ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Apologize if this isn't the right thread, but I thought this was noteworthy. The active tropical wave train has been wreaking havoc on the Sahel region of Africa, particularly Senegal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/10/record- ... hocks.html

This was all before this wave passed as well - you can see some really intense rainfall over Senegal as this splashes down.

Jeez man, they got clobbered hard with what they are calling 'unprecedented' rainfall in the area! This goes to show just how active the wave train is and how the Cape Verde season is trying hard to get going!

Thanks for posting, it's good to know how they are doing in Africa. These waves are incredible this season, and 95L certainly added to their woes.

And is that yet ANOTHER blob of disturbed weather still on the coast of Africa ready to become 96??

[Fancy1001]

Apologize if this isn't the right thread, but I thought this was noteworthy. The active tropical wave train has been wreaking havoc on the Sahel region of Africa, particularly Senegal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/10/record- ... hocks.html

This was all before this wave passed as well - you can see some really intense rainfall over Senegal as this splashes down.

Jeez man, they got clobbered hard with what they are calling 'unprecedented' rainfall in the area! This goes to show just how active the wave train is and how the Cape Verde season is trying hard to get going!

Thanks for posting, it's good to know how they are doing in Africa. These waves are incredible this season, and 95L certainly added to their woes.

And is that yet ANOTHER blob of disturbed weather still on the coast of Africa ready to become 96??

96 is already off the coast of florida, so the one you're referring to would be 97.

[Do_For_Love]

Apologize if this isn't the right thread, but I thought this was noteworthy. The active tropical wave train has been wreaking havoc on the Sahel region of Africa, particularly Senegal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/10/record- ... hocks.html

This was all before this wave passed as well - you can see some really intense rainfall over Senegal as this splashes down.

Jeez man, they got clobbered hard with what they are calling 'unprecedented' rainfall in the area! This goes to show just how active the wave train is and how the Cape Verde season is trying hard to get going!

Thanks for posting, it's good to know how they are doing in Africa. These waves are incredible this season, and 95L certainly added to their woes.

And is that yet ANOTHER blob of disturbed weather still on the coast of Africa ready to become 96??

Yeah they are getting absolutely slammed. This headline claims that the capital of Senegal got a years worth of rain in one night, left thousands homeless : https://www.daytondailynews.com/nation- ... W5A46AW54/

Even if 95L doesn't develop at all, it's already done some damage...

[SFLcane]

Ghost town.

[Buck]

Wow, this along with the one behind it has produced some incredible convection for West Africa. The IR loop someone posted last night... the lightning as the storms moved right through Dakar... wow.

[aspen]

Ghost town.

It won’t be a ghost town for long. 95L has been following the GFS solution, the Euro has given in to the GFS, and it’s looking ever more likely for a powerful TC to be nearing the Lesser Antilles in 5-6 days. I think this has a decent chance of making a run for Cat 5 status depending on how far south it remains at 50-60W.

[aspen]

Here's the latest maximum potential intensity map for MSLP with the future positions of 95L/Sally through 120 hrs and 180 hrs. Regardless if goes into the Caribbean like Maria or turns just before the LAs like Jose, 95L will encounter some exceptionally favorable waters. It remains to be seen if the rest of the environment -- wind shear, moisture, etc -- will be conductive as well. At the very least, SSTs will be more favorable in 95L's early days as compared to Paulette and Rene.

[StPeteMike]

Looking at the models yesterday to conditions and advisories of the storms today, GFS seems to be the most accurate. GFS had Paulette passing Bermuda by Monday and that’s what the NHC is expecting, while many others waited until Tuesday. GFS pretty much killed Rene in the models yesterday and I think we’re seeing the slow death today with it.

Point is, GFS has been very consistent with a westward direction into the Caribbean with this storm and it seems it will be right. And with Paulette out of the picture sooner, the ridge building back in to continue that westward direction seems very plausible at this time.

[zhukm29]

Would be very 2020 for a big one to have the designation AL202020. Actually, I kind of want 96L to take TD19 since this storm will likely have at least 20 advisories.

Last year, I kind of hoped that we'd reach 20 storms this year, just so AL202020 can be a thing (which won't happen again in over a century, assuming 2121 even gets to 21 storms). Also, it makes perfect sense that 2020 will give us a potential big one with the name Teddy, which is the 2nd least threatening name on this list (behind Nana) If this does become Teddy, I hope he doesn't give someone a giant bear hug down the road...

(Also, if Teddy does make a landfall somewhere (hopefully not as a strong storm), it would be funny if the advisory was headlined with "HURRICANE TEDDY BEARS DOWN ON...")

[aspen]

I still think this has the potential to become a major down the line, even if it doesn’t develop until halfway to the LAs and struggles until 50-55W. Either a recurve that misses the islands or a straight path into the Caribbean will give it time to intensify.

[FireRat]

Would be very 2020 for a big one to have the designation AL202020. Actually, I kind of want 96L to take TD19 since this storm will likely have at least 20 advisories.

Last year, I kind of hoped that we'd reach 20 storms this year, just so AL202020 can be a thing (which won't happen again in over a century, assuming 2121 even gets to 21 storms). Also, it makes perfect sense that 2020 will give us a potential big one with the name Teddy, which is the 2nd least threatening name on this list (behind Nana) If this does become Teddy, I hope he doesn't give someone a giant bear hug down the road...

(Also, if Teddy does make a landfall somewhere (hopefully not as a strong storm), it would be funny if the advisory was headlined with "HURRICANE TEDDY BEARS DOWN ON...")

I'm telling you, Teddy is one creepy name. The irony of it would be indeed if this thing got that name and ended up being one of the centerpieces of the 2020 season. We'll have to be very careful wherever it "bears" down haha. Time will tell if indeed this invest gets to be the AL202020 Teddy, it now looks like a Mario Kart race between 95L and 96L to see who wins the name Sally.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don't think we will be able to do more than go back and forth on model solutions until tomorrow or Sunday. Rene's demise and just how much any remnant low fills in will be a big determining factor. Up until today, Rene was in the mix there is a big difference in ECMWF and GFS on how that resolves. In addition, no good handle on the position and height of the ridge 200-300 hours out. GFS depicts a pretty significant trough coming out of Canada off the 1-2 punch of the jet/longwave developing about hour 180. If this holds up, and we see the second and larger longwave develop, this gets caught up about 62W and up and out. Euro not so much , not to mention the little trick of spitting out a low heading SW across FL from Paulette.

In summary I think were set up for battle of tropical lows vs. Rossby waves and there just too many tropical muddying up the picture, so current model runs probably won't age well. I'm thinking that the climo will deliver a strong trough and recurve a strong system in the end but something regenerating in the Gulf or in the Bahamas out of all of this is pretty likely.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located a few hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[aspen]

95L looks like it’s chugging along to the west and taking its sweet time developing. At this rate, I think it won’t develop until ~50W and could end up as a close scrape for the islands like Jose.

[MetroMike]

Looking at the models yesterday to conditions and advisories of the storms today, GFS seems to be the most accurate. GFS had Paulette passing Bermuda by Monday and that’s what the NHC is expecting, while many others waited until Tuesday. GFS pretty much killed Rene in the models yesterday and I think we’re seeing the slow death today with it.

Point is, GFS has been very consistent with a westward direction into the Caribbean with this storm and it seems it will be right. And with Paulette out of the picture sooner, the ridge building back in to continue that westward direction seems very plausible at this time.

Not really trending that way westward into the Caribbean lately.
Please further your point.

[TheStormExpert]

95L looks like it’s chugging along to the west and taking its sweet time developing. At this rate, I think it won’t develop until ~50W and could end up as a close scrape for the islands like Jose.

Models such as the GFS and Euro show it quickly spinning up come Sunday.

[ElectricStorm]

Now that 96L is TD19, looks like this will be the AL202020 storm, and likely Teddy. Such a tame name but it could be a biggie down the road

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of
this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to
form within the next couple of days while the system moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Now that 96L is TD19, looks like this will be the AL202020 storm, and likely Teddy. Such a tame name but it could be a biggie down the road

Yes this will likely be a major, maybe the third depending on whether or not Paulette obtains major status. But like Paulette a recurve is likely with only Bermuda at risk, maybe the extreme NE Caribbean or SE Canada depending on things.

[ElectricStorm]

Now that 96L is TD19, looks like this will be the AL202020 storm, and likely Teddy. Such a tame name but it could be a biggie down the road

Yes this will likely be a major, maybe the third depending on whether or not Paulette obtains major status. But like Paulette a recurve is likely with only Bermuda at risk, maybe the extreme NE Caribbean or SE Canada depending on things.

There's a chance it could even be the 4th major