ATL: DELTA - Models

[Steve]

GFS doesn't shift appreciably. It looks like the NHC's track. Solid Cat 2 or 3 into Marsh Island Friday evening and 960's. Sometimes the GFS is okay, but it's been believable in track and intensity the last couple of runs. It's strong but not bullish, and it keeps moving to where it's already up toward Vicksburg by 1am Saturday morning and almost Memphis by 1pm Saturday afternoon. If GFS is right, it's a quick hit storm that's gone in a couple of hours. Different for a major or Cat 2. Could be bad for some, but it's almost like a try it before you buy it event.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=90

[Wx_Warrior]

Gfs 0z

[Steve]

CMC has Laura redux at 7pm Friday though only 976. It's with the EC and ICON where it landfalls in Cameron Parish close to the border with Texas.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=72

[HouTXmetro]

CMC has Laura redux at 7pm Friday though only 976. It's with the EC and ICON where it landfalls in Cameron Parish close to the border with Texas.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=72

Is the GFS Para still further west as it was earlier?

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET is sticking with a track NNE from C LA to along the LA/MS border to N MS.

[Steve]

CMC has Laura redux at 7pm Friday though only 976. It's with the EC and ICON where it landfalls in Cameron Parish close to the border with Texas.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=72

Is the GFS Para still further west as it was earlier?

Not sure HouTX. I use Tropical Tidbits, and their GFS-Parallel is always slow. I know Frank P and others told me go to other sites, but that's the one on my bar that I always use. It's usually several hours behind the runs on Para.

[Steve]

HWRF looks .3 degrees north of 18z for 45 hours (51 hours on 18z) and is 10mb lower in pressure. I'll post the landfalls for HMON and HWRF before I crash.

[SoupBone]

HWRF looks .3 degrees north of 18z for 45 hours (51 hours on 18z) and is 10mb lower in pressure. I'll post the landfalls for HMON and HWRF before I crash.

HMON is right on top of the west tip of Vermillion Bay.

[Steve]

HMON
Landfall 72 hours in Vermilion Parish, LA. It had been an eastern outlier the last few days, but this is probably close. Comes in at 953, Friday 7pm.

[Steve]

HWRF is similar to HMON but much faster. 946. Vermilion Parish. Friday after lunch. We just got some drizzle from Gamma, so cheers to that. Good night.

[TallahasseeMan]

HWRF is similar to HMON but much faster. 946. Vermilion Parish. Friday after lunch. We just got some drizzle from Gamma, so cheers to that. Good night.

Seems the faster it’s moving the more strength it will maintain over the cooler coastal waters.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SoupBone]

Euro at the TX/LA line at 72 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Euro at the TX/LA line at 72 hours.

That's the farthest west any model has done yet.

[CrazyC83]

GFS ensemble mean is near Cameron now.

[kevin]

I have a bad feeling that these west shifts will continue and Delta might make landfall near Lake Charles, ravaging the exact same region that had to withstand Laura earlier this season. I guess we'll have a better handle on the track of Delta once it clears Yucatan.

[3090]

GFS doesn't shift appreciably. It looks like the NHC's track. Solid Cat 2 or 3 into Marsh Island Friday evening and 960's. Sometimes the GFS is okay, but it's been believable in track and intensity the last couple of runs. It's strong but not bullish, and it keeps moving to where it's already up toward Vicksburg by 1am Saturday morning and almost Memphis by 1pm Saturday afternoon. If GFS is right, it's a quick hit storm that's gone in a couple of hours. Different for a major or Cat 2. Could be bad for some, but it's almost like a try it before you buy it event.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=90

“COULD be bad for some?” How about; “IT will be bad for the area it impacts” But like that matters, if you find yourself under the core of Delta, right?

[3090]

Euro at the TX/LA line at 72 hours.

That's the farthest west any model has done yet.

Going rogue. Lol

[tolakram]

HWRF running, so far weaker short term, still strengthening longer term. HWRF intensity has not been good this storm, it has Delta at 935mb before landfall and that's not going to happen.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]