ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

It looks like something you'd expect to be a tc in 48 hours near the peak of a busy season.

It was 41 hours. I'll take it.

[NDG]

It continued to deepen during the evening.

012700 1658N 08029W 8428 01490 9987 +202 +158 112009 013 /// /// 03
012730 1657N 08029W 8434 01486 9987 +204 +158 205001 007 /// /// 03

[TallyTracker]

50 kts seems reasonable from that pass alone. We’ll see what the rest of the mission finds. With the trends on radar and microwave, I’m guessing close to hurricane strength wind will be found soon.

[Nimbus]

999 mb pressure. 57 kt FL center at just 17.

Still gaining latitude?

[CrazyC83]

I agree with 50 kt. The SFMR is off the rocker but the upper level winds have increased.

[aspen]

Not as strong as I expected during that first pass. I would’ve thought, with such a large CDO and an eyewall on microwave/radar, Nana would already be 55-60 kt and in the mid 990s.

[Aric Dunn]

4 NM to > 32 NM eye

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)


must have gone through an ERC of sorts..

which is why the winds are not higher.

[Hammy]

Data could support up to 55kt--SFMR and flight level have shown 57-58kt at different points.

[cfisher]

4 NM to > 32 NM eye

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)


must have gone through an ERC of sorts..

which is why the winds are not higher.

How does it have a 32 mile eye being that small.

[NDG]

How fast is moving westward is no surprised the NW quadrant is the strongest.

021000 1701N 08044W 8426 01494 9992 +196 +161 082022 025 /// /// 03
021030 1703N 08044W 8429 01494 9993 +198 +155 079030 031 044 000 03
021100 1704N 08045W 8425 01505 0004 +189 +168 072041 046 /// /// 03
021130 1705N 08047W 8436 01502 0016 +180 +178 067050 051 057 000 05
021200 1706N 08048W 8425 01519 //// +182 //// 067051 052 057 000 05
021230 1708N 08050W 8440 01511 0034 +177 +174 067051 053 /// /// 05
021300 1709N 08051W 8425 01530 //// +176 //// 070054 057 /// /// 05
021330 1710N 08052W 8438 01523 //// +171 //// 068057 058 051 000 05
021400 1711N 08054W 8433 01534 0062 +165 +153 064059 060 /// /// 03
021430 1713N 08055W 8430 01539 0065 +167 +149 066060 061 /// /// 03
021500 1714N 08056W 8427 01548 0069 +168 +149 066061 062 /// /// 03
021530 1715N 08058W 8430 01550 0073 +167 +152 068060 062 /// /// 03
021600 1716N 08059W 8430 01550 0076 +173 +148 070057 060 /// /// 03
021630 1718N 08101W 8430 01556 0081 +168 +156 068055 056 /// /// 03


$$
;

[CrazyC83]

4 NM to > 32 NM eye

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)


must have gone through an ERC of sorts..

which is why the winds are not higher.

How does it have a 32 mile eye being that small.

Maybe that's an error? Or 3.2 miles?

[MississippiWx]

4 NM to > 32 NM eye

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)


must have gone through an ERC of sorts..

which is why the winds are not higher.

Is the storm even 32nm across?

[Aric Dunn]

4 NM to > 32 NM eye

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)


must have gone through an ERC of sorts..

which is why the winds are not higher.

How does it have a 32 mile eye being that small.

Maybe that's an error? Or 3.2 miles?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 2:04Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2020
Storm Name: Nana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 1:27:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.95N 80.49W
B. Center Fix Location: 172 statute miles (276 km) to the SSE (160°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,420m (4,659ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 198° at 14kts (From the SSW at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the north
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 57kts (From the SE at 65.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix at 1:24:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 311° at 36kts (From the NW at 41.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SW (221°) of center fix at 1:33:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (53°) from the flight level center at 1:24:00Z

[NDG]

4 NM to > 32 NM eye

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)


must have gone through an ERC of sorts..

which is why the winds are not higher.

How does it have a 32 mile eye being that small.

Maybe that's an error? Or 3.2 miles?

I agree, there's no way the eyelike character is 37 miles in diameter.

[Aric Dunn]

How does it have a 32 mile eye being that small.

Maybe that's an error? Or 3.2 miles?

I agree, there's no way the eyelike character is 37 miles in diameter.

looking at radar and the range rings.

it is definitely at least 30nm.

must have gone through an ERC

[MississippiWx]

~65kt flight level winds in the NW quadrant. Not bad.

Should mean she's well on her way to becoming a hurricane tomorrow.

[cfisher]

seems like it has an outflow problem

[ClarCari]

Could this mean we see a donut storm soon?

[ElectricStorm]

AF301 is already done? That was fast.
Edit: Never mind just saw AF307 is on the way

[MississippiWx]

Increased the strength to 60mph.