ATL: SALLY - Models

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#41 Postby blp » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:00 pm

Some good bands if this verifies.

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#42 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:00 pm

Hwrf 24 hours from now. Goes north then dips SW



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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#43 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:07 pm

Gets interesting as soon as it hits the gulf

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#44 Postby blp » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:08 pm

Hmon a little weaker but still good banding coming onshore.

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:24 pm

The trough tries to push it up to the coast, but the ridge builds in at the last second...literally this is going to come down to a few hours or a few millibars.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#46 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The trough tries to push it up to the coast, but the ridge builds in at the last second...literally this is going to come down to a few hours or a few millibars.


Or a few miles. This center consolidation to the SW a bit could have some big track implications later on IMO. It will be interesting to see what the 00z ensemble models show overnight.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#47 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:30 pm

HWRF right at the Florida/Alabama border

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#48 Postby bella_may » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:30 pm

Wow this isn’t good. HWRF was the first to sniff out Laura’s intensity and now it has a 970MB headed towards the Alabama coast
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#49 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:30 pm

Hwrf :eek:

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:31 pm

jasons2k wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The trough tries to push it up to the coast, but the ridge builds in at the last second...literally this is going to come down to a few hours or a few millibars.


Or a few miles. This center consolidation to the SW a bit could have some big track implications later on IMO. It will be interesting to see what the 00z ensemble models show overnight.


Elena may be an analog here if it tries to make that move but gets blocked and forced back west.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#51 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:31 pm

SoupBone wrote:HWRF right at the Florida/Alabama border

https://i.imgur.com/IFC1Yuk.png


It's moving west there. This would be headed right for Lake Pontchartrain.

UPDATE: It would then stall out for a while off Mobile Bay. Talk about a rainmaker!!!
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#52 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:31 pm

18z HWRF shows a high-end Cat 2.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#53 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:32 pm

bella_may wrote:Wow this isn’t good. HWRF was the first to sniff out Laura’s intensity and now it has a 970MB headed towards the Alabama coast


I'm absolutely NOT a model hugger, but the HWRF did pretty good with Laura.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#54 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:32 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:HWRF right at the Florida/Alabama border

https://i.imgur.com/IFC1Yuk.png


It's moving west there. This would be headed right for Lake Pontchartrain.


But is stil a scrap. That would be very damaging for places like Pensacola beach
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#55 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:33 pm

Crawling the coast at 78 hours

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#56 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:34 pm

HMON into Ft. Walton Beach 982mb.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#57 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:35 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:HWRF right at the Florida/Alabama border

https://i.imgur.com/IFC1Yuk.png


It's moving west there. This would be headed right for Lake Pontchartrain.


But is stil a scrap. That would be very damaging for places like Pensacola beach


I am concerned that with the trends for a stronger storm we may see more east trends. This HWRF is a slight shift east from last run as well as the HMON.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#58 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:35 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:HMON into Ft. Walton Beach 982mb.


See and the HMON and HWRF pretty much tag teamed for Laura. That's another reason why I pay attention to both of these.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#59 Postby bella_may » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:41 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
It's moving west there. This would be headed right for Lake Pontchartrain.


But is stil a scrap. That would be very damaging for places like Pensacola beach


I am concerned that with the trends for a stronger storm we may see more east trends. This HWRF is a slight shift east from last run as well as the HMON.


HWRF is the almost the same as the last run just a tad north and stronger
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#60 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:43 pm

Anyone have access to 18z Euro?
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