EPAC: ELIDA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Some dry air to its west but it also looks like it’s about to bomb out. NHC incorrectly mentions SAB was T3.5 went it was T4.0 and weirdly only brings this to 80 knots now. Time is starting to run out tho.

[Yellow Evan]

10/1730 UTC 19.1N 110.4W T4.5/4.5 ELIDA -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ELIDA EP092020 08/10/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 76 77 72 64 54 43 34 25 24 23 21 21 20 19
V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 76 77 72 64 54 43 34 25 24 23 21 21 20 19
V (KT) LGEM 65 69 73 74 73 65 55 45 36 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 11 7 6 5 6 12 12 14 13 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 340 335 314 274 223 203 221 197 196 214 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.8 26.5 25.9 25.2 24.6 23.9 23.7 23.3 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 143 130 123 116 109 100 98 94 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 65 63 59 61 59 55 50 45 39 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 21 21 21 20 17 14 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 29 23 16 1 -19 7 8 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 35 32 19 1 1 9 3 2 12 -13 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -6 -9 -5 -2 3 14 12 10 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 401 390 432 506 534 662 790 896 994 1110 1253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.8 22.4 22.7 22.8 22.7 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.7 113.0 114.3 115.5 117.9 120.1 121.9 123.2 124.5 126.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 10 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -15. -19. -18. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 12. 7. -1. -11. -22. -31. -40. -41. -42. -44. -44. -45. -46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.3 110.3

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 3.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 6.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 -4.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 21.1% 28.5% 28.2% 19.9% 15.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.4% 9.1% 6.6% 1.7% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 9.2% 12.6% 11.6% 7.2% 6.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 25.0% 17.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[aspen]

And she’s finally a hurricane. 18z best track was updated to 65 kt/990 mbar.

[Yellow Evan]

The storm's structure is very vulnerable to dry air intrusion. Took a couple days but this is now 2020ing.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah still tryna push out the dry air. Some pre-major Douglas vibes with this one compared to Cristina though.



Main thing is that inner core convection has expanded and is building in the western quadrant once more compared to last night:


SHIPS shows another 24 hours of solid conditions ahead of it. That's a lot of time for it to try and become a major hurricane. Wouldn't surprise me if it didn't though.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Elida continues to gradually gain strength. Satellite images show
that the storm has a well organized central dense overcast and
curved bands that surround that feature. Recent microwave images
show a partial eyewall, but dry slots appear to be preventing it
from completely closing off. The satellite intensity estimates
have increased, and support upgrading Elida to a 65-kt hurricane.
The center of Elida is passing just north of Socorro Island.

The hurricane has about another day over warm water and in
generally favorable atmospheric conditions, so some additional
strengthening seems likely during that time period. After that,
however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in
southerly shear in a few days should cause a steady weakening
trend. Elida will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when
it is forecast to be in quite dry conditions and over cool 23 C
waters. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lie at the high
end of the guidance in the short term, but falls near the middle of
the guidance envelope beyond a couple of days.

Elida is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge
located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer
the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed
for another couple of days. After that time, the models diverge
with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing a more northward
motion toward a mid- to upper-level trough. Conversely, the HWRF,
UKMET, and other models show a more westward motion in the low-level
flow. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted
northward, but it still lies closer to the southern end of the
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[aspen]

Judging by its IR presentation, Elida is — big surprise — struggling with dry air intrusion in its core. Like we haven’t seen that enough of that this year in the EPac.

[Kingarabian]

We're lucky it even reached hurricane status to be honest.

[Yellow Evan]

This is going nowhere as dry air in mid August of all months is killing it. 2020 strikes again.

[Kazmit]

So much for "the EPac's time to shine"

[Kingarabian]

Hot tower after hot tower and still not able to close off an eyewall.

[Kingarabian]

So much for "the EPac's time to shine"

Well at least this season so far is not as terrible as 2010's.

[gatorcane]

The GFS insists there will be a major in the EPAC over the next 10 days and at least 4 more names systems. Elida wasn’t supposed to be that big one though she is underperforming.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So much for "the EPac's time to shine"

Well at least this season so far is not as terrible as 2010's.

2010 at least had Celia.

[Kingarabian]

So much for "the EPac's time to shine"

Well at least this season so far is not as terrible as 2010's.

2010 at least had Celia.

She was a cat.5 for like half a day? Plus we've already has Diuglas which was pretty beastly. The 2010 season ended with 8 named storms and 3 hurricanes. This season is well ahead of that.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 09, 2020081100, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1115W, 75, 983, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 30, 60, 1009, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, EP, 09, 2020081100, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1115W, 75, 983, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 30, 1009, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, EP, 09, 2020081100, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1115W, 75, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 15, 1009, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,

[Kingarabian]

NHC went higher surprisingly.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

The last few visible images before sunset showed that while Elida
had developed a faint eye, recent microwave data suggest the
eyewall is open on the north and northwest sides. Nonetheless, the
system is still on a strengthening trend, and the latest wind speed
is set to 75 kt, close to the latest TAFB/SAB intensity estimates.

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level
ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should
steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward
speed for another couple of days. The biggest change to report is
that most of the guidance are showing this motion continuing
(instead of a westward turn) or even a more poleward trend in a few
days due to a mid-latitude trough. It is uncertain how vertically
deep Elida will be at that point, but there is even a low-level
weakness in the model fields, suggesting that a shallower Elida
would still feel that trough. Consequentially, the new NHC
official forecast is shifted roughly 90 n mi to the north by day 4,
with continuity preventing a larger change. The forecast is still
on the southern end of the guidance envelope, so further northward
adjustments could still be required overnight.

The hurricane has less than a day to further intensify before it
then moves over cooler waters, which should start to weaken Elida.
In a couple of days, a faster weakening is shown than the last
advisory since the cyclone is more likely to cross over cooler
waters more quickly than previously anticipated due to the
northward track change, along with additional shear. Likewise, the
post-tropical timing is also accelerated to day 3, which is
consistent with the latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Astromanía]

Its eye is looking better, but sadly this will begin weakening any time soon, I wonder if it will reach category 2 before reaching cool waters