ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[Nuno]

Quite a large break in the ridge along 50W. Fortunately, it looks like it will turn north well east of the Caribbean. EC does indicate a possible east US coast threat in 10 days, but it has been very inconsistent from run to run.

It also looks at least as good as Omar did while the NHC called it a TD for two days with no organized thunderstorms. Of course, this disturbance has multiple centers and Omar had but one. Could have 3-4 named storms at once in the Atlantic in 7-10 days, all out in the middle of nowhere, I hope. I can take more days off next week.

To be clear, you're *not* asserting the NHC was wrong, correct?

[aspen]

92L is currently in a far better shape than the previous 92L. Yes, it still has a broad and elliptical circulation, but it’s decently well-defined and isn’t nearly as large as pre-Isaias. More convection is also firing as Dmax arrives. If convection persists or increases and the circulation tightens up a bit more, I think we could have a TD as early as in the next 24 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1302728431436783617

[cycloneye]

100%/100%

Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
northern Leeward Islands continues to get better organized. A
tropical depression is expected to form later tonight or on Monday
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[wxman57]

I have it passing over 500 miles ENE of the Caribbean next Friday evening (21.4N / 55.2W) then turning north along 55W. Paulette may be dancing with Rene in the open Atlantic in 8-10 days.

[aspen]

100%/100%

Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
northern Leeward Islands continues to get better organized. A
tropical depression is expected to form later tonight or on Monday
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Well then, I guess we should expect TD17 at 11pm.

[us89]

I'm betting this gets classified at 11 pm.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm betting this gets classified at 11 pm.

with the current convection and curved band developing on the south side. I would say they will start advisories at 11.

also there will be various SCAT passes between now and then. so that will help and it might go to TS>

there were 35kt wind barbs off an on over the past few days already.

[aspen]

92L’s best track update is suspiciously late. Julio and 93L have gotten theirs already. I think 92L is about to get an upgrade.

[Aric Dunn]

92L’s best track update is suspiciously late. Julio and 93L have gotten theirs already. I think 92L is about to get an upgrade.

Yeah 92L disappeared from the NRL site too.

[cycloneye]

92L INVEST 200907 0000 17.0N 41.3W ATL 30 1006

[us89]

Still a 30 kt invest according to the Navy site:

92L INVEST 200907 0000 17.0N 41.3W ATL 30 1006

[Aric Dunn]

it should be upgraded at 11.

looks like mostly 30kts. might be a 35kt in there. but not enough for TS.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 17, 2020090700, , BEST, 0, 170N, 413W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035, TRANSITIONED, alC22020 to al172020,

[ElectricStorm]

AL, 17, 2020090700, , BEST, 0, 170N, 413W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035, TRANSITIONED, alC22020 to al172020,

Here we go... Hopefully this misses all land areas... And puts a good amount of ace on the board

[cycloneye]

Is oficial.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1302791393186734080

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

NHC's 5-day point is within 10-15 miles of my point just past 55W. That's where the northerly turn should occur, after 120 hrs.

[DestinHurricane]

" Possible track forecast complications could
develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the
depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining
as much latitude as currently indicated. The NHC forecast track lies
down the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus model
guidance envelope."

[LarryWx]

TD 17 will qualify by my definition as a CV storm with genesis on 9/6.

Exact dates of FORMATION (TD+) for 51 1851-2020 (through 9/6/20) CV storms** that hit the continental U.S. based on dates of initial FORMATION:

7/5, 7/11, 7/15, 7/31, 8/3, 8/3, 8/5, 8/7, 8/7, 8/15, 8/15, 8/16, 8/16, 8/17, 8/17, 8/18, 8/19, 8/19, 8/20, 8/20, 8/21, 8/21, 8/23, 8/24, 8/25, 8/25, 8/27, 8/28, 8/28, 8/29, 8/29, 8/29, 8/31, 9/1, 9/2, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6, 9/6, 9/7, 9/8, 9/9, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/11, 9/15, 9/16, 9/21, 9/21, 9/25

So, I have 5 CV storms within 2 days of the genesis day of TD 17 having hit the CONUS since 1851, a pretty busy period still well within the highest risk period of 8/15-9/11. Hopefully this won't be the 6th one.

**My def. of CV storm:
tropical storm/hurricane that first became at least a TD E of 50W and S of 20N

The fact that the forecast track has no NW movement tells me the CONUS needs to keep watching this one closely. Early NW movement is almost a guarantee of a safe OTS recurve.