ATL: BERTHA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 79.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of South
Carolina from Edisto Beach to South Santee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case in the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 830 AM EDT (1230 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 79.4 West. Bertha is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track the
center of Bertha will move onshore in the warning area in the next
few hours and the move inland across eastern and northern South
Carolina later today and into west-central North Carolina by
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression after moving
inland and become a remnant low tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across eastern and
central South Carolina into west central to far southeastern
North Carolina and southwest Virginia. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area in the next couple of hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




Tropical Storm Bertha Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking over the
past day or so has quickly become better organized this morning.
The circulation has become better defined and the center has
reformed beneath the area of deep convection just offshore of the
coast of South Carolina. Recent NWS Doppler radar data from
Charleston and buoy data indicates that the system is producing
tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Storm Bertha. The system will be moving
inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is
expected. Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken
rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday.

There is very little continuity on the initial motion since the
center has only recently formed. The best estimate of the initial
motion is 320/8 kt. The system should continue to move generally
northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located
over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

Key Messages:

1. Bertha is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
eastern and central South Carolina, west-central to far
southeastern North Carolina, and southwest Virginia. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash flooding.

2. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm winds to portions of
the South Carolina coast within the warning area in the next few
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1230Z 32.7N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 79.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of South
Carolina from Edisto Beach to South Santee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case for the next
few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 79.5 West. Bertha is
moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight with a
gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Bertha
will move inland across eastern and northern South Carolina later
today and into central North Carolina by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Bertha is expected
to weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant
low tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across eastern and
central South Carolina into west central to far southeastern North
Carolina and southwest Virginia. Given very saturated antecedent
conditions, this rainfall may produce life threatening flash
flooding, aggravate and prolong ongoing river flooding, and produce
rapid out of bank rises on smaller rivers.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue near the
coast for the next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven




Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The circulation of Bertha remained compact yet well-defined
through landfall, which occurred around 930 AM EDT near Mount
Pleasant, South Carolina. Buoy data around that time indicated
that maximum sustained winds had increased to around 45 kt.
Although the center has moved inland, a strong rain band with
onshore flow continues to slowly migrate northward along the South
Carolina coast. Therefore it is anticipated that
tropical-storm-force winds will remain possible in the warning area
over the next few hours. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression later today, then weaken to a remnant low tonight as the
center moves farther inland.

Model guidance is in good agreement on taking the weakening cyclone
north to north-northwestward through tonight, followed by a turn to
the north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed later on
Thursday. This official track is only slightly east of the previous
one and is near the multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across
portions of eastern to central South Carolina into west central to
far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia. Ongoing river
flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region.

2. Bertha is expected to continue to bring tropical storm winds to
portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area over
next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 33.3N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 35.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1200Z 38.8N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven

[cycloneye]

Last advisory.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Bertha Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...CENTER OF BERTHA MOVING FARTHER INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 80.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bertha
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 80.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph
(24 km/h). A turn toward the north at a faster forward speed is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on
Thursday. On the forecast track, Bertha will move across northern
South Carolina this evening and into central North Carolina and
southwestern Virginia later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts, mainly along the coast to the east of the
center. Additional weakening is expected, and Bertha is forecast
to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across northeastern
South Carolina into west central to far southeastern North Carolina
and southwest Virginia. Given very saturated antecedent
conditions, this rainfall may produce life threatening flash
flooding, aggravate and prolong ongoing river flooding, and produce
rapid out of bank rises on smaller rivers.

WIND: Gusty winds will continue over portions of eastern South
Carolina this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 11 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header
WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Bertha Advisory Number 4
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022020
1100 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...CENTER OF BERTHA MOVING FARTHER INLAND WHILE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO WEST VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 80.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF ROANOKE VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect across northeast South
Carolina, southern and west-central North Carolina, southwest
Virginia, and southwestern West Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bertha
was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 80.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this
motion is expected to accelerate and turn north-northeast on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Bertha is
expected to dissipate Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches
across northeastern South Carolina into sections of North Carolina
and southwest Virginia. Given very saturated antecedent conditions,
this rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding, aggravate
and prolong ongoing river flooding, and produce rapid out of bank
rises on smaller rivers.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible across the higher elevations
of southwest Virginia and West Virginia as Bertha progresses across
the Appalachians.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 36.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 39.1N 80.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/0000Z 44.1N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bertha Advisory Number 5
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022020
500 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

...BERTHA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHWARD...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 80.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF ROANOKE VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for central West Virginia
and a small part of coastal North Carolina through early morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bertha
was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 80.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 28 mph (44
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through midday
Thursday, followed by a turn to the north-northeast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bertha is expected to weaken and dissipate by Thursday
evening as it crosses the eastern Great Lakes.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of around one inch from West Virginia through eastern Ohio,
southern and western Pennsylvania and far western New York, and 1
to 2 inches from South Carolina across eastern North Carolina into
southeast Virginia. Isolated maximum storm total amounts of 4
inches are possible in southern Pennsylvania and parts of the
Carolinas and southeast Virginia. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flash flooding, aggravate and prolong ongoing river
flooding, and produce rapid out of bank rises on smaller rivers.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible across the higher elevations
of southwest Virginia and West Virginia as Bertha progresses across
the Appalachians.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Burke

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 38.3N 80.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 28/1800Z 41.8N 80.0W 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bertha Advisory Number 6
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022020
1100 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

...EXTRATROPICAL BERTHA MOVING NORTH TOWARD CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 80.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...280 KM SSW OF BUFFALO NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of
post-tropical/extratropical cyclone Bertha was located near
latitude 40.8 North, longitude 80.2 West. The cyclone is moving
toward the north near 30 mph (48 km/h) and will gradually
accelerate as the poorly defined center of circulation moves into
Canada later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Bertha
will contribute to scattered heavy downpours but the overall flash
flood risk will remain marginal across western Pennsylvania and New
York this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction
Center on Bertha.

$$
Forecaster Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 40.8N 80.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 29/0000Z 44.7N 79.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW