ATL: SALLY - Models

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#61 Postby shah83 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:43 pm

HWRF 18z paints a pretty serious flooding situation, particularly in Alabama?
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#62 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:48 pm

HWRF peaks in 72-75 hours near Cat 3 intensity before turning to the west and crawling across the coast as a weakening C1/TS.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#63 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:50 pm

One thing that is for sure: this will be a very wet storm - both for storm surge and especially for rainfall.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#64 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:50 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Anyone have access to 18z Euro?


I don't, but I'd pay for it if I knew exactly where to get it. :lol:
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#65 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:51 pm

It looks like shear does pick up after landfall. I think any models that bring it far west is as a weakening/remant low.

18z euro?
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#66 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:One thing that is for sure: this will be a very wet storm - both for storm surge and especially for rainfall.


If the HWRF verified, pushing slowly due east from the panhandle, you'd see piles of water getting into Lake Pontchartrain. That would not be good.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#67 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:52 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Anyone have access to 18z Euro?


I don't, but I'd pay for it if I knew exactly where to get it. :lol:


:lol:

I think Aric and a couple others do.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#68 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:10 pm

Ivanhater wrote:It looks like shear does pick up after landfall. I think any models that bring it far west is as a weakening/remant low.

18z euro?


Moves it more NNW from near Ft. Myers to about 75 miles South of Apalachicola @ 1002mb then moves it due West and stalls from 63hrs to 68hrs as far as has loaded so far due South of P'Cola about 100miles. Presssure still 1002mb with winds gusting to near 70mph.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#69 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:12 pm

Here is the 18Z GFS shear animation through day 5. Notice the shear currently at hour 0, then the shear relaxes over the EGOM and picks up again along the northern Gulf coast by days 4 and 5:

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#70 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:15 pm

Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#71 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:17 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.


:double:

Thanks for posting the 18z euro
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#72 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:21 pm

Takeaways with Euro track.....much more of a NNW track toward Apalachicola before a turn West then a stall south of P'Cola. I'm not buying the intensity however and that gives me a concern for Panama City area to P'Cola as I would expect a deeper storm than 1002mb and you have to wonder about that turn.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#73 Postby storm4u » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:24 pm

You can get the 18z Euro ensembles for free in a hour. At weathernerds


Ivanhater wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.


:double:

Thanks for posting the 18z euro
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#74 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:16 pm

00Z Early track modelsImage

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#75 Postby AlabamaDave » Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:23 pm

That angle of approach reminds me somewhat of Elena - 1985.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#76 Postby cp79 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:52 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Wow....18z ECMWF with a stall South of P'Cola from hour 63 thru 80hr so far. A TS @ 1002mb with winds gusting to 70mph just offshore.


Wow...Elena flashbacks anyone??
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#77 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:33 pm

00Z HRRR:

Image
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#78 Postby Gums » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:41 pm

Salute!
I am remembering tracks like Erin (95) or Elena (85) ( tho Elena did a loop in the gulf before making up her mind). And then Betsy, that looped in the Atlantic then grazed the Keys then headed to NOLA.

This thing worries me, here in the Pnhandle.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#79 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:50 pm

00Z Icon finally on board. Landfall around MobileImage

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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models

#80 Postby bella_may » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:57 pm

Ivanhater wrote:00Z Icon finally on board. Landfall around Mobilehttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/339329f1613809df1537b298b6fa878e.jpg

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

GFS too
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