WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[Jay Typhoon]

95W INVEST 200505 1800 4.3N 138.5E WPAC 20 1005

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 051900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051900Z-060600ZMAY2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.3N
138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051143Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEAL A
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND ISOLATED 25 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Looks good kind of like how 94W was advisori'd fast but model support or consistent development is more or less or even more lacking than 94W was but you never know nature might not confirm with the models this time (but I always say that in my mind whenever the models are dull )

[Nancy Smar]

95W.INVEST.20050600.20kts.1005mb.4.5N.137.8E.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 060000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 04N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[doomhaMwx]

More models are now picking up on slow/gradual development. Looks like this indeed has a better opportunity for further development with the favorable phase of the MJO around and forecast to remain in the WPAC during the next 7 days or so. I'll still be extra cautious though given how model guidance have performed poorly lately.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MSCuyugan_WX/status/1257940780590567425

[1900hurricane]

Guidance is giving me a 94W deja-vu, but this case does have better cyclonic vorticity when viewed from satellite imagery in my opinion, which may give it a better staring point. Pretty sparse convection wise right now though.

[doomhaMwx]

Global models continue to point out to slow/gradual development during the next five days, perhaps before it moves into the central Philippines.

[doomhaMwx]

Don't these low-level westerlies, like in the case of 95W now, aid in TC development? On the other hand, easterlies are present to the south of 96W.

[Hayabusa]

Hmmm scorching hot and lots of sub 880 mb color surrounding the phil

[1900hurricane]

Not feeling too high on this one. The recent Guam sounding show extensive low level dry air being transported westwards with the trade winds towards the invest. Lower heights associated with the upper trough shearing out just to the north might help counter this by promoting convection, but that's a lot of dry air to overcome.

[Nancy Smar]

95W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.6.7N.132.8E.

ABPW10 PGTW 090030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/090030Z-090600ZMAY2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 135.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 132.8E, APPROXIMATELY 114
NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 082125Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. INVEST 95W IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

95W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.6.7N.132.8E.

ABPW10 PGTW 090030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/090030Z-090600ZMAY2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 135.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 132.8E, APPROXIMATELY 114
NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 082125Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. INVEST 95W IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

At least finally an invest that reached medium chance, all those previous invests this year were either just low chance or not mentioned at all

[mrbagyo]

[aspen]

What I find very intriguing about 95W is that every model keeps this as a very tiny and compact system. This can make it more vulnerable to shear and the dry air 1900hurricane mentioned earlier, but it could also allow for sudden explosive intensification, similar to Ambali in the SWIO last year.

As of 1 pm EST, the GFS, Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON all show development, with every model except the Euro taking it to at least Cat 1 status.

[mrbagyo]

HWRF is also loving it.

Visayan landfall during the month of May is quite uncommon but not totally unheard of.

[aspen]

18z GFS takes some time to develop but keeps it in a NNW motion that leaves it over open waters for longer, before taking a hard W turn into the Philippines, with a ~965 mbar landfall at 120 hr.

[Nancy Smar]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 07.3N 131.8E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Hayabusa]

Hmm yes finally first TD of the year

WWJP27 RJTD 100000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 07.3N 131.8E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.