ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Now that 96L is TD19, looks like this will be the AL202020 storm, and likely Teddy. Such a tame name but it could be a biggie down the road

Yes this will likely be a major, maybe the third depending on whether or not Paulette obtains major status. But like Paulette a recurve is likely with only Bermuda at risk, maybe the extreme NE Caribbean or SE Canada depending on things.

There's a chance it could even be the 4th major

4th!?

[ElectricStorm]

Yes this will likely be a major, maybe the third depending on whether or not Paulette obtains major status. But like Paulette a recurve is likely with only Bermuda at risk, maybe the extreme NE Caribbean or SE Canada depending on things.

There's a chance it could even be the 4th major

4th!?

Yup. I know it's not the most likely outcome but there's always a chance TD19 could become one, making this the 4th

[aspen]

Yes this will likely be a major, maybe the third depending on whether or not Paulette obtains major status. But like Paulette a recurve is likely with only Bermuda at risk, maybe the extreme NE Caribbean or SE Canada depending on things.

There's a chance it could even be the 4th major

4th!?

Assuming Paulette and Sally become majors before 95L does too (Paulette is extremely likely, Sally is a big maybe as of now, 95L has a decent shot).

[abajan]

Levi Cowan's discussion on Invest 95L.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yes this will likely be a major, maybe the third depending on whether or not Paulette obtains major status. But like Paulette a recurve is likely with only Bermuda at risk, maybe the extreme NE Caribbean or SE Canada depending on things.

There's a chance it could even be the 4th major

4th!?

I mean, I guess there's an outside chance Sally becomes a major if you believe the HWRF. Paulette will probably become one. Then 95L. That would be 4 major hurricanes.

[FireRat]

TD 19 sure is stealing the show right now! I bet this also causes the NHC to take longer to name 95L as they'll be super busy with soon to be Sally in the GOM.

[Hammy]

TD 19 sure is stealing the show right now! I bet this also causes the NHC to take longer to name 95L as they'll be super busy with soon to be Sally in the GOM.

I doubt they'd take longer to upgrade as a result of 19--as far as I know on any given shift there's at least one person assigned per storm so nobody gets stretched thin working on multiple ones.

[CrazyC83]

And we thought THIS would be the storm that would get the attention...instead it continues to lurk.

[FireRat]

TD 19 sure is stealing the show right now! I bet this also causes the NHC to take longer to name 95L as they'll be super busy with soon to be Sally in the GOM.

I doubt they'd take longer to upgrade as a result of 19--as far as I know on any given shift there's at least one person assigned per storm so nobody gets stretched thin working on multiple ones.

Yeah that would make sense, hopefully you're right. What a September they're having at the NHC! Must be stimulating but super stressful for them right now with this literal traffic jam in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Almost a TD.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 12/0530Z

C. 11.5N

D. 31.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE LLCC WHICH MAKES THE
DT EQUAL TO 1.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 1.5 BASED ON
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE FIRST INITIAL 24 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[ouragans]

Code: Select all

2. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


[cycloneye]

95L INVEST 200912 1200 11.2N 32.2W ATL 25 1007



A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 12/1130Z

C. 11.3N

D. 32.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING MEASURED AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 2.5. MET
IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE OF T-NO
TO T0.5/6HRS WHEN PREVIOIUS T-NO <=1.5.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks like a TD, or close

[TallyTracker]

Looks like a TD, or close
https://i.imgur.com/QQsBeg1.gif

That doesn’t look like disorganized convection anymore. Wouldn’t be surprised to see TD Twenty declared at 11 am.

[abajan]

Looks like a TD, or close
https://i.imgur.com/QQsBeg1.gif

That doesn’t look like disorganized convection anymore. Wouldn’t be surprised to see TD Twenty declared at 11 am.

Since there's no notice on the NHC page to that effect, they'll probably declare it at 5 PM.

[ConvergenceZone]

So glad this has about a 95% chance of going out to sea.....It was expected though. Tons of escape routs......

[ouragans]

Probabilities should be raised to 90/90 with the wording "if this trend continues, advisories..."

[ClarCari]

Probabilities should be raised to 90/90 with the wording "if this trend continues, advisories..."

You basically wrote the TWO for them, 2PM now says what you said.
The next few days we are now likely to have 3 hurricanes at some point soooo here comes the ACE everyone’s “begged” for

[CrazyC83]

It looks like Paulette, Sally and Teddy will be doing the ACE work. (Not much faith with 97L)

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TWENTY, AL, L, , , , , 20, 2020, LO, O, 2020090418, 9999999999, , 039, , , 4, WARNING, 5, AL202020