ATL: SALLY - Models

[shah83]

HWRF 18z paints a pretty serious flooding situation, particularly in Alabama?

[aspen]

HWRF peaks in 72-75 hours near Cat 3 intensity before turning to the west and crawling across the coast as a weakening C1/TS.

[CrazyC83]

One thing that is for sure: this will be a very wet storm - both for storm surge and especially for rainfall.

[SoupBone]

Anyone have access to 18z Euro?

I don't, but I'd pay for it if I knew exactly where to get it.

[Ivanhater]

It looks like shear does pick up after landfall. I think any models that bring it far west is as a weakening/remant low.

18z euro?

[SoupBone]

One thing that is for sure: this will be a very wet storm - both for storm surge and especially for rainfall.

If the HWRF verified, pushing slowly due east from the panhandle, you'd see piles of water getting into Lake Pontchartrain. That would not be good.

[Ivanhater]

Anyone have access to 18z Euro?

I don't, but I'd pay for it if I knew exactly where to get it.

I think Aric and a couple others do.

[Dean4Storms]

It looks like shear does pick up after landfall. I think any models that bring it far west is as a weakening/remant low.

18z euro?

Moves it more NNW from near Ft. Myers to about 75 miles South of Apalachicola @ 1002mb then moves it due West and stalls from 63hrs to 68hrs as far as has loaded so far due South of P'Cola about 100miles. Presssure still 1002mb with winds gusting to near 70mph.

[gatorcane]

Here is the 18Z GFS shear animation through day 5. Notice the shear currently at hour 0, then the shear relaxes over the EGOM and picks up again along the northern Gulf coast by days 4 and 5:

[Dean4Storms]

Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.

[Ivanhater]

Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.

Thanks for posting the 18z euro

[Dean4Storms]

Takeaways with Euro track.....much more of a NNW track toward Apalachicola before a turn West then a stall south of P'Cola. I'm not buying the intensity however and that gives me a concern for Panama City area to P'Cola as I would expect a deeper storm than 1002mb and you have to wonder about that turn.

[storm4u]

You can get the 18z Euro ensembles for free in a hour. At weathernerds

Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.

Thanks for posting the 18z euro

[Ivanhater]

00Z Early track models

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[AlabamaDave]

That angle of approach reminds me somewhat of Elena - 1985.

[cp79]

Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.

Wow...Elena flashbacks anyone??

[gatorcane]

00Z HRRR:

[Gums]

Salute!
I am remembering tracks like Erin (95) or Elena (85) ( tho Elena did a loop in the gulf before making up her mind). And then Betsy, that looped in the Atlantic then grazed the Keys then headed to NOLA.

This thing worries me, here in the Pnhandle.

Gums sends...

[Ivanhater]

00Z Icon finally on board. Landfall around Mobile

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[bella_may]

00Z Icon finally on board. Landfall around Mobilehttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/339329f1613809df1537b298b6fa878e.jpg

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

GFS too