ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[us89]

First NHC advisory has the storm peaking as a 55 kt TS.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1302805118279208960

[Aric Dunn]

NHC track is the only conculsion any of us could come up with based on the models.

So we wait..as models will continue to be all over the place with track, intensity and just the complex mechanisms involved in the future track.

[ClarCari]

TD17 is in between a rock and a hard place right now, one where escape (aka intensity to a hurricane or major) is dependent on the rock(93L) and hard place(potential shear). Honestly won’t be surprised what happens to this system either way

[wxman57]

Seventeen may not last much beyond day 5. No Caribbean threat, and most likely not a US threat down the road. It's Nineteen we may have to worry about down the road.

[SFLcane]

Seventeen may not last much beyond day 5. No Caribbean threat, and most likely not a US threat down the road. It's Nineteen we may have to worry about down the road.

[aspen]

TD17’s center is displaced slightly to the SW of convection, but the CIMSS chart shows low to moderate shear and an anticyclone over the storm. I guess the AC might be placed in a bit of an unfavorable position when it comes to shear.

[MarioProtVI]

AL, 17, 2020090712, , BEST, 0, 171N, 421W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PAULETTE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035,

[St0rmTh0r]

About to see a lot of names checked off the list in t he next 2 weeks

[AnnularCane]

So Twin A/TD 17 has a name now! Guess they didn't have to duke it out for Paulette for very long.

[northjaxpro]

Paulette has been born!

[Buck]

Ok Paulette... defy the odds, be a fish and get us some ACE then you can go.

[aspen]

Yet another record broken. Paulette is the earliest 16th named storm, surpassing Philippe ‘05 by 10 days. 2020 is over a week ahead of 2005 at this point and will continue obliterating its earliest named storm records.

[Kazmit]

I haven't been too active during the past week. I can't believe we're already at 16 named storms in early September.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1302980292093841408

[northjaxpro]

Current N. Atlantic basin tally:

16 named tropical cyclones

5 hurricanes

1 major

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1302980292093841408

I suspected it was decoupled when I saw the exposed LLC earlier. On the most recent frames, the LLC appears to be rotating closer to the MLC and mass of convection.

If the LLC and MLC can get stacked for 24-36 hours, Paulette could make a run for hurricane status. The NHC has moderately favorable conditions for the next two days or so.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC track is the only conculsion any of us could come up with based on the models.

So we wait..as models will continue to be all over the place with track, intensity and just the complex mechanisms involved in the future track.

So what are the odds that the ridge builds in deeper and pushes it further west. With earlier storms the models would under do the ridge early on and each runs after it got named would show a deeper ridge. Is that less likely to happen now? Is there a trough that should come through and send these storms OTS?

[DestinHurricane]

NHC track is the only conculsion any of us could come up with based on the models.

So we wait..as models will continue to be all over the place with track, intensity and just the complex mechanisms involved in the future track.

So what are the odds that the ridge builds in deeper and pushes it further west. With earlier storms the models would under do the ridge early on and each runs after it got named would show a deeper ridge. Is that less likely to happen now? Is there a trough that should come through and send these storms OTS?

That's definitely a possibility, especially with the +NAO and +AO.

[drezee]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1302980292093841408

I suspected it was decoupled when I saw the exposed LLC earlier. On the most recent frames, the LLC appears to be rotating closer to the MLC and mass of convection.

If the LLC and MLC can get stacked for 24-36 hours, Paulette could make a run for hurricane status. The NHC has moderately favorable conditions for the next two days or so.

I agree that it will make a run at Cat 1