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for
tornadoes will continue on Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and
western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Extremely dangerous Laura has the signature of a classic hurricane
on satellite images, with a well-defined eye surrounded by very
deep convection. There is little evidence of shear, and the
upper-level outflow pattern is extremely well defined, while the
cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C.
Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that Laura continued to strengthen during the
evening. Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed
surface winds, the intensity estimate is 130 kt for this advisory.
Since there is now little time remaining for the system over water,
no significant change in intensity is anticipated until the center
crosses the coastline. Laura will weaken rapidly after it begins
to move over land, but destructive winds should spread well inland,
more than 100 miles, along its path. Later in the forecast period,
the ECMWF and U.K. Met. Office global models indicate some
baroclinic re-intensification as the remnants of Laura move off the
U.S. East coast, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Laura has begun to turn northward as it moves around the western
side of a subtropical high pressure area, and the initial motion is
about 340/13 kt. The track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous advisories. The cyclone should move through a
weakness in the ridge and turn to the northeast over the next day
or two. Then the system should accelerate toward the
east-northeast while embedded in the westerlies. The official
track forecast remains close to both the simple and the corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA.

Laura is a large hurricane, and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and
widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions
of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday from
far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead
to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.0N 93.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 33.8N 92.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1200Z 35.6N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0000Z 36.8N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/1200Z 37.5N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z 45.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 52.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF LAURA MOVING OVER CAMERON PARISH...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURING IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

The eyewall of Laura is moving onshore over southwestern Louisiana.
TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a
reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or
other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows
to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.

A Weatherflow site in Cameron recently reported a sustained
wind of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 110 mph (177 km/h).

A HurrNet Station in Cameron recently reported a sustained wind of
74 mph (119 km/h) with a gust to 93 mph (150 km/h).

A National Ocean Service site at Calcasieu Pass reported a wind
gust of 89 mph (132 km/h) within the last hour.

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 93.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LAURA MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from High Island westward to San Luis Pass,
Texas has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning southwest of San Luis Pass has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to High Island Texas
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), Doppler radar images indicate that the eye
of Hurricane Laura has made landfall at the coast near Cameron,
Louisiana, near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 93.3 West. Laura is
moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
should continue through the day. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the
forecast track, Laura will move inland across southwestern Louisiana
this morning, and then continue northward across the state through
this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move over
Arkansas tonight, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and
the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday.

Air Force reconnaissance and Doppler radar data indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast as Laura moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A Weatherflow site in Cameron recently reported a
sustained wind of 101 mph (163 km/h) with a gust to 116 mph (187
km/h). A National Ocean Service site at Calcasieu Pass reported a
sustained wind of 93 mph (150 km/h) and a wind gust of 127 mph (204
km/h) within the last hour. A wind gust of 104 mph (167 km/h) was
recently reported at Lake Charles, Louisiana.

The minimum central pressure estimated the from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake...6-9 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
High Island to Sea Rim State Park...3-6 ft
Freeport to High Island including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area through the morning, with catastrophic wind damage
expected near Laura's eyewall. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning areas through the day.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana this morning.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.

Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.

Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected overnight over Louisiana,
far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for
tornadoes will continue through the day across Louisiana, Arkansas,
and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake/Zelinsky

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...LAURA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 93.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning west of High Island, Texas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Watch from east of Intracoastal City to west of
Morgan City Louisiana has been canceled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.4 West. Laura is moving
toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion should
continue through the day. A northeastward to east-northeastward
motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura
will move across southwestern Louisiana this morning, and then
continue northward across the state through this afternoon. The
center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the
mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Laura is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Laura is
expected to become a tropical storm later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). An observation in Chennault, Louisiana, recently
reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust of 93
mph (150 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
An unofficial observation of 948 mb (28.00 inches) was recently
measured in the eye of Laura.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake...4-8 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
High Island to Sea Rim State Park...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area through the morning, with catastrophic wind damage
expected near Laura's eyewall. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning areas through the day.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana this morning.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, across Arkansas: 6 to 12
inches with isolated totals of 18 inches.

This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.

Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi
Valley and portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley, the
central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic States.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight over parts of
Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.

SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky/Blake




Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Laura made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, around 0600 UTC (1 am
CDT) with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt, which is near the high
end of category 4 status. At the time of landfall, Laura was
a ferocious looking hurricane with a clear circular eye, an intense
eyewall, and tightly-coiled surrounding spiral bands. Since the
powerful hurricane has been inland for a few hours, there has been
some decrease in winds, and the estimated initial wind speed based
on Doppler radar data, surface observations, and guidance from an
inland decay model is 105 kt.

The hurricane is now moving northward with the initial motion
estimated to be 355/13 kt. Laura is expected to continue moving
northward through tonight, which should take the core of the system
across Louisiana and Arkansas. After that, Laura will likely
become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the much
weaker cyclone is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward
across the southeast U.S. and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday and
Saturday. By late in the weekend and early next week, Laura,
or its extratropical remnants, should accelerate northeastward
across the western Atlantic.

Now that Laura is inland, rapid weakening is forecast and it
will likely become a tropical storm later today and a tropical
depression on Friday. It should be noted that strong hurricanes
like Laura are not just coastal events. Even though Laura's
highest winds will decrease quickly as it treks inland, significant
impacts from heavy rains and strong wind gusts are likely through
at least tonight across portions of Louisiana and Arkansas. Some
strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is expected when the
storm moves over the Atlantic waters late this weekend and early
next week.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds will continue this morning in portions of
the hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected
near Laura's eyewall. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging
wind gusts will continue to spread well inland into portions of
extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana through the day.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding
potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi,
lower Ohio, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and
Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 30.5N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
12H 27/1800Z 32.6N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0600Z 37.6N 85.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 39.8N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 47.9N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 53.1N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky