SPAC: ESTHER - Ex-Tropical Cyclone

[Nancy Smar]

99P INVEST 200220 1200 13.0S 140.0E SHEM 15 1010

[1900hurricane]

Sub 970 mb land cyclone? Some of these EPS members are just pain goofy.

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZFEB2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZFEB2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210221ZFEB2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 21FEB20 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 170.8W, APPROXIMATELY 31 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S 176.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 176.8W, APPROXIMATELY
375 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 210339Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT 98P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 210230) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.6S 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY
170 NM NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210407Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH DEEP FRAGMENTED CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. INVEST 99P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99P WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD AND
MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST [3:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.4 degrees South 139.7 degrees East, estimated to be 255 kilometres west southwest of Weipa and 350 kilometres east northeast of Groote Eylandt.

Movement: slow moving.

A weak tropical low located over the central Gulf of Carpentaria has recently begun to show early signs of development. The surrounding environment will remain strongly supportive of development of this low over the coming few days, and it is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during the time period from Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The system is expected to be slow moving at first, before adopting a south-southwesterly track towards the southern Gulf coast during Saturday and Sunday.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0720 UTC 21/02/2020
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.4S
Longitude: 139.7E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa

2020-02-21 06Z
- NAMELESS (07U) -
Position: 13.4S 139.7E
Intensity: 20kt 1001hPa

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BOM_Qld/status/1231650746447192064

[aspen]

The GFS and Euro both want this to redevelop into a sub-950 mbar system off the NW Australian coast next week. The latest Euro run is especially aggressive, forecasting a peak of 927 mbar.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BOM_NT/status/1231751412436127744

[1900hurricane]

Big question is if it can even make it back off Australia now.

[wxman57]

Big question is if it can even make it back off Australia now.

That's looking less likely. I certainly don't "buy" the EC's forecast of a 968mb land-cane, but it could generate 35kt winds along the coast. Not enough for BoM to upgrade it back to TC Esther, though, as they require TS wind in 3 quadrants.

[wxman57]

The link to a paper about inland regeneration of TCs over northern Australia was posted to the tropical storms email list. Good reading. The example storm, Abigail, moved inland into the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Feb. 25th, 2001 then tracked westward. Very similar to Esther.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2008MWR2409.1

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1233116439764033536