ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

91L INVEST 200526 1800 29.6N 81.0W ATL 25 1010

Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120880

Post away.

[northjaxpro]

I definitely think this tag was warranted indeed . I think this system will be a TS within the next 18 hours.

[Shell Mound]

Only two seasons have featured two or more systems in the month of May: 1887 and 2012.

[JetFuel_SE]

Only two seasons have featured two or more pre-June systems within the calendar-year: 1887 and 2012.

2016 would like to talk?

[xironman]

I definitely think this tag was warranted indeed . I think this system will be a TS within the next 18 hours.

Have to agree, it has consolidated a bit offshore with less land interaction.

[aspen]

Only two seasons have featured two or more pre-June systems within the calendar-year: 1887 and 2012.

2016 would like to talk?

I think he means 1887 and 2012 are the only other seasons with two May storms.

[Monsoonjr99]

Only two seasons have featured two or more pre-June systems within the calendar-year: 1887 and 2012.

1933 and 2016 would like to talk?

Yes, and 1908 had two hurricanes before the season! One in March and one in May.

[AnnularCane]

Only two seasons have featured two or more pre-June systems within the calendar-year: 1887 and 2012.

2016 would like to talk?

Guess everybody forgets about poor Alex.

[Shell Mound]

Only two seasons have featured two or more pre-June systems within the calendar-year: 1887 and 2012.

1933 and 2016 would like to talk?

Yes, and 1908 had two hurricanes before the season! One in March and one in May.

I would also like to add 1951, which featured the Groundhog Day TS and Able.

[northjaxpro]

91L put down just over 1.25 inches of much.needed rainfall here at my home station as the rain is now tapering.off as the developing cyclone consoldates a bit farther off shore. This was a Godsend this system. This will at least put a temporary end to a drought here since the end of April.
_________________

EDIT, I jumped the gun just a bit. There is one more solid rain band working its way into Ponte Vedra and into extreme Eastern Duval County right now. This will move through the Jax area in the next 15-20 minutes. So, I will be adding to the rain total bbefore 91L gets farther offshore.

[BadLarry95]

The only question is if it can tighten up and shift a little East. The very broad center is just off shore Volusia county, but a northern trajectory would put it inland into Georgia within 18h

[northjaxpro]

The only question is if it can tighten up and shift a little East. The very broad center is just off shore Volusia county, but a northern trajectory would put it inland into Georgia within 18h

I think it will gradually move N/NE as we progress into the evening, thus it will have.just a bit more time.off the coast before landfall tomorrow afternoon. I think 91L will pull together well enough imo to become Bertha in the next 18 hours or so. We will see.

[xironman]

Well if there was anywhere it could make it ...

[MississippiWx]

This is a case where mesoscale models were able to pick up on possible TC development better than global models because of the small scale features that have led to our current setup. The persistent convection to the east was picked up well by mesoscale models which resulted in greater forcing for low pressure development there. Obviously, we still have a little ways to go, but this has been a very interesting sequence of events. It has certainly caught the NHC by surprise.

[northjaxpro]

Well if there was anywhere it could make it ...

https://i.imgur.com/ktfHf0V.gif

Yes indeed. Shear has dropped off considerably from earlier for sure.

[northjaxpro]

This is a case where mesoscale models were able to pick up on possible TC development better than global models because of the small scale features that have led to our current setup. The persistent convection to the east was picked up well by mesoscale models which resulted in greater forcing for low pressure development there. Obviously, we still have a little ways to go, but this has been a very interesting sequence of events. It has certainly caught the NHC by surprise.

Yeah I agree with you. I have to tip my hat to the NAM, which since late yesterday has been showing development farther off the coast. The mesoscale models , as with Arthur, performed rather well. Arthur 's origin was baroclinic , which enabled the mesoscale models to perform well with that cyclone.
But, again credit to NAM and the HRRR for their modeling with 91L.

[TheProfessor]

Some credit needs to be given to the GEPS, it sniffed out the tropical wave potentially developing into something well before any other model. Obviously it got location wrong, but that's not unusual 5-6 days out. Obviously it's not a depression yet, but it's definitely more than the very weak wave that wasn't even appearing on the other global models and their probabilistic forecasts.

[TheStormExpert]

Believe it or not Jupiter Island in extreme NE Palm Beach County is the hotspot for total rainfall over the past two days in South Florida. 10.44” fell there over just the past 48hrs.!

 https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/1265332338067570693

[TheStormExpert]

Only two seasons have featured two or more pre-June systems within the calendar-year: 1887 and 2012.

2016 would like to talk?

Someone didn’t do their research!

[northjaxpro]

Some credit needs to be given to the GEPS, it sniffed out the tropical wave potentially developing into something well before any other model. Obviously it got location wrong, but that's not unusual 5-6 days out. Obviously it's not a depression yet, but it's definitely more than the very weak wave that wasn't even appearing on the other global models and their probabilistic forecasts.

Definitely noted! Thanks Professor for bringing the GEPS to light as I overlooked it accidentally personally while analyzing the models the past couple of days.